ALIBI MLB · Model Outputs

Every model's daily output on one page — today's and tomorrow's slate with the Pinnacle opening line and all ten models' picks per game (a cell is highlighted when its pick clears 7% EV vs the opening line), plus yesterday's results and each model's settled record and units up/down.

Opening line — the locked Pinnacle opening line; until that opens (Pinnacle openings lock once daily, 13:00 UTC) the current DraftKings line is shown instead, tagged · DK — Dave 2026-05-17 rule: use DraftKings until the Pinnacle line opens. Model cells show each model’s favored side and its own line (fair odds for moneyline, projected total for totals). Green highlight = a moneyline pick clears a 7% EV gate priced at the shown opening line (model probability × that line’s decimal odds − 1 ≥ 0.07); the cell shows the EV. Totals are not flagged as bets — the totals market is efficient (no out-of-sample edge), so each totals cell shows the model’s lean, its projected total, and its honest Over/Under chance from a right-skewed (Negative-Binomial) model of game total runs (spread = trailing-365-day SD, σ = 4.48). A blank model cell (—) for the main-pipeline models means that model abstained — a starting pitcher has no prior-season record and we do not fill missing pitcher stats with a league average (no-imputation rule). The three logit/ridge challengers (blended, all_l30d) do the opposite — they cannot take a blank input, so when a starter’s last-30-day rate stats are missing (xFIP / K9 / wOBA-allowed — absent for ~half of all starters) they substitute the league average, flagged “⚠ league-avg fill”; it appears on most games for those models and means the cell’s pitcher read is partly league-average, not starter-specific. A screen of raw pick value at the opening number — not the production bet rule (no stake sizing, no line-shopping).

Today — 2026-07-02 (9 games)

Moneyline models — favored side, model fair odds, EV vs the opening line

Game	Opening line	ml_logit_baseline	ml_lgbm	ml_xgb	ml_catboost	ml_logit_blended	ml_logit_all_l30d
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers	DET +113 / TEX -125 · Pin	TEX -104	TEX -128	TEX -113	TEX -142	TEX -126 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters	TEX -108 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners	LAA +178 / SEA -200 · Pin	—	—	—	—	SEA -109 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters	SEA -132 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies	PIT +114 / PHI -127 · Pin	—	—	—	—	PHI -112 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters	PHI -102 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	CIN +169 / MIL -189 · Pin	CIN -105 +37.7% EV	MIL -117	MIL -112	MIL -121	MIL -105 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters	MIL -133 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers	SD +167 / LAD -189 · Pin	SD -101 +34.5% EV	LAD -123	LAD -113	LAD -153	LAD -120 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters	LAD -106 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals	TB -120 / KC +100 · DK	TB -116	TB -104	KC -112	TB -108	TB -109 ⚠ league-avg fill — home starter	TB -108 ⚠ league-avg fill — home starter
Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies	MIA -127 / COL +104 · DK	MIA -110	COL -110	COL -111 +7.3% EV	COL -108	MIA -149 ⚠ league-avg fill — away starter	MIA -132 ⚠ league-avg fill — away starter
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians	CWS -116 / CLE +105 · Pin	CLE -106	CLE -105	CLE -113 +8.5% EV	CLE -105	CLE -115 +9.6% EV	CLE -116 +10.1% EV
St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves	STL -105 / ATL -115 · DK	ATL -102	ATL -110	ATL -113	STL -103	STL -109 ⚠ league-avg fill — home starter	STL -114 ⚠ league-avg fill — home starter

Totals models — Over/Under, model projected total, EV vs the opening line

Game	Opening line	totals_ridge	totals_lgbm	totals_xgb	totals_ridge_all_l30d
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers	7.5 O -112 / U -102 · Pin	OVER model 8.36 52% chance	OVER model 8.75 56% chance	OVER model 9.71 66% chance	OVER model 8.45 53% chance ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners	7.5 O -102 / U -112 · Pin	—	—	—	OVER model 7.77 46% chance ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies	10.0 O -109 / U -105 · Pin	—	—	—	UNDER model 9.58 63% chance ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	6.5 O -120 / U +105 · Pin	OVER model 8.72 65% chance	OVER model 8.72 65% chance	OVER model 10.08 78% chance	OVER model 8.64 65% chance ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers	9.0 O +102 / U -116 · Pin	OVER model 9.13 42% chance	OVER model 9.11 42% chance	OVER model 10.22 52% chance	OVER model 9.24 43% chance ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals	10.5 O -105 / U -115 · DK	UNDER model 8.90 68% chance	UNDER model 9.49 63% chance	UNDER model 10.10 58% chance	UNDER model 8.85 69% chance ⚠ league-avg fill — home starter
Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies	12.0 O -109 / U -111 · DK	UNDER model 10.69 69% chance	UNDER model 11.16 65% chance	OVER model 12.59 48% chance	UNDER model 11.31 64% chance ⚠ league-avg fill — away starter
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians	8.5 O -115 / U +101 · Pin	UNDER model 8.43 56% chance	OVER model 9.24 52% chance	OVER model 10.49 64% chance	UNDER model 8.39 57% chance
St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves	9.0 O -108 / U -112 · DK	UNDER model 8.79 61% chance	UNDER model 8.59 63% chance	OVER model 9.03 41% chance	UNDER model 8.10 67% chance ⚠ league-avg fill — home starter

Tomorrow — 2026-07-03 (12 games)

Moneyline models — favored side, model fair odds, EV vs the opening line

Game	Opening line	ml_logit_baseline	ml_lgbm	ml_xgb	ml_catboost	ml_logit_blended	ml_logit_all_l30d
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals	—	—	—	—	—	WSH -106 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters	PIT -117 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners	—	—	—	—	—	TOR -117 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters	TOR -107 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees	—	—	—	—	—	MIN -103 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters	NYY -127 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers	—	LAD -111	LAD -138	LAD -115	LAD -173	LAD -164 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters	LAD -105 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels	—	—	—	—	—	LAA -115 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters	LAA -101 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros	—	—	—	—	—	HOU -100 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters	HOU -108 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies	—	—	—	—	—	COL -102 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters	SF -128 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians	—	—	—	—	—	CLE -135 ⚠ league-avg fill — home starter	CLE -105 ⚠ league-avg fill — home starter
Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds	—	BAL -106	CIN -102	CIN -113	CIN -112	CIN -102 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters	CIN -109 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	—	CHC -111	CHC -111	CHC -113	CHC -128	CHC -147 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters	CHC -135 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	—	—	—	—	—	ATL -115 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters	ATL -107 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	—	—	—	—	—	MIL -112 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters	MIL -106 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters

Totals models — Over/Under, model projected total, EV vs the opening line

Game	Opening line	totals_ridge	totals_lgbm	totals_xgb	totals_ridge_all_l30d
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals	—	—	—	—	no pick model 9.84 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners	—	—	—	—	no pick model 7.68 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees	—	—	—	—	no pick model 9.24 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers	—	no pick model 9.17	no pick model 8.56	no pick model 9.73	no pick model 9.11 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels	—	—	—	—	no pick model 9.23 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros	—	—	—	—	no pick model 8.97 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies	—	—	—	—	no pick model 11.16 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians	—	—	—	—	no pick model 8.45 ⚠ league-avg fill — home starter
Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds	—	no pick model 8.91	no pick model 9.33	no pick model 8.65	no pick model 8.84 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	—	no pick model 8.59	no pick model 10.67	no pick model 10.80	no pick model 8.92 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	—	—	—	—	no pick model 8.63 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	—	—	—	—	no pick model 9.54 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters

Yesterday — 2026-07-01 (9 games, final)

Moneyline models — pick + result (✓ won / ✗ lost)

Game (final)	ml_logit_baseline	ml_lgbm	ml_xgb	ml_catboost	ml_logit_blended	ml_logit_all_l30d
New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays final 3–9	NYM ✗	TOR ✓	TOR ✓	TOR ✓	TOR ✓	NYM ✗
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies final 6–10	PIT ✗	PHI ✓	PHI ✓	PHI ✓	PHI ✓	PIT ✗
Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees final 6–2	NYY ✗	NYY ✗	NYY ✗	NYY ✗	NYY ✗	NYY ✗
Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals final 4–0	—	—	—	—	KC ✗	KC ✗
Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Guardians final 4–9	CLE ✓	TEX ✗	CLE ✓	CLE ✓	CLE ✓	CLE ✓
San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs final 3–23	CHC ✓	CHC ✓	CHC ✓	CHC ✓	CHC ✓	CHC ✓
Washington Nationals @ Boston Red Sox final 10–2	BOS ✗	WSH ✓	BOS ✗	BOS ✗	BOS ✗	BOS ✗
Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles final 1–6	—	—	—	—	BAL ✓	BAL ✓
St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves final 1–5	STL ✗	STL ✗	ATL ✓	STL ✗	STL ✗	STL ✗

Totals models — pick + result (✓ won / ✗ lost / P push)

Game (final)	totals_ridge	totals_lgbm	totals_xgb	totals_ridge_all_l30d
New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays final 3–9	O 8.5 ✓	O 8.5 ✓	O 8.5 ✓	O 8.5 ✓
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies final 6–10	O 8.0 ✓	O 8.0 ✓	O 8.0 ✓	O 8.0 ✓
Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees final 6–2	U 10.0 ✓	U 10.0 ✓	U 10.0 ✓	U 10.0 ✓
Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals final 4–0	—	—	—	U 10.0 ✓
Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Guardians final 4–9	U 8.5 ✗	U 8.5 ✗	U 8.5 ✗	U 8.5 ✗
San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs final 3–23	U 12.0 ✗	U 12.0 ✗	O 12.0 ✓	U 12.0 ✗
Washington Nationals @ Boston Red Sox final 10–2	U 10.0 ✗	U 10.0 ✗	O 10.0 ✓	U 10.0 ✗
Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles final 1–6	—	—	—	U 10.5 ✓
St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves final 1–5	U 9.0 ✓	U 9.0 ✓	U 9.0 ✓	U 9.0 ✓

Yesterday — per-model tally

Model	Yesterday — units (record)
ml_logit_baseline	-3.29u (2W-5L, 28.6% on n=7)
ml_lgbm	+0.85u (4W-3L, 57.1% on n=7)
ml_xgb	+2.25u (5W-2L, 71.4% on n=7)
ml_catboost	+0.47u (4W-3L, 57.1% on n=7)
ml_logit_blended	-0.53u (4W-4L, 50.0% on n=8)
ml_logit_all_l30d	-4.29u (2W-6L, 25.0% on n=8)
totals_ridge	+0.60u (4W-3L, 57.1% on n=7)
totals_lgbm	+0.60u (4W-3L, 57.1% on n=7)
totals_xgb	+4.48u (6W-1L, 85.7% on n=7)
totals_ridge_all_l30d	+2.47u (6W-3L, 66.7% on n=9)

Model results — settled record & units up/down

Units up/down = cumulative profit/loss in flat 1-unit bets on the model’s pick side at the Pinnacle opening line (a win pays decimal odds − 1 units, a loss is −1u, a totals push is 0u). Rookie-pitcher abstentions and picks with no Pinnacle opening line are excluded. W-L and n count only settled picks that carried a priced bet. This scores the pick signal at the opening number — it is not the production bet rule. Records were reset to a fresh start on 2026-05-18 — only games on or after that date are counted.

Moneyline models

Model	What it is	Since 5/18 reset — units (record)	Last 30 days — units (record)
ml_logit_baseline	Logistic regression Moneyline baseline — the stable reference model.	-16.22u (207W-186L, 52.7% on n=393)	-3.30u (146W-126L, 53.7% on n=272)
ml_lgbm	LightGBM Moneyline — primary gradient-boosted tree model.	-22.22u (199W-194L, 50.6% on n=393)	-21.40u (134W-138L, 49.3% on n=272)
ml_xgb	XGBoost Moneyline — XGBoost tree challenger.	-16.97u (202W-191L, 51.4% on n=393)	+3.29u (147W-125L, 54.0% on n=272)
ml_catboost	CatBoost Moneyline — CatBoost tree challenger.	-20.75u (204W-189L, 51.9% on n=393)	-2.94u (146W-126L, 53.7% on n=272)
ml_logit_blended	Logistic regression Moneyline — blended-recipe challenger.	-12.20u (307W-265L, 53.7% on n=572)	+3.25u (208W-171L, 54.9% on n=379)
ml_logit_all_l30d	Logistic regression Moneyline — ALL_L30D challenger (last-30-day recency window).	-22.98u (260W-246L, 51.4% on n=506)	-13.51u (195W-184L, 51.5% on n=379)

Totals models

Model	What it is	Since 5/18 reset — units (record)	Last 30 days — units (record)
totals_ridge	Ridge regression Totals (combined run total) baseline.	-33.73u (173W-195L, 25P, 47.0% on n=393)	-15.78u (125W-132L, 15P, 48.6% on n=272)
totals_lgbm	LightGBM Totals — primary gradient-boosted tree model.	-30.15u (175W-193L, 25P, 47.6% on n=393)	-13.96u (126W-131L, 15P, 49.0% on n=272)
totals_xgb	XGBoost Totals — XGBoost tree challenger.	-4.91u (188W-180L, 25P, 51.1% on n=393)	-0.63u (133W-124L, 15P, 51.8% on n=272)
totals_ridge_all_l30d	Ridge regression Totals — ALL_L30D challenger (last-30-day recency window).	-7.09u (246W-235L, 26P, 51.1% on n=507)	+3.87u (189W-171L, 20P, 52.5% on n=380)

Picks. Moneyline pick = the side the model favors (home when p(home) > 0.500, away when below); the fair odds are vig-free American odds from the model probability. A p(home) of exactly 0 or 1 is a rookie-pitcher abstention (no feature row) — shown as no pick, never a guessed side. Totals pick = Over when the model's expected total is above the Pinnacle opening total, Under when below.
Units up/down basis. 1 unit flat on the model's pick side at the Pinnacle opening line: a win pays that line's decimal profit (decimal odds minus 1), a loss is −1u, a totals push is 0u; summed over every settled pick that has a Pinnacle opening line. Rookie-pitcher abstentions and picks with no opening line carry no priced bet and are excluded from the P&L and the W/L count. This scores the raw pick signal at the opening number — it is not the production bet rule (no EV gate, no stake sizing).
Predictions from model.predictions (latest ok run per game). Final scores from mart.fact_game; Pinnacle opening lines from mart.pinnacle_opens_h2h_locked / mart.pinnacle_totals_opens_locked (locked + verified daily). Read-only page — it changes no model and places no bet.