Model Records — 2026

Every model's pick on every game · paper · updated Jun 29, 11:31 PM ET

Season standings (all 2026) — sorted by underdog ROI

ModelOverallROIDogsDog ROIFavsFav ROI
LOGISTIC (baseline)252-222-5.8%45-41+11.7%207-181-8.5%
LOGISTIC blended256-220-3.5%45-52-0.2%211-168-4.1%
LightGBM230-244-11.7%49-68-8.3%181-176-12.4%
LOGISTIC L30D247-233-6.1%52-71-8.6%195-162-5.5%
XGBoost161-179-12.5%41-59-10.0%120-120-13.2%
CatBoost159-168-12.6%28-41-12.6%131-127-12.6%

Games — 2026-06-08

06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11 06-10 06-09 06-08
SEA@BAL
2026-06-08 · Mon 06:36 PM ET · SEA 6 — BAL 3 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30DSEA -12953%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedBAL +11053%✗-1.00u
BOS@TB
2026-06-08 · Mon 06:41 PM ET · BOS 1 — TB 3 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostTB -10253%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)TB -10251%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DTB -10256%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedTB -10258%✓+1.00u
LightGBMBOS -11550%✗-1.15u
XGBoostTB -10258%✓+1.00u
NYY@CLE
2026-06-08 · Mon 06:41 PM ET · NYY 7 — CLE 5 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostCLE -11557%✗-1.15u
LOGISTIC (baseline)CLE -11555%✗-1.15u
LOGISTIC L30DCLE -11554%✗-1.15u
LOGISTIC blendedCLE -11550%✗-1.15u
LightGBMCLE -11553%✗-1.15u
XGBoostCLE -11558%✗-1.15u
PHI@TOR
2026-06-08 · Mon 07:08 PM ET · PHI 5 — TOR 2 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostPHI -17955%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)PHI -17952%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DTOR +15053%✗-1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedPHI -17954%✓+1.00u
LightGBMPHI -17950%✓+1.00u
XGBoostTOR +15056%✗-1.00u
HOU@LAA
2026-06-08 · Mon 09:39 PM ET · HOU 5 — LAA 4 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30DLAA +10551%✗-1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedLAA +10556%✗-1.00u
CIN@SD
2026-06-08 · Mon 09:41 PM ET · CIN 2 — SD 6 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostCIN +11556%✗-1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)CIN +11550%✗-1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DSD -13551%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedCIN +11552%✗-1.00u
LightGBMCIN +11553%✗-1.00u
XGBoostCIN +11550%✗-1.00u
WSH@SF
2026-06-08 · Mon 09:46 PM ET · WSH 4 — SF 3 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostSF -17560%✗-1.75u
LOGISTIC (baseline)SF -17562%✗-1.75u
LOGISTIC L30DSF -17558%✗-1.75u
LOGISTIC blendedSF -17560%✗-1.75u
LightGBMSF -17556%✗-1.75u
XGBoostSF -17558%✗-1.75u
MIL@OAK
2026-06-08 · Mon 10:06 PM ET · MIL 15 — OAK 14 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostOAK +13454%✗-1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)OAK +13454%✗-1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DOAK +13451%✗-1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedOAK +13452%✗-1.00u
LightGBMOAK +13456%✗-1.00u
XGBoostOAK +13455%✗-1.00u
Each model's pick = the side it favored to win, on EVERY game (no edge filter). Graded vs the locked final, staked favorites bet-to-win-1u, underdogs risk-1u. Prices are the opening line. PAPER ONLY — research, not bet recommendations. Betting every game pays the vig on every game, so negative totals are expected.