ALIBI MLB · Model Records

Model	Overall	ROI	Dogs	Dog ROI	Favs	Fav ROI
LOGISTIC (baseline)	263-227	-4.8%	48-42	+14.2%	215-185	-7.7%
LOGISTIC blended	267-224	-2.4%	48-52	+3.5%	219-172	-3.5%
LOGISTIC L30D	255-239	-5.8%	54-72	-7.3%	201-167	-5.5%
LightGBM	236-254	-12.2%	50-71	-9.5%	186-183	-12.8%
CatBoost	169-174	-11.5%	29-41	-10.8%	140-133	-11.6%
XGBoost	168-188	-12.8%	41-62	-12.6%	127-126	-12.8%

Games — 2026-06-23

HOU@TOR

2026-06-23 · Tue 04:08 PM ET · HOU 9 — TOR 7 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
LOGISTIC L30D	TOR -140	53%	✗	-1.40u
LOGISTIC blended	TOR -140	57%	✗	-1.40u

KC@TB

2026-06-23 · Tue 06:41 PM ET · KC 12 — TB 5 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
LOGISTIC L30D	KC +158	51%	✓	+1.58u
LOGISTIC blended	TB -189	52%	✗	-1.89u

SEA@PIT

2026-06-23 · Tue 06:41 PM ET · SEA 3 — PIT 2 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	PIT +100	53%	✗	-1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	PIT +100	52%	✗	-1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	PIT +100	55%	✗	-1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	PIT +100	54%	✗	-1.00u
LightGBM	PIT +100	51%	✗	-1.00u
XGBoost	PIT +100	53%	✗	-1.00u

TEX@MIA

2026-06-23 · Tue 06:41 PM ET · TEX 4 — MIA 6 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	MIA -154	55%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	MIA -154	56%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	MIA -154	62%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	MIA -154	57%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM	MIA -154	53%	✓	+1.00u
XGBoost	MIA -154	53%	✓	+1.00u

NYY@DET

2026-06-23 · Tue 06:41 PM ET · NYY 4 — DET 3 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	DET -103	51%	✗	-1.03u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	NYY -114	50%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	NYY -114	51%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	DET -103	52%	✗	-1.03u
LightGBM	DET -103	50%	✗	-1.03u
XGBoost	DET -103	53%	✗	-1.03u

PHI@WSH

2026-06-23 · Tue 06:46 PM ET · PHI 14 — WSH 9 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	WSH +141	55%	✗	-1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	PHI -165	52%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	PHI -165	51%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	PHI -165	57%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM	PHI -165	50%	✓	+1.00u
XGBoost	WSH +141	53%	✗	-1.00u

CHC@NYM

2026-06-23 · Tue 07:11 PM ET · CHC 9 — NYM 6 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	CHC +118	50%	✓	+1.18u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	NYM -142	52%	✗	-1.42u
LOGISTIC L30D	NYM -142	57%	✗	-1.42u
LOGISTIC blended	NYM -142	50%	✗	-1.42u
LightGBM	CHC +118	52%	✓	+1.18u
XGBoost	NYM -142	53%	✗	-1.42u

MIL@CIN

2026-06-23 · Tue 07:11 PM ET · MIL 2 — CIN 0 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	CIN +101	54%	✗	-1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	CIN +101	59%	✗	-1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	CIN +101	56%	✗	-1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	CIN +101	59%	✗	-1.00u
LightGBM	CIN +101	51%	✗	-1.00u
XGBoost	CIN +101	53%	✗	-1.00u

LAD@MIN

2026-06-23 · Tue 07:41 PM ET · LAD 12 — MIN 3 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	MIN +116	55%	✗	-1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	MIN +116	55%	✗	-1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	LAD -135	52%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	LAD -135	56%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM	MIN +116	56%	✗	-1.00u
XGBoost	MIN +116	54%	✗	-1.00u

CLE@CWS

2026-06-23 · Tue 07:41 PM ET · CLE 1 — CWS 2 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	CWS -104	56%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	CWS -104	56%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	CWS -104	58%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	CWS -104	56%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM	CWS -104	55%	✓	+1.00u
XGBoost	CWS -104	53%	✓	+1.00u

ARI@STL

2026-06-23 · Tue 07:46 PM ET · ARI 4 — STL 3 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	STL -111	57%	✗	-1.11u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	STL -111	54%	✗	-1.11u
LOGISTIC L30D	STL -111	57%	✗	-1.11u
LOGISTIC blended	STL -111	57%	✗	-1.11u
LightGBM	STL -111	55%	✗	-1.11u
XGBoost	STL -111	53%	✗	-1.11u

BOS@COL

2026-06-23 · Tue 08:41 PM ET · BOS 5 — COL 2 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
LOGISTIC L30D	BOS -163	60%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	BOS -163	58%	✓	+1.00u

BAL@LAA

2026-06-23 · Tue 09:39 PM ET · BAL 1 — LAA 5 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	LAA +135	51%	✓	+1.35u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	BAL -159	51%	✗	-1.59u
LOGISTIC L30D	LAA +135	52%	✓	+1.35u
LOGISTIC blended	LAA +135	52%	✓	+1.35u
LightGBM	BAL -159	50%	✗	-1.59u
XGBoost	LAA +135	53%	✓	+1.35u

ATL@SD

2026-06-23 · Tue 09:40 PM ET · ATL 6 — SD 7 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
LOGISTIC L30D	SD -104	50%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	SD -104	55%	✓	+1.00u

OAK@SF

2026-06-23 · Tue 09:46 PM ET · OAK 1 — SF 3 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	SF -122	54%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	SF -122	59%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	SF -122	66%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	SF -122	64%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM	SF -122	53%	✓	+1.00u
XGBoost	SF -122	53%	✓	+1.00u

Each model's pick = the side it favored to win, on EVERY game (no edge filter). Graded vs the locked final, staked favorites bet-to-win-1u, underdogs risk-1u. Prices are the opening line. PAPER ONLY — research, not bet recommendations. Betting every game pays the vig on every game, so negative totals are expected.

Model Records — 2026

Season standings (all 2026) — sorted by underdog ROI

Games — 2026-06-23