ALIBI MLB · Model Records

Model	Overall	ROI	Dogs	Dog ROI	Favs	Fav ROI
LOGISTIC (baseline)	263-227	-4.8%	48-42	+14.2%	215-185	-7.7%
LOGISTIC blended	267-224	-2.4%	48-52	+3.5%	219-172	-3.5%
LOGISTIC L30D	255-239	-5.8%	54-72	-7.3%	201-167	-5.5%
LightGBM	236-254	-12.2%	50-71	-9.5%	186-183	-12.8%
CatBoost	169-174	-11.5%	29-41	-10.8%	140-133	-11.6%
XGBoost	168-188	-12.8%	41-62	-12.6%	127-126	-12.8%

Games — 2026-06-16

MIA@PHI

2026-06-16 · Tue 06:41 PM ET · MIA 2 — PHI 8 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
LOGISTIC L30D	PHI -167	54%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	PHI -167	57%	✓	+1.00u

TOR@BOS

2026-06-16 · Tue 06:45 PM ET · TOR 6 — BOS 1 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
LOGISTIC L30D	TOR -118	52%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	TOR -118	57%	✓	+1.00u

KC@WSH

2026-06-16 · Tue 06:46 PM ET · KC 4 — WSH 6 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
LOGISTIC L30D	KC +108	50%	✗	-1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	WSH -125	51%	✓	+1.00u

CWS@NYY

2026-06-16 · Tue 07:06 PM ET · CWS 2 — NYY 12 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
LOGISTIC L30D	CWS +121	57%	✗	-1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	CWS +121	53%	✗	-1.00u

NYM@CIN

2026-06-16 · Tue 07:11 PM ET · NYM 3 — CIN 5 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	CIN +104	55%	✓	+1.04u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	CIN +104	54%	✓	+1.04u
LOGISTIC L30D	CIN +104	52%	✓	+1.04u
LOGISTIC blended	NYM -123	53%	✗	-1.23u
LightGBM	CIN +104	53%	✓	+1.04u
XGBoost	CIN +104	53%	✓	+1.04u

SF@ATL

2026-06-16 · Tue 07:16 PM ET · SF 7 — ATL 2 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	ATL -152	53%	✗	-1.52u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	ATL -152	57%	✗	-1.52u
LOGISTIC L30D	ATL -152	53%	✗	-1.52u
LOGISTIC blended	ATL -152	54%	✗	-1.52u
LightGBM	SF +131	50%	✓	+1.31u
XGBoost	ATL -152	53%	✗	-1.52u

CLE@MIL

2026-06-16 · Tue 07:41 PM ET · CLE 1 — MIL 2 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	MIL -149	56%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	MIL -149	53%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	MIL -149	52%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	MIL -149	57%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM	MIL -149	53%	✓	+1.00u
XGBoost	MIL -149	53%	✓	+1.00u

SD@STL

2026-06-16 · Tue 07:46 PM ET · SD 2 — STL 3 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	STL -110	54%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	STL -110	50%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	STL -110	56%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	STL -110	54%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM	STL -110	54%	✓	+1.00u
XGBoost	STL -110	53%	✓	+1.00u

MIN@TEX

2026-06-16 · Tue 08:06 PM ET · MIN 12 — TEX 2 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	TEX -140	52%	✗	-1.40u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	TEX -140	52%	✗	-1.40u
LOGISTIC L30D	TEX -140	54%	✗	-1.40u
LOGISTIC blended	MIN +119	51%	✓	+1.19u
LightGBM	MIN +119	50%	✓	+1.19u
XGBoost	TEX -140	53%	✗	-1.40u

COL@CHC

2026-06-16 · Tue 08:06 PM ET · COL 5 — CHC 2 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	CHC -192	55%	✗	-1.92u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	CHC -192	60%	✗	-1.92u
LOGISTIC L30D	CHC -192	64%	✗	-1.92u
LOGISTIC blended	CHC -192	57%	✗	-1.92u
LightGBM	CHC -192	56%	✗	-1.92u
XGBoost	CHC -192	53%	✗	-1.92u

DET@HOU

2026-06-16 · Tue 08:11 PM ET · DET 2 — HOU 4 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	HOU -146	54%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	HOU -146	55%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	HOU -146	55%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	HOU -146	55%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM	HOU -146	52%	✓	+1.00u
XGBoost	HOU -146	53%	✓	+1.00u

BAL@SEA

2026-06-16 · Tue 09:41 PM ET · BAL 1 — SEA 3 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	SEA -148	56%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	SEA -148	65%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	SEA -148	58%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	SEA -148	61%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM	SEA -148	54%	✓	+1.00u
XGBoost	SEA -148	53%	✓	+1.00u

PIT@OAK

2026-06-16 · Tue 09:41 PM ET · PIT 6 — OAK 5 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	OAK -123	55%	✗	-1.23u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	OAK -123	50%	✗	-1.23u
LOGISTIC L30D	OAK -123	51%	✗	-1.23u
LOGISTIC blended	OAK -123	50%	✗	-1.23u
LightGBM	OAK -123	55%	✗	-1.23u
XGBoost	OAK -123	53%	✗	-1.23u

LAA@ARI

2026-06-16 · Tue 09:41 PM ET · LAA 7 — ARI 0 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	ARI -112	50%	✗	-1.12u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	ARI -112	51%	✗	-1.12u
LOGISTIC L30D	LAA -105	52%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	LAA -105	53%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM	ARI -112	51%	✗	-1.12u
XGBoost	ARI -112	53%	✗	-1.12u

TB@LAD

2026-06-16 · Tue 10:11 PM ET · TB 0 — LAD 1 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	LAD -147	56%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	LAD -147	54%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	LAD -147	55%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	LAD -147	58%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM	LAD -147	53%	✓	+1.00u
XGBoost	LAD -147	53%	✓	+1.00u

Each model's pick = the side it favored to win, on EVERY game (no edge filter). Graded vs the locked final, staked favorites bet-to-win-1u, underdogs risk-1u. Prices are the opening line. PAPER ONLY — research, not bet recommendations. Betting every game pays the vig on every game, so negative totals are expected.

Model Records — 2026

Season standings (all 2026) — sorted by underdog ROI

Games — 2026-06-16