Model Records — 2026

Every model's pick on every game · paper · updated Jul 02, 02:03 AM ET

Season standings (all 2026) — sorted by underdog ROI

ModelOverallROIDogsDog ROIFavsFav ROI
LOGISTIC (baseline)263-227-4.8%48-42+14.2%215-185-7.7%
LOGISTIC blended267-224-2.4%48-52+3.5%219-172-3.5%
LOGISTIC L30D255-239-5.8%54-72-7.3%201-167-5.5%
LightGBM236-254-12.2%50-71-9.5%186-183-12.8%
CatBoost169-174-11.5%29-41-10.8%140-133-11.6%
XGBoost168-188-12.8%41-62-12.6%127-126-12.8%

Games — 2026-06-26

07-03 07-02 07-01 06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11
CIN@PIT
2026-06-26 · Fri 06:41 PM ET · CIN 6 — PIT 4 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostPIT -21557%✗-2.15u
LOGISTIC (baseline)PIT -21558%✗-2.15u
LOGISTIC L30DPIT -21562%✗-2.15u
LOGISTIC blendedPIT -21563%✗-2.15u
LightGBMPIT -21558%✗-2.15u
XGBoostPIT -21553%✗-2.15u
HOU@DET
2026-06-26 · Fri 06:41 PM ET · HOU 0 — DET 8 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostDET -11552%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)DET -11554%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DDET -11553%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedDET -11556%✓+1.00u
LightGBMDET -11550%✓+1.00u
XGBoostDET -11553%✓+1.00u
WSH@BAL
2026-06-26 · Fri 07:06 PM ET · WSH 1 — BAL 3 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostBAL -14155%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)BAL -14157%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DBAL -14160%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedBAL -14159%✓+1.00u
LightGBMBAL -14154%✓+1.00u
XGBoostBAL -14153%✓+1.00u
TEX@TOR
2026-06-26 · Fri 07:08 PM ET · TEX 5 — TOR 4 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30DTOR -10556%✗-1.05u
LOGISTIC blendedTEX -11256%✓+1.00u
ARI@TB
2026-06-26 · Fri 07:10 PM ET · ARI 1 — TB 6 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostTB -13854%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)TB -13851%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DTB -13859%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedTB -13854%✓+1.00u
LightGBMARI +11650%✗-1.00u
XGBoostTB -13853%✓+1.00u
PHI@NYM
2026-06-26 · Fri 07:11 PM ET · PHI 2 — NYM 1 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30DNYM +13651%✗-1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedPHI -15958%✓+1.00u
SEA@CLE
2026-06-26 · Fri 07:11 PM ET · SEA 3 — CLE 1 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostCLE -11253%✗-1.12u
LOGISTIC (baseline)CLE -11256%✗-1.12u
LOGISTIC L30DSEA -10551%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedSEA -10552%✓+1.00u
LightGBMCLE -11253%✗-1.12u
XGBoostCLE -11253%✗-1.12u
NYY@BOS
2026-06-26 · Fri 07:11 PM ET · NYY 1 — BOS 6 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostBOS +10052%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)BOS +10051%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DNYY -11651%✗-1.16u
LOGISTIC blendedBOS +10051%✓+1.00u
LightGBMBOS +10052%✓+1.00u
XGBoostBOS +10053%✓+1.00u
KC@CWS
2026-06-26 · Fri 07:41 PM ET · KC 1 — CWS 22 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30DCWS -13351%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedCWS -13355%✓+1.00u
CHC@MIL
2026-06-26 · Fri 07:46 PM ET · CHC 2 — MIL 6 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30DMIL -26754%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedMIL -26759%✓+1.00u
COL@MIN
2026-06-26 · Fri 08:11 PM ET · COL 8 — MIN 9 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30DMIN -16362%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedMIN -16355%✓+1.00u
MIA@STL
2026-06-26 · Fri 08:15 PM ET · MIA 4 — STL 0 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30DSTL -12053%✗-1.20u
LOGISTIC blendedSTL -12053%✗-1.20u
OAK@LAA
2026-06-26 · Fri 09:39 PM ET · OAK 9 — LAA 3 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30DOAK -12351%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedOAK -12355%✓+1.00u
LAD@SD
2026-06-26 · Fri 09:46 PM ET · LAD 1 — SD 7 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30DSD +13053%✓+1.29u
LOGISTIC blendedSD +13053%✓+1.29u
ATL@SF
2026-06-26 · Fri 10:16 PM ET · ATL 3 — SF 1 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostSF +10460%✗-1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)SF +10462%✗-1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DSF +10453%✗-1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedSF +10459%✗-1.00u
LightGBMSF +10454%✗-1.00u
XGBoostSF +10453%✗-1.00u
Each model's pick = the side it favored to win, on EVERY game (no edge filter). Graded vs the locked final, staked favorites bet-to-win-1u, underdogs risk-1u. Prices are the opening line. PAPER ONLY — research, not bet recommendations. Betting every game pays the vig on every game, so negative totals are expected.