ALIBI MLB · Model Records

Model	Overall	ROI	Dogs	Dog ROI	Favs	Fav ROI
LOGISTIC (baseline)	263-227	-4.8%	48-42	+14.2%	215-185	-7.7%
LOGISTIC blended	267-224	-2.4%	48-52	+3.5%	219-172	-3.5%
LOGISTIC L30D	255-239	-5.8%	54-72	-7.3%	201-167	-5.5%
LightGBM	236-254	-12.2%	50-71	-9.5%	186-183	-12.8%
CatBoost	169-174	-11.5%	29-41	-10.8%	140-133	-11.6%
XGBoost	168-188	-12.8%	41-62	-12.6%	127-126	-12.8%

Games — 2026-06-13

STL@MIN

2026-06-13 · Sat 02:11 PM ET · STL 9 — MIN 6 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
no model predictions

NYY@TOR

2026-06-13 · Sat 03:08 PM ET · NYY 3 — TOR 1 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
no model predictions

SEA@WSH

2026-06-13 · Sat 04:05 PM ET · SEA 3 — WSH 8 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	SEA -105	50%	✗	-1.05u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	SEA -105	52%	✗	-1.05u
LOGISTIC L30D	SEA -105	54%	✗	-1.05u
LOGISTIC blended	WSH -110	56%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM	SEA -105	58%	✗	-1.05u
XGBoost	WSH -110	52%	✓	+1.00u

MIA@PIT

2026-06-13 · Sat 04:06 PM ET · MIA 2 — PIT 3 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	PIT -131	55%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	PIT -131	54%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	PIT -131	55%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	PIT -131	51%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM	PIT -131	56%	✓	+1.00u
XGBoost	PIT -131	52%	✓	+1.00u

SD@BAL

2026-06-13 · Sat 04:06 PM ET · SD 9 — BAL 3 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
LOGISTIC L30D	BAL -130	53%	✗	-1.30u
LOGISTIC blended	BAL -130	61%	✗	-1.30u

ATL@NYM

2026-06-13 · Sat 04:10 PM ET · ATL 3 — NYM 1 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	NYM -111	53%	✗	-1.11u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	NYM -111	58%	✗	-1.11u
LOGISTIC L30D	NYM -111	52%	✗	-1.11u
LOGISTIC blended	NYM -111	64%	✗	-1.11u
LightGBM	ATL -108	50%	✓	+1.00u
XGBoost	NYM -111	52%	✗	-1.11u

LAD@CWS

2026-06-13 · Sat 04:10 PM ET · LAD 7 — CWS 1 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	CWS +170	51%	✗	-1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	LAD -198	51%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	CWS +170	54%	✗	-1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	LAD -198	52%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM	CWS +170	52%	✗	-1.00u
XGBoost	CWS +170	52%	✗	-1.00u

DET@CLE

2026-06-13 · Sat 04:11 PM ET · DET 1 — CLE 3 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	CLE +126	51%	✓	+1.26u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	CLE +126	50%	✓	+1.26u
LOGISTIC L30D	CLE +126	53%	✓	+1.26u
LOGISTIC blended	DET -147	60%	✗	-1.47u
LightGBM	DET -147	54%	✗	-1.47u
XGBoost	CLE +126	52%	✓	+1.26u

ARI@CIN

2026-06-13 · Sat 04:11 PM ET · ARI 1 — CIN 2 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
LOGISTIC L30D	ARI -133	51%	✗	-1.33u
LOGISTIC blended	ARI -133	52%	✗	-1.33u

TEX@BOS

2026-06-13 · Sat 04:11 PM ET · TEX 3 — BOS 6 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	BOS -118	50%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	BOS -118	51%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	BOS -118	57%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	BOS -118	50%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM	TEX -101	55%	✗	-1.01u
XGBoost	BOS -118	52%	✓	+1.00u

PHI@MIL

2026-06-13 · Sat 07:11 PM ET · PHI 9 — MIL 8 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
LOGISTIC L30D	MIL -138	52%	✗	-1.38u
LOGISTIC blended	MIL -138	52%	✗	-1.38u

HOU@KC

2026-06-13 · Sat 07:11 PM ET · HOU 8 — KC 7 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	KC -127	52%	✗	-1.27u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	KC -127	54%	✗	-1.27u
LOGISTIC L30D	HOU +110	54%	✓	+1.10u
LOGISTIC blended	HOU +110	53%	✓	+1.10u
LightGBM	HOU +110	52%	✓	+1.10u
XGBoost	KC -127	52%	✗	-1.27u

CHC@SF

2026-06-13 · Sat 10:06 PM ET · CHC 6 — SF 1 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	SF +107	54%	✗	-1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	SF +107	53%	✗	-1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	SF +107	56%	✗	-1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	SF +107	55%	✗	-1.00u
LightGBM	SF +107	52%	✗	-1.00u
XGBoost	SF +107	52%	✗	-1.00u

COL@OAK

2026-06-13 · Sat 10:06 PM ET · COL 5 — OAK 7 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	OAK -168	52%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	COL +145	57%	✗	-1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	OAK -168	61%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	OAK -168	52%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM	OAK -168	54%	✓	+1.00u
XGBoost	OAK -168	52%	✓	+1.00u

TB@LAA

2026-06-13 · Sat 10:08 PM ET · TB 0 — LAA 8 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	TB -111	50%	✗	-1.11u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	TB -111	52%	✗	-1.11u
LOGISTIC L30D	TB -111	54%	✗	-1.11u
LOGISTIC blended	TB -111	53%	✗	-1.11u
LightGBM	TB -111	52%	✗	-1.11u
XGBoost	LAA -106	52%	✓	+1.00u

Each model's pick = the side it favored to win, on EVERY game (no edge filter). Graded vs the locked final, staked favorites bet-to-win-1u, underdogs risk-1u. Prices are the opening line. PAPER ONLY — research, not bet recommendations. Betting every game pays the vig on every game, so negative totals are expected.

Model Records — 2026

Season standings (all 2026) — sorted by underdog ROI

Games — 2026-06-13