Paper Lines — Favorites · 2026

Every game's market favorite, tracked per model · paper · updated Jul 02, 02:03 AM ET

Favorites standings (all 2026) — sorted by ROI

ModelRecordUnitsROI
LOGISTIC blended204-156-17.6u-3.3%
LOGISTIC L30D182-147-26.5u-5.5%
LOGISTIC (baseline)203-165-36.1u-6.6%
CatBoost130-119-41.5u-11.2%
LightGBM171-160-58.9u-12.0%
XGBoost114-110-43.1u-12.9%

Games — 2026-06-11

07-01 06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11
STL@NYM FAV NYM -137
2026-06-11 · Thu 01:11 PM ET · STL 4 — NYM 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
ARI@MIA FAV MIA -112
2026-06-11 · Thu 01:11 PM ET · ARI 0 — MIA 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
MIN@DET FAV DET -123
2026-06-11 · Thu 01:11 PM ET · MIN 0 — DET 11 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
TEX@KC FAV KC -122
2026-06-11 · Thu 02:11 PM ET · TEX 4 — KC 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
CHC@COL FAV CHC -152
2026-06-11 · Thu 03:11 PM ET · CHC 9 — COL 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
LAD@PIT FAV LAD -148
2026-06-11 · Thu 06:41 PM ET · LAD 8 — PIT 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D50%✓+1.00u
SEA@BAL FAV SEA -110
2026-06-11 · Thu 07:06 PM ET · SEA 5 — BAL 7 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D56%✗-1.10u
LOGISTIC blended50%✗-1.10u
LightGBM55%✗-1.10u
The FAVORITE = the market's lower-priced side; a model is credited when it also favored that side. Staked bet-to-win-1u (a win pays +1u, a loss pays the lay). ROI = net units / units risked. Opening line, PAPER ONLY. Favorites have been a money-loser across every model this year — this page is the receipt.