Model Records — 2026

Every model's pick on every game · paper · updated Jun 26, 05:22 PM ET

Season standings (all 2026) — sorted by underdog ROI

ModelOverallROIDogsDog ROIFavsFav ROI
LR3507-450-5.9%92-103+2.8%415-347-7.4%
LightGBM WF-daily-aug231-208-5.8%54-63+2.3%177-145-7.8%
LOGISTIC blended340-303-5.4%60-67+1.5%280-236-6.5%
LOGISTIC (baseline)412-364-5.8%70-78+1.4%342-286-6.9%
LightGBM WF-daily211-200-7.2%47-59-0.3%164-141-8.8%
LOGISTIC L30D338-310-5.0%72-91-3.5%266-219-5.3%
LightGBM WF410-381-6.8%91-117-3.7%319-264-7.6%
LightGBM398-378-7.0%83-111-6.1%315-267-7.2%
CatBoost254-240-7.8%41-56-7.8%213-184-7.8%
XGBoost253-254-8.4%56-81-9.7%197-173-8.0%

Games — 2026-06-06

06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11 06-10 06-09 06-08 06-07 06-06 06-05
SEA@DET
2026-06-06 · Sat 01:11 PM ET · SEA 4 — DET 0 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostSEA -13552%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)DET +11654%✗-1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DSEA -13552%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedDET +11652%✗-1.00u
LR3DET +11654%✗-1.00u
LightGBMDET +11653%✗-1.00u
LightGBM WFDET +11652%✗-1.00u
XGBoostDET +11651%✗-1.00u
KC@MIN
2026-06-06 · Sat 02:10 PM ET · KC 3 — MIN 2 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostMIN -14761%✗-1.47u
LOGISTIC (baseline)MIN -14754%✗-1.47u
LOGISTIC L30DMIN -14759%✗-1.47u
LOGISTIC blendedMIN -14761%✗-1.47u
LR3MIN -14754%✗-1.47u
LightGBMMIN -14756%✗-1.47u
LightGBM WFMIN -14753%✗-1.47u
XGBoostMIN -14755%✗-1.47u
CIN@STL
2026-06-06 · Sat 02:16 PM ET · CIN 5 — STL 6 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostSTL -12755%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)STL -12750%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DSTL -12755%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedCIN +11053%✗-1.00u
LR3CIN +11050%✗-1.00u
LightGBMCIN +11050%✗-1.00u
LightGBM WFCIN +11053%✗-1.00u
XGBoostSTL -12752%✓+1.00u
SF@CHC
2026-06-06 · Sat 02:21 PM ET · SF 2 — CHC 3 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostCHC -14157%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)CHC -14156%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DSF +12050%✗-1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedCHC -14157%✓+1.00u
LR3CHC -14157%✓+1.00u
LightGBMSF +12050%✗-1.00u
LightGBM WFCHC -14161%✓+1.00u
XGBoostCHC -14156%✓+1.00u
BAL@TOR
2026-06-06 · Sat 03:08 PM ET · BAL 4 — TOR 6 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostBAL -10852%✗-1.08u
LOGISTIC (baseline)TOR -10652%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DTOR -10659%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedBAL -10851%✗-1.08u
LR3TOR -10652%✓+1.00u
LightGBMBAL -10853%✗-1.08u
LightGBM WFBAL -10855%✗-1.08u
XGBoostTOR -10654%✓+1.00u
CWS@PHI
2026-06-06 · Sat 04:06 PM ET · CWS 6 — PHI 3 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30DCWS +11057%✓+1.10u
LOGISTIC blendedCWS +11055%✓+1.10u
TB@MIA
2026-06-06 · Sat 04:11 PM ET · TB 3 — MIA 4 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30DTB -14751%✗-1.47u
LOGISTIC blendedMIA +12753%✓+1.27u
OAK@HOU
2026-06-06 · Sat 04:11 PM ET · OAK 2 — HOU 13 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30DHOU -11153%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedHOU -11153%✓+1.00u
PIT@ATL
2026-06-06 · Sat 04:11 PM ET · PIT 3 — ATL 6 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostATL -11550%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)ATL -11553%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DPIT -10152%✗-1.01u
LOGISTIC blendedPIT -10155%✗-1.01u
LR3ATL -11553%✓+1.00u
LightGBMPIT -10150%✗-1.01u
LightGBM WFPIT -10162%✗-1.01u
XGBoostATL -11552%✓+1.00u
WSH@ARI
2026-06-06 · Sat 04:11 PM ET · WSH 6 — ARI 1 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostWSH +13652%✓+1.36u
LOGISTIC (baseline)ARI -16152%✗-1.61u
LOGISTIC L30DWSH +13650%✓+1.36u
LOGISTIC blendedWSH +13652%✓+1.36u
LR3WSH +13650%✓+1.36u
LightGBMARI -16153%✗-1.61u
LightGBM WFWSH +13660%✓+1.36u
XGBoostARI -16151%✗-1.61u
CLE@TEX
2026-06-06 · Sat 07:36 PM ET · CLE 6 — TEX 0 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostTEX -11056%✗-1.10u
LOGISTIC (baseline)TEX -11054%✗-1.10u
LOGISTIC L30DTEX -11054%✗-1.10u
LOGISTIC blendedTEX -11054%✗-1.10u
LR3TEX -11054%✗-1.10u
LightGBMTEX -11053%✗-1.10u
LightGBM WFTEX -11055%✗-1.10u
XGBoostTEX -11052%✗-1.10u
MIL@COL
2026-06-06 · Sat 09:10 PM ET · MIL 7 — COL 1 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostMIL -24452%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)MIL -24457%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DMIL -24458%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedMIL -24463%✓+1.00u
LR3MIL -24461%✓+1.00u
LightGBMMIL -24455%✓+1.00u
LightGBM WFMIL -24457%✓+1.00u
XGBoostMIL -24451%✓+1.00u
NYM@SD
2026-06-06 · Sat 10:11 PM ET · NYM 2 — SD 3 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostNYM -12151%✗-1.21u
LOGISTIC (baseline)SD +10451%✓+1.04u
LOGISTIC L30DSD +10453%✓+1.04u
LOGISTIC blendedNYM -12153%✗-1.21u
LR3SD +10451%✓+1.04u
LightGBMNYM -12150%✗-1.21u
LightGBM WFNYM -12166%✗-1.21u
XGBoostSD +10452%✓+1.04u
LAA@LAD
2026-06-06 · Sat 10:11 PM ET · LAA 2 — LAD 9 · Final
ModelPickWin%W/LUnits
CatBoostLAD -32868%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)LAD -32864%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30DLAD -32858%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blendedLAD -32865%✓+1.00u
LR3LAD -32864%✓+1.00u
LightGBMLAD -32861%✓+1.00u
LightGBM WFLAD -32875%✓+1.00u
XGBoostLAD -32860%✓+1.00u
Each model's pick = the side it favored to win, on EVERY game (no edge filter). Graded vs the locked final, staked favorites bet-to-win-1u, underdogs risk-1u. Prices are the opening line. PAPER ONLY — research, not bet recommendations. Betting every game pays the vig on every game, so negative totals are expected.