Model Records — 2026

Every model's pick on every game · paper · updated Jul 02, 02:03 AM ET

Season standings (all 2026) — sorted by underdog ROI

ModelOverallROIDogsDog ROIFavsFav ROI
LOGISTIC (baseline)263-227-4.8%48-42+14.2%215-185-7.7%
LOGISTIC blended267-224-2.4%48-52+3.5%219-172-3.5%
LOGISTIC L30D255-239-5.8%54-72-7.3%201-167-5.5%
LightGBM236-254-12.2%50-71-9.5%186-183-12.8%
CatBoost169-174-11.5%29-41-10.8%140-133-11.6%
XGBoost168-188-12.8%41-62-12.6%127-126-12.8%

Games — 2026-06-25

07-03 07-02 07-01 06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11
KC@TB
2026-06-25 · Thu 12:11 PM ET · KC 2 — TB 13 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
no model predictions
SEA@PIT
2026-06-25 · Thu 12:36 PM ET · SEA 1 — PIT 5 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
no model predictions
OAK@SF
2026-06-25 · Thu 03:46 PM ET · OAK 9 — SF 6 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostSF -13257%✗-1.32u
LOGISTIC (baseline)SF -13254%✗-1.32u
LOGISTIC L30DSF -13255%✗-1.32u
LOGISTIC blendedSF -13256%✗-1.32u
LightGBMSF -13252%✗-1.32u
XGBoostSF -13253%✗-1.32u
HOU@DET
2026-06-25 · Thu 06:41 PM ET · HOU 2 — DET 1 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30DDET -12054%✗-1.20u
LOGISTIC blendedDET -12054%✗-1.20u
PHI@WSH
2026-06-25 · Thu 06:46 PM ET · PHI 10 — WSH 5 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostWSH +15151%✗-1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)PHI -18255%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DWSH +15151%✗-1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedPHI -18251%✓+1.00u
LightGBMPHI -18250%✓+1.00u
XGBoostWSH +15152%✗-1.00u
TEX@TOR
2026-06-25 · Thu 07:08 PM ET · TEX 6 — TOR 5 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostTOR -14952%✗-1.49u
LOGISTIC (baseline)TOR -14953%✗-1.49u
LOGISTIC L30DTOR -14961%✗-1.49u
LOGISTIC blendedTOR -14951%✗-1.49u
LightGBMTOR -14953%✗-1.49u
XGBoostTOR -14953%✗-1.49u
CHC@NYM
2026-06-25 · Thu 07:11 PM ET · CHC 4 — NYM 3 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostNYM -11453%✗-1.14u
LOGISTIC (baseline)NYM -11457%✗-1.14u
LOGISTIC L30DNYM -11454%✗-1.14u
LOGISTIC blendedNYM -11452%✗-1.14u
LightGBMNYM -11452%✗-1.14u
XGBoostNYM -11452%✗-1.14u
NYY@BOS
2026-06-25 · Thu 07:11 PM ET · NYY 3 — BOS 6 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostBOS +13551%✓+1.35u
LOGISTIC (baseline)BOS +13558%✓+1.35u
LOGISTIC L30DNYY -15654%✗-1.56u
LOGISTIC blendedNYY -15656%✗-1.56u
LightGBMBOS +13552%✓+1.35u
XGBoostBOS +13553%✓+1.35u
Each model's pick = the side it favored to win, on EVERY game (no edge filter). Graded vs the locked final, staked favorites bet-to-win-1u, underdogs risk-1u. Prices are the opening line. PAPER ONLY — research, not bet recommendations. Betting every game pays the vig on every game, so negative totals are expected.