Model Records — 2026

Every model's pick on every game · paper · updated Jul 02, 02:03 AM ET

Season standings (all 2026) — sorted by underdog ROI

ModelOverallROIDogsDog ROIFavsFav ROI
LOGISTIC (baseline)263-227-4.8%48-42+14.2%215-185-7.7%
LOGISTIC blended267-224-2.4%48-52+3.5%219-172-3.5%
LOGISTIC L30D255-239-5.8%54-72-7.3%201-167-5.5%
LightGBM236-254-12.2%50-71-9.5%186-183-12.8%
CatBoost169-174-11.5%29-41-10.8%140-133-11.6%
XGBoost168-188-12.8%41-62-12.6%127-126-12.8%

Games — 2026-06-27

07-03 07-02 07-01 06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11
HOU@DET
2026-06-27 · Sat 01:11 PM ET · HOU 8 — DET 6 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
no model predictions
NYY@BOS
2026-06-27 · Sat 01:11 PM ET · NYY 1 — BOS 4 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
no model predictions
TEX@TOR
2026-06-27 · Sat 03:08 PM ET · TEX 7 — TOR 4 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
no model predictions
CIN@PIT
2026-06-27 · Sat 04:06 PM ET · CIN 9 — PIT 7 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30DPIT -10256%✗-1.02u
LOGISTIC blendedCIN -11555%✓+1.00u
PHI@NYM
2026-06-27 · Sat 04:11 PM ET · PHI 2 — NYM 6 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30DNYM -13852%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedNYM -13850%✓+1.00u
KC@CWS
2026-06-27 · Sat 04:11 PM ET · KC 1 — CWS 2 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30DCWS -14455%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedCWS -14459%✓+1.00u
ARI@TB
2026-06-27 · Sat 06:11 PM ET · ARI 2 — TB 4 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30DTB -17562%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedTB -17561%✓+1.00u
WSH@BAL
2026-06-27 · Sat 07:06 PM ET · WSH 4 — BAL 3 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30DBAL -12062%✗-1.20u
LOGISTIC blendedBAL -12052%✗-1.20u
COL@MIN
2026-06-27 · Sat 07:11 PM ET · COL 8 — MIN 5 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30DMIN -14258%✗-1.42u
LOGISTIC blendedMIN -14251%✗-1.42u
CHC@MIL
2026-06-27 · Sat 07:11 PM ET · CHC 8 — MIL 2 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostMIL -16458%✗-1.64u
LOGISTIC (baseline)MIL -16450%✗-1.64u
LOGISTIC L30DMIL -16454%✗-1.64u
LOGISTIC blendedMIL -16455%✗-1.64u
LightGBMMIL -16454%✗-1.64u
XGBoostMIL -16452%✗-1.64u
SEA@CLE
2026-06-27 · Sat 07:11 PM ET · SEA 3 — CLE 4 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostSEA -14452%✗-1.44u
LOGISTIC (baseline)SEA -14455%✗-1.44u
LOGISTIC L30DSEA -14453%✗-1.44u
LOGISTIC blendedCLE +12650%✓+1.26u
LightGBMSEA -14451%✗-1.44u
XGBoostCLE +12652%✓+1.26u
MIA@STL
2026-06-27 · Sat 07:16 PM ET · MIA 5 — STL 1 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostSTL -14253%✗-1.42u
LOGISTIC (baseline)MIA +12151%✓+1.21u
LOGISTIC L30DSTL -14254%✗-1.42u
LOGISTIC blendedSTL -14251%✗-1.42u
LightGBMSTL -14252%✗-1.42u
XGBoostSTL -14253%✗-1.42u
LAD@SD
2026-06-27 · Sat 08:41 PM ET · LAD 15 — SD 3 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostLAD -19853%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)LAD -19855%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DSD +16654%✗-1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedLAD -19858%✓+1.00u
LightGBMLAD -19853%✓+1.00u
XGBoostSD +16651%✗-1.00u
ATL@SF
2026-06-27 · Sat 09:06 PM ET · ATL 0 — SF 5 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostSF -13058%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)SF -13054%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DSF -13054%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedSF -13064%✓+1.00u
LightGBMSF -13054%✓+1.00u
XGBoostSF -13053%✓+1.00u
OAK@LAA
2026-06-27 · Sat 09:39 PM ET · OAK 2 — LAA 5 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostLAA -11553%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)LAA -11552%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DLAA -11555%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedLAA -11556%✓+1.00u
LightGBMOAK -10151%✗-1.01u
XGBoostLAA -11553%✓+1.00u
Each model's pick = the side it favored to win, on EVERY game (no edge filter). Graded vs the locked final, staked favorites bet-to-win-1u, underdogs risk-1u. Prices are the opening line. PAPER ONLY — research, not bet recommendations. Betting every game pays the vig on every game, so negative totals are expected.