Model Records — 2026

Every model's pick on every game · paper · updated Jul 02, 02:03 AM ET

Season standings (all 2026) — sorted by underdog ROI

ModelOverallROIDogsDog ROIFavsFav ROI
LOGISTIC (baseline)263-227-4.8%48-42+14.2%215-185-7.7%
LOGISTIC blended267-224-2.4%48-52+3.5%219-172-3.5%
LOGISTIC L30D255-239-5.8%54-72-7.3%201-167-5.5%
LightGBM236-254-12.2%50-71-9.5%186-183-12.8%
CatBoost169-174-11.5%29-41-10.8%140-133-11.6%
XGBoost168-188-12.8%41-62-12.6%127-126-12.8%

Games — 2026-06-15

07-03 07-02 07-01 06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11
MIA@PHI
2026-06-15 · Mon 06:41 PM ET · MIA 0 — PHI 7 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostPHI -19854%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)PHI -19860%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DPHI -19851%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedPHI -19858%✓+1.00u
LightGBMPHI -19852%✓+1.00u
XGBoostPHI -19852%✓+1.00u
KC@WSH
2026-06-15 · Mon 06:46 PM ET · KC 3 — WSH 7 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostWSH -13254%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)WSH -13256%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DWSH -13254%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedWSH -13256%✓+1.00u
LightGBMWSH -13251%✓+1.00u
XGBoostWSH -13252%✓+1.00u
NYM@CIN
2026-06-15 · Mon 07:11 PM ET · NYM 0 — CIN 12 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostCIN -13554%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)CIN -13562%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DCIN -13556%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedCIN -13558%✓+1.00u
LightGBMCIN -13552%✓+1.00u
XGBoostCIN -13552%✓+1.00u
SD@STL
2026-06-15 · Mon 07:46 PM ET · SD 0 — STL 3 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostSTL -14855%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)STL -14854%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DSTL -14860%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedSTL -14861%✓+1.00u
LightGBMSTL -14854%✓+1.00u
XGBoostSTL -14852%✓+1.00u
MIN@TEX
2026-06-15 · Mon 08:06 PM ET · MIN 4 — TEX 2 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30DTEX -16560%✗-1.65u
LOGISTIC blendedTEX -16561%✗-1.65u
COL@CHC
2026-06-15 · Mon 08:06 PM ET · COL 4 — CHC 5 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostCHC -20652%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)CHC -20654%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DCHC -20663%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedCHC -20655%✓+1.00u
LightGBMCHC -20650%✓+1.00u
XGBoostCHC -20652%✓+1.00u
DET@HOU
2026-06-15 · Mon 08:11 PM ET · DET 9 — HOU 3 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostHOU -13653%✗-1.36u
LOGISTIC (baseline)HOU -13657%✗-1.36u
LOGISTIC L30DHOU -13659%✗-1.36u
LOGISTIC blendedHOU -13659%✗-1.36u
LightGBMHOU -13651%✗-1.36u
XGBoostHOU -13652%✗-1.36u
PIT@OAK
2026-06-15 · Mon 09:41 PM ET · PIT 2 — OAK 11 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30DOAK -12658%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedOAK -12654%✓+1.00u
LAA@ARI
2026-06-15 · Mon 09:41 PM ET · LAA 3 — ARI 4 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30DARI -13257%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedARI -13254%✓+1.00u
TB@LAD
2026-06-15 · Mon 10:11 PM ET · TB 3 — LAD 4 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostLAD -16155%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)LAD -16156%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DLAD -16155%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedLAD -16158%✓+1.00u
LightGBMLAD -16153%✓+1.00u
XGBoostLAD -16152%✓+1.00u
Each model's pick = the side it favored to win, on EVERY game (no edge filter). Graded vs the locked final, staked favorites bet-to-win-1u, underdogs risk-1u. Prices are the opening line. PAPER ONLY — research, not bet recommendations. Betting every game pays the vig on every game, so negative totals are expected.