ALIBI MLB · Model Records

Model	Overall	ROI	Dogs	Dog ROI	Favs	Fav ROI
LOGISTIC (baseline)	263-227	-4.8%	48-42	+14.2%	215-185	-7.7%
LOGISTIC blended	267-224	-2.4%	48-52	+3.5%	219-172	-3.5%
LOGISTIC L30D	255-239	-5.8%	54-72	-7.3%	201-167	-5.5%
LightGBM	236-254	-12.2%	50-71	-9.5%	186-183	-12.8%
CatBoost	169-174	-11.5%	29-41	-10.8%	140-133	-11.6%
XGBoost	168-188	-12.8%	41-62	-12.6%	127-126	-12.8%

Games — 2026-06-30

CWS@BAL

2026-06-30 · Tue 06:36 PM ET · CWS 9 — BAL 3 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
LOGISTIC L30D	CWS +124	57%	✓	+1.24u
LOGISTIC blended	BAL -142	56%	✗	-1.42u

PIT@PHI

2026-06-30 · Tue 06:41 PM ET · PIT 0 — PHI 8 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	PHI -200	52%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	PHI -200	53%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	PHI -200	51%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	PHI -200	56%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM	PHI -200	51%	✓	+1.00u
XGBoost	PHI -200	53%	✓	+1.00u

TEX@CLE

2026-06-30 · Tue 06:41 PM ET · TEX 4 — CLE 2 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	TEX -109	54%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	TEX -109	52%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	CLE -108	53%	✗	-1.08u
LOGISTIC blended	TEX -109	52%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM	CLE -108	53%	✗	-1.08u
XGBoost	CLE -108	53%	✗	-1.08u

DET@NYY

2026-06-30 · Tue 07:06 PM ET · DET 9 — NYY 3 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	NYY -144	52%	✗	-1.44u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	DET +124	54%	✓	+1.24u
LOGISTIC L30D	NYY -144	51%	✗	-1.44u
LOGISTIC blended	DET +124	58%	✓	+1.24u
LightGBM	NYY -144	51%	✗	-1.44u
XGBoost	NYY -144	53%	✗	-1.44u

NYM@TOR

2026-06-30 · Tue 07:08 PM ET · NYM 3 — TOR 0 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	TOR -125	50%	✗	-1.25u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	NYM +110	50%	✓	+1.10u
LOGISTIC L30D	NYM +110	50%	✓	+1.10u
LOGISTIC blended	NYM +110	53%	✓	+1.10u
LightGBM	TOR -125	51%	✗	-1.25u
XGBoost	TOR -125	53%	✗	-1.25u

WSH@BOS

2026-06-30 · Tue 07:11 PM ET · WSH 8 — BOS 1 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	BOS -140	55%	✗	-1.40u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	BOS -140	58%	✗	-1.40u
LOGISTIC L30D	BOS -140	61%	✗	-1.40u
LOGISTIC blended	BOS -140	53%	✗	-1.40u
LightGBM	BOS -140	53%	✗	-1.40u
XGBoost	BOS -140	53%	✗	-1.40u

STL@ATL

2026-06-30 · Tue 07:16 PM ET · STL 5 — ATL 3 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	ATL -159	51%	✗	-1.59u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	STL +136	50%	✓	+1.35u
LOGISTIC L30D	ATL -159	50%	✗	-1.59u
LOGISTIC blended	STL +136	58%	✓	+1.35u
LightGBM	ATL -159	51%	✗	-1.59u
XGBoost	ATL -159	53%	✗	-1.59u

CIN@MIL

2026-06-30 · Tue 07:41 PM ET · CIN 2 — MIL 7 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
LOGISTIC L30D	MIL -175	60%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	MIL -175	60%	✓	+1.00u

TB@KC

2026-06-30 · Tue 07:41 PM ET · TB 10 — KC 4 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	TB -119	51%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	TB -119	54%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	KC +102	52%	✗	-1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	TB -119	51%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM	TB -119	51%	✓	+1.00u
XGBoost	KC +102	53%	✗	-1.00u

SD@CHC

2026-06-30 · Tue 08:06 PM ET · SD 7 — CHC 9 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	CHC -154	60%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	CHC -154	52%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	CHC -154	53%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	CHC -154	58%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM	CHC -154	55%	✓	+1.00u
XGBoost	CHC -154	53%	✓	+1.00u

MIN@HOU

2026-06-30 · Tue 08:11 PM ET · MIN 4 — HOU 6 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	MIN -116	57%	✗	-1.16u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	MIN -116	53%	✗	-1.16u
LOGISTIC L30D	HOU -102	53%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	MIN -116	54%	✗	-1.16u
LightGBM	MIN -116	51%	✗	-1.16u
XGBoost	HOU -102	53%	✓	+1.00u

MIA@COL

2026-06-30 · Tue 08:41 PM ET · MIA 14 — COL 3 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	MIA -147	55%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	MIA -147	57%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	MIA -147	52%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	MIA -147	53%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM	COL +127	52%	✗	-1.00u
XGBoost	COL +127	53%	✗	-1.00u

LAD@OAK

2026-06-30 · Tue 09:40 PM ET · LAD 9 — OAK 3 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	LAD -144	51%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	LAD -144	53%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	LAD -144	56%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM	OAK +125	52%	✗	-1.00u
XGBoost	OAK +125	53%	✗	-1.00u

SF@ARI

2026-06-30 · Tue 09:40 PM ET · SF 2 — ARI 8 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	SF -107	54%	✗	-1.07u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	SF -107	51%	✗	-1.07u
LOGISTIC L30D	SF -107	60%	✗	-1.07u
LOGISTIC blended	SF -107	57%	✗	-1.07u
LightGBM	SF -107	52%	✗	-1.07u
XGBoost	ARI -109	53%	✓	+1.00u

LAA@SEA

2026-06-30 · Tue 09:41 PM ET · LAA 3 — SEA 8 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	SEA -164	56%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	SEA -164	54%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	SEA -164	55%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	SEA -164	60%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM	SEA -164	54%	✓	+1.00u
XGBoost	SEA -164	53%	✓	+1.00u

Each model's pick = the side it favored to win, on EVERY game (no edge filter). Graded vs the locked final, staked favorites bet-to-win-1u, underdogs risk-1u. Prices are the opening line. PAPER ONLY — research, not bet recommendations. Betting every game pays the vig on every game, so negative totals are expected.

Model Records — 2026

Season standings (all 2026) — sorted by underdog ROI

Games — 2026-06-30