Model Records — 2026

Every model's pick on every game · paper · updated Jul 02, 02:03 AM ET

Season standings (all 2026) — sorted by underdog ROI

ModelOverallROIDogsDog ROIFavsFav ROI
LOGISTIC (baseline)263-227-4.8%48-42+14.2%215-185-7.7%
LOGISTIC blended267-224-2.4%48-52+3.5%219-172-3.5%
LOGISTIC L30D255-239-5.8%54-72-7.3%201-167-5.5%
LightGBM236-254-12.2%50-71-9.5%186-183-12.8%
CatBoost169-174-11.5%29-41-10.8%140-133-11.6%
XGBoost168-188-12.8%41-62-12.6%127-126-12.8%

Games — 2026-06-11

07-03 07-02 07-01 06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11
STL@NYM
2026-06-11 · Thu 01:11 PM ET · STL 4 — NYM 5 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
no model predictions
ARI@MIA
2026-06-11 · Thu 01:11 PM ET · ARI 0 — MIA 2 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
no model predictions
MIN@DET
2026-06-11 · Thu 01:11 PM ET · MIN 0 — DET 11 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
no model predictions
TEX@KC
2026-06-11 · Thu 02:11 PM ET · TEX 4 — KC 2 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
no model predictions
CHC@COL
2026-06-11 · Thu 03:11 PM ET · CHC 9 — COL 3 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
no model predictions
LAD@PIT
2026-06-11 · Thu 06:41 PM ET · LAD 8 — PIT 6 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostPIT +12651%✗-1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)PIT +12652%✗-1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DLAD -14850%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedPIT +12650%✗-1.00u
LightGBMPIT +12651%✗-1.00u
XGBoostPIT +12653%✗-1.00u
SEA@BAL
2026-06-11 · Thu 07:06 PM ET · SEA 5 — BAL 7 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostBAL -10550%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)BAL -10555%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DSEA -11056%✗-1.10u
LOGISTIC blendedSEA -11050%✗-1.10u
LightGBMSEA -11055%✗-1.10u
XGBoostBAL -10552%✓+1.00u
Each model's pick = the side it favored to win, on EVERY game (no edge filter). Graded vs the locked final, staked favorites bet-to-win-1u, underdogs risk-1u. Prices are the opening line. PAPER ONLY — research, not bet recommendations. Betting every game pays the vig on every game, so negative totals are expected.