ALIBI MLB · Side-Model Calibrated

Per-game per-model pick (American odds) + per-side edge vs opening line. Side model — not the live betting strategy.

TodayTomorrow
Snapshot 1:26 AM ET · Jul 2 · manual refresh only
Pick date:Gotodaytomorrow
Date: 2026-07-03 · 13 games · primary model marked with *
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals
Pittsburgh Pirates (away) · Open — / Curr —
Washington Nationals (home) · Foster Griffin · Open — / Curr —
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Foster Griffin (home)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — Pittsburgh Pirates (away) — / — +106 -116 —
Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners
Toronto Blue Jays (away) · Dylan Cease · Open — / Curr —
Seattle Mariners (home) · Open — / Curr —
⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — Toronto Blue Jays (away) — / — -117 -116 —
Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees
Minnesota Twins (away) · Mike Paredes velo -1.08 · Open — / Curr —
New York Yankees (home) · Gerrit Cole · Open — / Curr —
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Gerrit Cole (home), Mike Paredes (away)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — Minnesota Twins (away) — / — -103 -116 —
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres (away) · Michael King · Open — / Curr —
Los Angeles Dodgers (home) · Shohei Ohtani · Open — / Curr —
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — Los Angeles Dodgers (home) — / — -111 -106 —
ml_lgbm — Los Angeles Dodgers (home) — / — -138 -136 —
ml_xgb — Los Angeles Dodgers (home) — / — -115 -107 —
ml_catboost — Los Angeles Dodgers (home) — / — -173 -130 —
ml_logit_blended — Los Angeles Dodgers (home) — / — -164 -141 —
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels
Boston Red Sox (away) · Jake Bennett · Open — / Curr —
Los Angeles Angels (home) · Open — / Curr —
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Jake Bennett (away)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — Los Angeles Angels (home) — / — -115 -138 —
Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros
Tampa Bay Rays (away) · Open — / Curr —
Houston Astros (home) · Spencer Arrighetti velo -1.61 · Open — / Curr —
⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — Tampa Bay Rays (away) — / — +100 -116 —
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants (away) · Open — / Curr —
Colorado Rockies (home) · Open — / Curr —
⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — San Francisco Giants (away) — / — +102 -116 —
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
Chicago White Sox (away) · Anthony Kay · Open — / Curr —
Cleveland Guardians (home) · Gavin Williams · Open — / Curr —
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Anthony Kay (away)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — Cleveland Guardians (home) — / — -135 -141 —
Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds
Baltimore Orioles (away) · Trevor Rogers · Open — / Curr —
Cincinnati Reds (home) · Brady Singer · Open — / Curr —
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — Baltimore Orioles (away) — / — -106 -113 —
ml_lgbm — Baltimore Orioles (away) — / — +102 -108 —
ml_xgb — Cincinnati Reds (home) — / — -113 -107 —
ml_catboost — Cincinnati Reds (home) — / — -112 -109 —
ml_logit_blended — Baltimore Orioles (away) — / — +102 -116 —
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals (away) · Andre Pallante · Open — / Curr —
Chicago Cubs (home) · David Peterson · Open — / Curr —
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — Chicago Cubs (home) — / — -111 -106 —
ml_lgbm — St. Louis Cardinals (away) — / — +111 -108 —
ml_xgb — Chicago Cubs (home) — / — -113 -107 —
ml_catboost — Chicago Cubs (home) — / — -128 -109 —
ml_logit_blended — Chicago Cubs (home) — / — -147 -141 —
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
New York Mets (away) · Christian Scott · Open — / Curr —
Atlanta Braves (home) · Grant Holmes · Open — / Curr —
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Christian Scott (away)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — Atlanta Braves (home) — / — -115 -138 —
Miami Marlins @ Athletics
Miami Marlins (away) · Open — / Curr —
Athletics (home) · Jack Perkins velo -1.32 · Open — / Curr —
⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — Miami Marlins (away) — / — +104 -116 —
Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Milwaukee Brewers (away) · Open — / Curr —
Arizona Diamondbacks (home) · Jose Cabrera · Open — / Curr —
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Jose Cabrera (home)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — Milwaukee Brewers (away) — / — -112 -116 —

Totals

Per-game totals models with Pinnacle open line + OVER/UNDER pick + edge in runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals
Totals — Pinnacle open: — (O — / U —)
Pitcher-based models abstained (rookie / thin-data starter) - team-level model (l30d) shown.
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_ridge_all_l30d 9.84 — — —
Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners
Totals — Pinnacle open: — (O — / U —)
Pitcher-based models abstained (rookie / thin-data starter) - team-level model (l30d) shown.
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_ridge_all_l30d 7.68 — — —
Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees
Totals — Pinnacle open: — (O — / U —)
Pitcher-based models abstained (rookie / thin-data starter) - team-level model (l30d) shown.
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_ridge_all_l30d 9.24 — — —
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Totals — Pinnacle open: — (O — / U —)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.56 — — —
totals_xgb 9.73 — — —
totals_ridge 9.17 — — —
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels
Totals — Pinnacle open: — (O — / U —)
Pitcher-based models abstained (rookie / thin-data starter) - team-level model (l30d) shown.
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_ridge_all_l30d 9.23 — — —
Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros
Totals — Pinnacle open: — (O — / U —)
Pitcher-based models abstained (rookie / thin-data starter) - team-level model (l30d) shown.
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_ridge_all_l30d 8.97 — — —
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies
Totals — Pinnacle open: — (O — / U —)
Pitcher-based models abstained (rookie / thin-data starter) - team-level model (l30d) shown.
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_ridge_all_l30d 11.16 — — —
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
Totals — Pinnacle open: — (O — / U —)
Pitcher-based models abstained (rookie / thin-data starter) - team-level model (l30d) shown.
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_ridge_all_l30d 8.45 — — —
Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds
Totals — Pinnacle open: — (O — / U —)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 9.33 — — —
totals_xgb 8.65 — — —
totals_ridge 8.91 — — —
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
Totals — Pinnacle open: — (O — / U —)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 10.67 — — —
totals_xgb 10.80 — — —
totals_ridge 8.59 — — —
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
Totals — Pinnacle open: — (O — / U —)
Pitcher-based models abstained (rookie / thin-data starter) - team-level model (l30d) shown.
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_ridge_all_l30d 8.63 — — —
Miami Marlins @ Athletics
No totals data for this game.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Totals — Pinnacle open: — (O — / U —)
Pitcher-based models abstained (rookie / thin-data starter) - team-level model (l30d) shown.
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_ridge_all_l30d 9.54 — — —

CLV (Closing Line Value, 30d)

Per-model rolling 30-day mean CLV in cents on the OPENING-line pick side, computed at the Pinnacle CLOSE. Positive = market converged toward our pick. Negative = market moved away. Diagnostic only — calibrated accuracy is the betting north star.

ModelnCLV (cents)±SEM
ml_logit_baseline272+0.06±0.13
ml_lgbm272+0.06±0.13
ml_xgb272-0.05±0.13
ml_catboost272-0.08±0.13
ml_logit_blended382+0.05±0.11
ml_lgbm_walkforward_v170+0.63±0.25
ml_logit_all_l30d374+0.11±0.11
ml_lr3292+0.10±0.12
All probabilities calibrated via per-model IsotonicRegression fit on completed games in the last 365 days. Models whose calibrator was trained on fewer than 50 samples are suppressed entirely from the page (under-trained — see the "Hidden models" note above, when present). Rows where the calibrator has a flat plateau ±5pp around the raw probability are hidden (out-of-distribution: the isotonic has no training data anchored there, so the calibrated value would be interpolation, not signal). Per-side edge = cents_basis(pinnacle_open) − cents_basis(fair_american_from_calibrated_p), computed on home and away independently (vig affects each side, so we don't sign-flip). Pick = side with the larger edge. "Open / Current" shows Pinnacle's opening American line (source: mart.pinnacle_opens_h2h_locked, verified daily) and the latest live line (source: stg.odds_h2h_paired — Pinnacle preferred, else DraftKings as the early placeholder until Pinnacle opens) on the pick side. Edge math uses the OPEN, not the current. 10c edge = "strong" highlight (mirrors production cents_gap_rule, Dave msg 2228). This page does not factor in cents_gap_rule's full bet-rule logic — it shows raw per-side edge from calibrated probabilities only.