ALIBI MLB · Model Records

Model	Overall	ROI	Dogs	Dog ROI	Favs	Fav ROI
LR3	507-450	-5.9%	92-103	+2.8%	415-347	-7.4%
LightGBM WF-daily-aug	231-208	-5.8%	54-63	+2.3%	177-145	-7.8%
LOGISTIC blended	340-303	-5.4%	60-67	+1.5%	280-236	-6.5%
LOGISTIC (baseline)	412-364	-5.8%	70-78	+1.4%	342-286	-6.9%
LightGBM WF-daily	211-200	-7.2%	47-59	-0.3%	164-141	-8.8%
LOGISTIC L30D	338-310	-5.0%	72-91	-3.5%	266-219	-5.3%
LightGBM WF	410-381	-6.8%	91-117	-3.7%	319-264	-7.6%
LightGBM	398-378	-7.0%	83-111	-6.1%	315-267	-7.2%
CatBoost	254-240	-7.8%	41-56	-7.8%	213-184	-7.8%
XGBoost	253-254	-8.4%	56-81	-9.7%	197-173	-8.0%

Games — 2026-06-05

SF@CHC

2026-06-05 · Fri 02:21 PM ET · SF 18 — CHC 3 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	CHC -164	57%	✗	-1.64u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	CHC -164	53%	✗	-1.64u
LOGISTIC L30D	SF +135	55%	✓	+1.35u
LOGISTIC blended	SF +135	52%	✓	+1.35u
LR3	CHC -164	54%	✗	-1.64u
LightGBM	SF +135	52%	✓	+1.35u
LightGBM WF	CHC -164	59%	✗	-1.64u
XGBoost	CHC -164	54%	✗	-1.64u

CWS@PHI

2026-06-05 · Fri 06:41 PM ET · CWS 6 — PHI 8 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
LOGISTIC L30D	PHI -189	52%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	PHI -189	57%	✓	+1.00u

SEA@DET

2026-06-05 · Fri 06:41 PM ET · SEA 3 — DET 7 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	SEA -131	56%	✗	-1.31u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	DET +110	51%	✓	+1.10u
LOGISTIC L30D	SEA -131	57%	✗	-1.31u
LOGISTIC blended	SEA -131	52%	✗	-1.31u
LR3	SEA -131	51%	✗	-1.31u
LightGBM	SEA -131	50%	✗	-1.31u
LightGBM WF	DET +110	53%	✓	+1.10u
XGBoost	DET +110	56%	✓	+1.10u

BOS@NYY

2026-06-05 · Fri 07:06 PM ET · BOS 5 — NYY 3 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	NYY -145	57%	✗	-1.45u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	BOS +123	50%	✓	+1.23u
LOGISTIC L30D	NYY -145	53%	✗	-1.45u
LOGISTIC blended	NYY -145	54%	✗	-1.45u
LR3	BOS +123	51%	✓	+1.23u
LightGBM	NYY -145	61%	✗	-1.45u
LightGBM WF	BOS +123	50%	✓	+1.23u
XGBoost	NYY -145	56%	✗	-1.45u

BAL@TOR

2026-06-05 · Fri 07:08 PM ET · BAL 13 — TOR 3 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	TOR -154	57%	✗	-1.54u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	TOR -154	59%	✗	-1.54u
LOGISTIC L30D	BAL +131	51%	✓	+1.31u
LOGISTIC blended	TOR -154	55%	✗	-1.54u
LR3	TOR -154	57%	✗	-1.54u
LightGBM	BAL +131	50%	✓	+1.31u
LightGBM WF	BAL +131	56%	✓	+1.31u
XGBoost	TOR -154	52%	✗	-1.54u

TB@MIA

2026-06-05 · Fri 07:11 PM ET · TB 6 — MIA 0 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	TB -140	52%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	MIA +118	51%	✗	-1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	MIA +118	51%	✗	-1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	TB -140	51%	✓	+1.00u
LR3	MIA +118	50%	✗	-1.00u
LightGBM	TB -140	50%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM WF	TB -140	64%	✓	+1.00u
XGBoost	TB -140	52%	✓	+1.00u

PIT@ATL

2026-06-05 · Fri 07:16 PM ET · PIT 3 — ATL 6 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	ATL -140	53%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	ATL -140	51%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	ATL -140	51%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	PIT +118	52%	✗	-1.00u
LR3	ATL -140	51%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM	PIT +118	52%	✗	-1.00u
LightGBM WF	PIT +118	57%	✗	-1.00u
XGBoost	PIT +118	54%	✗	-1.00u

OAK@HOU

2026-06-05 · Fri 08:11 PM ET · OAK 1 — HOU 5 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
LOGISTIC L30D	OAK -113	52%	✗	-1.13u
LOGISTIC blended	HOU -105	54%	✓	+1.00u

CLE@TEX

2026-06-05 · Fri 08:16 PM ET · CLE 2 — TEX 3 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	CLE -142	50%	✗	-1.42u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	TEX +118	53%	✓	+1.19u
LOGISTIC L30D	CLE -142	51%	✗	-1.42u
LOGISTIC blended	CLE -142	52%	✗	-1.42u
LR3	TEX +118	53%	✓	+1.19u
LightGBM	CLE -142	52%	✗	-1.42u
LightGBM WF	CLE -142	60%	✗	-1.42u
XGBoost	TEX +118	56%	✓	+1.19u

CIN@STL

2026-06-05 · Fri 08:16 PM ET · CIN 3 — STL 10 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	STL -134	53%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	STL -134	51%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	STL -134	51%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	STL -134	53%	✓	+1.00u
LR3	STL -134	52%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM	CIN +116	50%	✗	-1.00u
LightGBM WF	CIN +116	58%	✗	-1.00u
XGBoost	STL -134	51%	✓	+1.00u

KC@MIN

2026-06-05 · Fri 08:16 PM ET · KC 3 — MIN 5 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	MIN -115	55%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	MIN -115	54%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	MIN -115	53%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	MIN -115	57%	✓	+1.00u
LR3	MIN -115	54%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM	KC -105	50%	✗	-1.05u
LightGBM WF	MIN -115	63%	✓	+1.00u
XGBoost	MIN -115	55%	✓	+1.00u

MIL@COL

2026-06-05 · Fri 08:41 PM ET · MIL 9 — COL 7 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	COL +132	55%	✗	-1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	MIL -150	50%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	MIL -150	52%	✓	+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	MIL -150	56%	✓	+1.00u
LR3	MIL -150	52%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM	MIL -150	52%	✓	+1.00u
LightGBM WF	MIL -150	53%	✓	+1.00u
XGBoost	MIL -150	51%	✓	+1.00u

NYM@SD

2026-06-05 · Fri 09:41 PM ET · NYM 5 — SD 0 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
LOGISTIC L30D	SD -128	56%	✗	-1.28u
LOGISTIC blended	SD -128	55%	✗	-1.28u

WSH@ARI

2026-06-05 · Fri 09:41 PM ET · WSH 14 — ARI 1 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
LOGISTIC L30D	WSH +113	50%	✓	+1.13u
LOGISTIC blended	ARI -132	51%	✗	-1.32u

LAA@LAD

2026-06-05 · Fri 10:11 PM ET · LAA 0 — LAD 1 · Final

Model	Pick	Win%	W/L	Units
CatBoost	LAA +158	53%	✗	-1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)	LAA +158	53%	✗	-1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D	LAA +158	50%	✗	-1.00u
LOGISTIC blended	LAA +158	55%	✗	-1.00u
LR3	LAA +158	53%	✗	-1.00u
LightGBM	LAA +158	50%	✗	-1.00u
LightGBM WF	LAA +158	63%	✗	-1.00u
XGBoost	LAD -189	53%	✓	+1.00u

Each model's pick = the side it favored to win, on EVERY game (no edge filter). Graded vs the locked final, staked favorites bet-to-win-1u, underdogs risk-1u. Prices are the opening line. PAPER ONLY — research, not bet recommendations. Betting every game pays the vig on every game, so negative totals are expected.

Model Records — 2026

Season standings (all 2026) — sorted by underdog ROI

Games — 2026-06-05