ALIBI MLB · Totals

The combined-runs (Over/Under) page — today's and tomorrow's totals slate with every totals model's pick, then each model's settled record and a day-by-day ledger of units up/down.

Opening total — the locked Pinnacle opening total; until it opens (Pinnacle locks once daily) the current DraftKings line is shown instead, tagged · DK. Model cells show each totals model’s Over/Under lean, its projected combined-runs total, and its honest chance the lean lands. Totals are not flagged as bets — the totals market is efficient (no out-of-sample edge), so there is no EV highlight. The Over/Under chance comes from a right-skewed (Negative-Binomial) model of game total runs centred on the projected total, spread = the trailing-365-day SD of completed-game totals (σ = 4.48). “no pick — rookie/spot SP” means the model abstained: a starting pitcher has no prior-season record and we do not fill missing pitcher stats with a league average (no-imputation rule). “⚠ league-avg fill” flags the opposite trade-off: the ridge_all_l30d challenger cannot take a blank input, so when a starter’s last-30-day rate stats are missing (xFIP / K9 / wOBA-allowed — absent for ~half of all starters who lack a dense 30-day window) it substitutes the league average there rather than abstain. It appears on most games for that model; it means the cell’s pitcher read is partly league-average, not starter-specific.

Today — 2026-07-02 (9 games)

Game	Opening total	totals_ridge	totals_lgbm	totals_xgb	totals_ridge_all_l30d
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies 12:36 PM ET	10.0 O -109 / U -105 · Pin	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	UNDER model 9.58 63% chance ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers 2:11 PM ET	6.5 O -120 / U +105 · Pin	OVER model 8.72 65% chance	OVER model 8.72 65% chance	OVER model 10.08 78% chance	OVER model 8.64 65% chance ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies 3:11 PM ET	12.0 O -109 / U -111 · DK	UNDER model 10.69 69% chance	UNDER model 11.16 65% chance	OVER model 12.59 48% chance	UNDER model 11.31 64% chance ⚠ league-avg fill — away starter
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians 6:41 PM ET	8.5 O -115 / U +101 · Pin	UNDER model 8.43 56% chance	OVER model 9.24 52% chance	OVER model 10.49 64% chance	UNDER model 8.39 57% chance
St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves 7:16 PM ET	9.0 O -108 / U -112 · DK	UNDER model 8.79 61% chance	UNDER model 8.59 63% chance	OVER model 9.03 41% chance	UNDER model 8.10 67% chance ⚠ league-avg fill — home starter
Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals 7:41 PM ET	10.5 O -105 / U -115 · DK	UNDER model 8.90 68% chance	UNDER model 9.49 63% chance	UNDER model 10.10 58% chance	UNDER model 8.85 69% chance ⚠ league-avg fill — home starter
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers 8:06 PM ET	7.5 O -112 / U -102 · Pin	OVER model 8.36 52% chance	OVER model 8.75 56% chance	OVER model 9.71 66% chance	OVER model 8.45 53% chance ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners 9:41 PM ET	7.5 O -102 / U -112 · Pin	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	OVER model 7.77 46% chance ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers 10:11 PM ET	9.0 O +102 / U -116 · Pin	OVER model 9.13 42% chance	OVER model 9.11 42% chance	OVER model 10.22 52% chance	OVER model 9.24 43% chance ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters

Tomorrow — 2026-07-03 (12 games)

Game	Opening total	totals_ridge	totals_lgbm	totals_xgb	totals_ridge_all_l30d
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals	—	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick model 9.84 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners	—	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick model 7.68 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees	—	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick model 9.24 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers	—	no pick model 9.17	no pick model 8.56	no pick model 9.73	no pick model 9.11 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels	—	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick model 9.23 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros	—	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick model 8.97 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies	—	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick model 11.16 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians	—	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick model 8.45 ⚠ league-avg fill — home starter
Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds	—	no pick model 8.91	no pick model 9.33	no pick model 8.65	no pick model 8.84 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	—	no pick model 8.59	no pick model 10.67	no pick model 10.80	no pick model 8.92 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	—	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick model 8.63 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	—	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick model 9.54 ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters

Yesterday — 2026-07-01 (13 games)

Game	Opening total	totals_ridge	totals_lgbm	totals_xgb	totals_ridge_all_l30d
Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles 12:36 PM ET Final: CWS 1 — BAL 6 (total 7)	10.5 O -101 / U -114 · Pin open	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	UNDER model 9.08 67% chance ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Guardians 1:11 PM ET Final: TEX 4 — CLE 9 (total 13)	8.5 O -103 / U -111 · Pin open	UNDER model 8.32 57% chance	UNDER model 8.38 57% chance	UNDER model 8.13 59% chance	UNDER model 8.14 59% chance ⚠ league-avg fill — home starter
Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees 1:36 PM ET Final: DET 6 — NYY 2 (total 8)	10.0 O -106 / U -108 · Pin open	UNDER model 9.07 67% chance	UNDER model 9.04 67% chance	UNDER model 8.36 72% chance	UNDER model 9.04 67% chance ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Washington Nationals @ Boston Red Sox 1:36 PM ET Final: WSH 10 — BOS 2 (total 12)	10.0 O -108 / U -108 · Pin open	UNDER model 8.95 68% chance	UNDER model 9.82 60% chance	OVER model 12.19 62% chance	UNDER model 9.08 67% chance ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs 2:21 PM ET Final: SD 3 — CHC 23 (total 26)	12.0 O -105 / U -108 · Pin open	UNDER model 8.71 82% chance	UNDER model 10.17 73% chance	OVER model 12.30 45% chance	UNDER model 8.94 80% chance ⚠ league-avg fill — away starter
New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays 3:08 PM ET Final: NYM 3 — TOR 9 (total 12)	8.5 O -118 / U +103 · Pin open	OVER model 9.03 50% chance	OVER model 8.83 48% chance	OVER model 8.59 45% chance	OVER model 8.89 48% chance
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies 6:41 PM ET Final: PIT 6 — PHI 10 (total 16)	8.0 O -109 / U -105 · Pin open	OVER model 9.32 52% chance	OVER model 8.19 42% chance	OVER model 10.27 62% chance	OVER model 9.15 51% chance ⚠ league-avg fill — home starter
St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves 7:16 PM ET Final: STL 1 — ATL 5 (total 6)	9.0 O -103 / U -111 · Pin open	UNDER model 8.95 60% chance	UNDER model 8.66 62% chance	UNDER model 8.89 60% chance	UNDER model 8.60 63% chance ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals 7:41 PM ET Final: TB 4 — KC 0 (total 4)	10.0 O -114 / U -101 · Pin open	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	UNDER model 9.44 64% chance ⚠ league-avg fill — away starter
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers 8:11 PM ET	8.5 O -110 / U -104 · Pin open	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	OVER model 8.89 48% chance ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros 8:11 PM ET	8.5 O -101 / U -114 · Pin open	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	no pick rookie/spot SP — no prior-season record	OVER model 9.02 49% chance ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters
Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies 8:41 PM ET	11.0 O +100 / U -115 · Pin open	UNDER model 10.59 62% chance	UNDER model 11.00 58% chance	OVER model 12.88 59% chance	OVER model 11.07 42% chance ⚠ league-avg fill — home starter
San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks 9:41 PM ET	9.5 O -103 / U -111 · Pin open	OVER model 9.61 46% chance	OVER model 10.06 51% chance	OVER model 9.68 47% chance	OVER model 9.53 45% chance ⚠ league-avg fill — both starters

Model results — settled record & units up/down

Units up/down = cumulative profit/loss in flat 1-unit bets on the model’s pick side at the Pinnacle opening total (a win pays decimal odds − 1 units, a loss is −1u, a push is 0u). Picks with no Pinnacle opening total are excluded. ROI = units ÷ number of priced picks. This scores the pick signal at the opening number — it is not the production bet rule. Records were reset to a fresh start on 2026-05-18 — only games on or after that date are counted. Caveat: these records cover only games a model predicted; the main-pipeline models (ridge / lgbm / xgb) abstain on ~22% of games (rookie/spot starters with no prior-season record — no imputation), and those skew higher-scoring, so the shown miss is modestly better than the full-slate reality.

Model	What it is	Since 5/18 reset — units (record)	Last 30 days — units (record)
totals_ridge	Ridge regression Totals (combined run total) baseline.	-35.67u (171W-195L, 25P, 46.7% on n=391, ROI -9.1%)	-17.72u (123W-132L, 15P, 48.2% on n=270, ROI -6.6%)
totals_lgbm	LightGBM Totals — primary gradient-boosted tree model.	-32.09u (173W-193L, 25P, 47.3% on n=391, ROI -8.2%)	-15.90u (124W-131L, 15P, 48.6% on n=270, ROI -5.9%)
totals_xgb	XGBoost Totals — XGBoost tree challenger.	-2.91u (188W-178L, 25P, 51.4% on n=391, ROI -0.7%)	+1.37u (133W-122L, 15P, 52.2% on n=270, ROI +0.5%)
totals_ridge_all_l30d	Ridge regression Totals — ALL_L30D challenger (last-30-day recency window).	-7.03u (244W-233L, 26P, 51.2% on n=503, ROI -1.4%)	+1.93u (187W-171L, 20P, 52.2% on n=378, ROI +0.5%)

Daily ledger — units up/down by date

Date	totals_ridge	totals_lgbm	totals_xgb	totals_ridge_all_l30d
Since 5/18	-35.67u (171-195-25P)	-32.09u (173-193-25P)	-2.91u (188-178-25P)	-7.03u (244-233-26P)
2026-07-01	+0.60u (4-3)	+0.60u (4-3)	+4.48u (6-1)	+2.47u (6-3)
2026-06-30	-0.13u (6-6)	-2.16u (5-7)	+3.77u (8-4)	+1.56u (8-6)
2026-06-29	+2.37u (6-3-1P)	+6.20u (8-1-1P)	+6.20u (8-1-1P)	+4.14u (8-3-1P)
2026-06-28	+2.33u (8-5)	-1.69u (6-7)	+0.45u (7-6)	+1.33u (8-6-1P)
2026-06-27	-1.16u (4-5)	-3.08u (3-6)	-3.17u (3-6)	-1.49u (7-8)
2026-06-26	+0.53u (6-5-1P)	-3.44u (4-7-1P)	-5.24u (3-8-1P)	+1.31u (8-6-1P)
2026-06-25	+0.76u (4-3)	+0.76u (4-3)	+4.49u (6-1)	-0.38u (4-4)
2026-06-24	-1.29u (5-6-1P)	-1.34u (5-6-1P)	-1.51u (5-6-1P)	+0.54u (8-7-1P)
2026-06-23	+0.74u (6-5)	+0.74u (6-5)	-5.23u (3-8)	-1.41u (7-8)
2026-06-22	-4.31u (2-6)	-2.34u (3-5)	-4.19u (2-6)	-3.32u (4-7-1P)
2026-06-21	-5.26u (2-7-1P)	-5.18u (2-7-1P)	-5.18u (2-7-1P)	-8.26u (2-10-1P)
2026-06-20	-3.39u (5-8)	-1.43u (6-7)	-1.43u (6-7)	+0.36u (7-6)
2026-06-19	-1.38u (4-5)	+0.51u (5-4)	-1.36u (4-5)	+0.43u (7-6)
2026-06-18	-2.13u (2-4)	-2.00u (2-4)	-1.99u (2-4)	-1.20u (3-4)
2026-06-17	+4.57u (5-0-1P)	+4.57u (5-0-1P)	+4.57u (5-0-1P)	+5.23u (9-3-1P)
2026-06-16	-5.20u (3-8)	-3.19u (4-7)	-3.22u (4-7)	+0.50u (7-6)
2026-06-15	-1.23u (3-4)	-1.23u (3-4)	-1.08u (3-4)	-1.30u (4-5)
2026-06-14	-2.09u (4-6-2P)	+1.82u (6-4-2P)	+3.80u (7-3-2P)	+0.73u (6-5-2P)
2026-06-13	-4.03u (2-6-2P)	-4.11u (2-6-2P)	-4.03u (2-6-2P)	-2.33u (5-7-2P)
2026-06-12	+6.17u (9-2)	+2.38u (7-4)	+4.20u (8-3)	+3.17u (9-5)
2026-06-11	-2.11u (2-4)	-0.09u (3-3)	+1.79u (4-2)	-2.11u (2-4-1P)
2026-06-10	+2.72u (5-2-2P)	+2.72u (5-2-2P)	+6.54u (7-0-2P)	+3.68u (8-4-2P)
2026-06-09	+3.56u (8-4)	+5.41u (9-3)	+3.41u (8-4)	+3.50u (9-5)
2026-06-08	-2.04u (1-3-1P)	-4.00u (0-4-1P)	-2.04u (1-3-1P)	-2.04u (1-3-3P)
2026-06-07	-0.12u (1-1)	-2.00u (0-2)	-0.12u (1-1)	-1.61u (7-8)
2026-06-06	-3.35u (3-6)	-5.20u (2-7)	-3.26u (3-6)	-2.50u (6-8)
2026-06-05	-2.39u (4-6)	-0.54u (5-5)	+1.39u (6-4)	-1.72u (7-8)
2026-06-04	-1.10u (1-2)	+0.78u (2-1)	+0.78u (2-1)	-1.35u (4-5)
2026-06-03	-2.20u (2-4-3P)	-2.20u (2-4-3P)	-2.21u (2-4-3P)	+1.43u (7-5-3P)
2026-06-02	+2.84u (6-3)	+2.83u (6-3)	+0.76u (5-4)	+2.57u (9-6)
2026-06-01	-1.04u (1-2)	-1.04u (1-2)	-1.04u (1-2)	+2.60u (6-3)
2026-05-31	-1.00u (0-1)	-1.00u (0-1)	-1.00u (0-1)	-0.52u (7-7)
2026-05-30	+2.67u (6-3-1P)	+2.67u (6-3-1P)	+2.70u (6-3-1P)	+4.45u (8-3-3P)
2026-05-29	+2.53u (6-3)	+4.53u (7-2)	+8.27u (9-0)	+1.52u (8-6)
2026-05-28	-0.00u (2-2-1P)	-0.00u (2-2-1P)	+1.95u (3-1-1P)	+0.84u (3-2-1P)
2026-05-27	-5.15u (1-6-1P)	-5.15u (1-6-1P)	-3.27u (2-5-1P)	-7.32u (3-10-1P)
2026-05-26	+5.42u (10-4)	+1.42u (8-6)	+3.54u (9-5)	+1.54u (8-6)
2026-05-25	+1.64u (5-3)	+1.59u (5-3)	-0.29u (4-4)	+6.22u (9-2)
2026-05-24	-1.00u (0-1)	-1.00u (0-1)	-1.00u (0-1)	-6.26u (4-10)
2026-05-23	-7.15u (2-9-1P)	-7.10u (2-9-1P)	-1.22u (5-6-1P)	-12.03u (1-13-1P)
2026-05-22	-1.19u (4-5-2P)	-1.25u (4-5-2P)	-1.14u (4-5-2P)	—
2026-05-21	-4.12u (1-5-1P)	-2.24u (2-4-1P)	+1.56u (4-2-1P)	—
2026-05-20	-8.08u (2-10-1P)	-6.12u (3-9-1P)	-8.02u (2-10-1P)	—
2026-05-19	-2.25u (4-6-2P)	-0.31u (5-5-2P)	-4.15u (3-7-2P)	—
2026-05-18	+0.77u (4-3)	-1.19u (3-4)	-1.17u (3-4)	—

Pick. Over when a totals model's expected combined runs is above the opening total, Under when below; equal to the line, or no opening total => no pick.
Units up/down & the ledger. 1 unit flat on the model's pick side at the Pinnacle opening total: a win pays that line's decimal profit (decimal odds minus 1), a loss is −1u, a push is 0u; summed over every settled pick that has a Pinnacle opening total. This scores the raw pick signal at the opening number — it is not the production bet rule (no EV gate, no stake sizing).
Predictions from model.predictions (latest ok run per game). Final scores from mart.fact_game; opening totals from mart.pinnacle_totals_opens_locked. Read-only page — it changes no model and places no bet.