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Model Records — 2026
Every model's pick on every game · paper · updated Jul 02, 02:03 AM ET
Season standings (all 2026) — sorted by underdog ROI
Model Overall ROI Dogs Dog ROI Favs Fav ROI LOGISTIC (baseline) 263-227 -4.8% 48-42 +14.2% 215-185 -7.7% LOGISTIC blended 267-224 -2.4% 48-52 +3.5% 219-172 -3.5% LOGISTIC L30D 255-239 -5.8% 54-72 -7.3% 201-167 -5.5% LightGBM 236-254 -12.2% 50-71 -9.5% 186-183 -12.8% CatBoost 169-174 -11.5% 29-41 -10.8% 140-133 -11.6% XGBoost 168-188 -12.8% 41-62 -12.6% 127-126 -12.8%
Games — 2026-07-02
PIT@PHI
2026-07-02 · Thu 12:36 PM ET · pregame
Model Pick Win% W/L Units LOGISTIC L30D PHI ? 51% · — LOGISTIC blended PHI ? 53% · —
CIN@MIL
2026-07-02 · Thu 02:11 PM ET · pregame
Model Pick Win% W/L Units CatBoost MIL ? 55% · — LOGISTIC (baseline) CIN ? 51% · — LOGISTIC L30D MIL ? 57% · — LOGISTIC blended MIL ? 51% · — LightGBM MIL ? 54% · — XGBoost MIL ? 53% · —
MIA@COL
2026-07-02 · Thu 03:11 PM ET · pregame
Model Pick Win% W/L Units CatBoost COL ? 52% · — LOGISTIC (baseline) MIA ? 52% · — LOGISTIC L30D MIA ? 57% · — LOGISTIC blended MIA ? 60% · — LightGBM COL ? 52% · — XGBoost COL ? 53% · —
CWS@CLE
2026-07-02 · Thu 06:41 PM ET · pregame
Model Pick Win% W/L Units CatBoost CLE ? 51% · — LOGISTIC (baseline) CLE ? 51% · — LOGISTIC L30D CLE ? 54% · — LOGISTIC blended CLE ? 53% · — LightGBM CLE ? 51% · — XGBoost CLE ? 53% · —
STL@ATL
2026-07-02 · Thu 07:16 PM ET · pregame
Model Pick Win% W/L Units CatBoost STL ? 51% · — LOGISTIC (baseline) ATL ? 51% · — LOGISTIC L30D STL ? 53% · — LOGISTIC blended STL ? 52% · — LightGBM ATL ? 52% · — XGBoost ATL ? 53% · —
TB@KC
2026-07-02 · Thu 07:41 PM ET · pregame
Model Pick Win% W/L Units CatBoost TB ? 52% · — LOGISTIC (baseline) TB ? 54% · — LOGISTIC L30D TB ? 52% · — LOGISTIC blended TB ? 52% · — LightGBM TB ? 51% · — XGBoost KC ? 53% · —
DET@TEX
2026-07-02 · Thu 08:06 PM ET · pregame
Model Pick Win% W/L Units CatBoost TEX ? 59% · — LOGISTIC (baseline) TEX ? 51% · — LOGISTIC L30D TEX ? 52% · — LOGISTIC blended TEX ? 56% · — LightGBM TEX ? 56% · — XGBoost TEX ? 53% · —
LAA@SEA
2026-07-02 · Thu 09:41 PM ET · pregame
Model Pick Win% W/L Units LOGISTIC L30D SEA ? 57% · — LOGISTIC blended SEA ? 52% · —
SD@LAD
2026-07-02 · Thu 10:11 PM ET · pregame
Model Pick Win% W/L Units CatBoost LAD ? 60% · — LOGISTIC (baseline) SD ? 50% · — LOGISTIC L30D LAD ? 51% · — LOGISTIC blended LAD ? 54% · — LightGBM LAD ? 55% · — XGBoost LAD ? 53% · —
Each model's pick = the side it favored to win, on EVERY game (no edge filter). Graded vs the locked final, staked favorites bet-to-win-1u, underdogs risk-1u . Prices are the opening line. PAPER ONLY — research, not bet recommendations. Betting every game pays the vig on every game, so negative totals are expected.