Paper Lines — Favorites · 2026

Every game's market favorite, tracked per model · paper · updated Jun 30, 09:46 PM ET

Favorites standings (all 2026) — sorted by ROI

ModelRecordUnitsROI
LOGISTIC blended196-153-21.6u-4.2%
LOGISTIC L30D177-144-27.0u-5.8%
LOGISTIC (baseline)196-163-40.5u-7.6%
LightGBM167-155-56.1u-11.7%
CatBoost123-114-41.6u-11.7%
XGBoost110-106-41.4u-12.9%

Games — 2026-06-09

06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11 06-10 06-09
SEA@BAL FAV SEA -120
2026-06-09 · Tue 06:36 PM ET · SEA 6 — BAL 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
NYY@CLE FAV NYY -132
2026-06-09 · Tue 06:41 PM ET · NYY 3 — CLE 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
BOS@TB FAV TB -110
2026-06-09 · Tue 06:41 PM ET · BOS 3 — TB 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
LAD@PIT FAV LAD -110
2026-06-09 · Tue 06:41 PM ET · LAD 12 — PIT 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
ARI@MIA FAV MIA -123
2026-06-09 · Tue 06:41 PM ET · ARI 6 — MIA 10 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
MIN@DET FAV DET -120
2026-06-09 · Tue 06:41 PM ET · MIN 4 — DET 10 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
PHI@TOR FAV PHI -114
2026-06-09 · Tue 07:08 PM ET · PHI 2 — TOR 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
STL@NYM FAV NYM -128
2026-06-09 · Tue 07:11 PM ET · STL 7 — NYM 0 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
ATL@CWS FAV ATL -154
2026-06-09 · Tue 07:41 PM ET · ATL 5 — CWS 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
TEX@KC FAV TEX -121
2026-06-09 · Tue 07:41 PM ET · TEX 3 — KC 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
CHC@COL FAV CHC -147
2026-06-09 · Tue 08:41 PM ET · CHC 3 — COL 7 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC (baseline)53%✗-1.47u
LOGISTIC blended51%✗-1.47u
HOU@LAA FAV HOU -120
2026-06-09 · Tue 09:39 PM ET · HOU 1 — LAA 10 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D51%✗-1.20u
LOGISTIC blended50%✗-1.20u
CIN@SD FAV CIN -112
2026-06-09 · Tue 09:41 PM ET · CIN 5 — SD 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost52%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)51%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended55%✓+1.00u
LightGBM51%✓+1.00u
WSH@SF FAV SF -116
2026-06-09 · Tue 09:46 PM ET · WSH 6 — SF 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost51%✗-1.16u
LOGISTIC (baseline)54%✗-1.16u
LOGISTIC L30D59%✗-1.16u
LOGISTIC blended55%✗-1.16u
LightGBM53%✗-1.16u
XGBoost52%✗-1.16u
MIL@OAK FAV MIL -115
2026-06-09 · Tue 10:06 PM ET · MIL 5 — OAK 7 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
The FAVORITE = the market's lower-priced side; a model is credited when it also favored that side. Staked bet-to-win-1u (a win pays +1u, a loss pays the lay). ROI = net units / units risked. Opening line, PAPER ONLY. Favorites have been a money-loser across every model this year — this page is the receipt.