Model Records — 2026

Every model's pick on every game · paper · updated Jul 02, 02:03 AM ET

Season standings (all 2026) — sorted by underdog ROI

ModelOverallROIDogsDog ROIFavsFav ROI
LOGISTIC (baseline)263-227-4.8%48-42+14.2%215-185-7.7%
LOGISTIC blended267-224-2.4%48-52+3.5%219-172-3.5%
LOGISTIC L30D255-239-5.8%54-72-7.3%201-167-5.5%
LightGBM236-254-12.2%50-71-9.5%186-183-12.8%
CatBoost169-174-11.5%29-41-10.8%140-133-11.6%
XGBoost168-188-12.8%41-62-12.6%127-126-12.8%

Games — 2026-06-22

07-03 07-02 07-01 06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11
NYY@DET
2026-06-22 · Mon 06:11 PM ET · NYY 3 — DET 5 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30DDET +10955%✓+1.09u
LOGISTIC blendedDET +10959%✓+1.09u
KC@TB
2026-06-22 · Mon 06:41 PM ET · KC 2 — TB 1 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostTB -17453%✗-1.74u
LOGISTIC (baseline)TB -17456%✗-1.74u
LOGISTIC L30DKC +14551%✓+1.45u
LOGISTIC blendedTB -17453%✗-1.74u
LightGBMTB -17453%✗-1.74u
XGBoostTB -17454%✗-1.74u
TEX@MIA
2026-06-22 · Mon 06:41 PM ET · TEX 4 — MIA 3 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostMIA -12153%✗-1.21u
LOGISTIC (baseline)MIA -12152%✗-1.21u
LOGISTIC L30DMIA -12160%✗-1.21u
LOGISTIC blendedMIA -12151%✗-1.21u
LightGBMMIA -12153%✗-1.21u
XGBoostMIA -12153%✗-1.21u
PHI@WSH
2026-06-22 · Mon 06:46 PM ET · PHI 1 — WSH 4 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30DWSH -11652%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedWSH -11654%✓+1.00u
HOU@TOR
2026-06-22 · Mon 07:08 PM ET · HOU 2 — TOR 4 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostTOR -12853%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)TOR -12853%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DHOU +11051%✗-1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedTOR -12854%✓+1.00u
LightGBMTOR -12853%✓+1.00u
XGBoostTOR -12853%✓+1.00u
MIL@CIN
2026-06-22 · Mon 07:11 PM ET · MIL 2 — CIN 1 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostCIN +14550%✗-1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)MIL -17450%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DCIN +14558%✗-1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedCIN +14553%✗-1.00u
LightGBMCIN +14552%✗-1.00u
XGBoostCIN +14553%✗-1.00u
LAD@MIN
2026-06-22 · Mon 07:41 PM ET · LAD 2 — MIN 1 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostMIN +13055%✗-1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)MIN +13052%✗-1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DMIN +13051%✗-1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedMIN +13052%✗-1.00u
LightGBMMIN +13052%✗-1.00u
XGBoostMIN +13053%✗-1.00u
CLE@CWS
2026-06-22 · Mon 07:41 PM ET · CLE 5 — CWS 6 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30DCWS -10452%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedCWS -10456%✓+1.00u
ARI@STL
2026-06-22 · Mon 07:46 PM ET · ARI 2 — STL 3 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostSTL -14254%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)ARI +12051%✗-1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DSTL -14257%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedSTL -14254%✓+1.00u
LightGBMSTL -14253%✓+1.00u
XGBoostSTL -14253%✓+1.00u
BOS@COL
2026-06-22 · Mon 08:41 PM ET · BOS 2 — COL 3 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30DBOS -12453%✗-1.24u
LOGISTIC blendedCOL +10550%✓+1.05u
BAL@LAA
2026-06-22 · Mon 09:39 PM ET · BAL 6 — LAA 1 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostBAL -16150%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)BAL -16158%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DLAA +13553%✗-1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedLAA +13551%✗-1.00u
LightGBMBAL -16151%✓+1.00u
XGBoostLAA +13553%✗-1.00u
ATL@SD
2026-06-22 · Mon 10:10 PM ET · ATL 0 — SD 1 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostSD -10955%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)SD -10954%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DSD -10952%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedSD -10959%✓+1.00u
LightGBMSD -10952%✓+1.00u
XGBoostSD -10954%✓+1.00u
Each model's pick = the side it favored to win, on EVERY game (no edge filter). Graded vs the locked final, staked favorites bet-to-win-1u, underdogs risk-1u. Prices are the opening line. PAPER ONLY — research, not bet recommendations. Betting every game pays the vig on every game, so negative totals are expected.