Paper Lines — Favorites · 2026

Every game's market favorite, tracked per model · paper · updated Jul 02, 02:03 AM ET

Favorites standings (all 2026) — sorted by ROI

ModelRecordUnitsROI
LOGISTIC blended204-156-17.6u-3.3%
LOGISTIC L30D182-147-26.5u-5.5%
LOGISTIC (baseline)203-165-36.1u-6.6%
CatBoost130-119-41.5u-11.2%
LightGBM171-160-58.9u-12.0%
XGBoost114-110-43.1u-12.9%

Games — 2026-06-25

07-01 06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11
KC@TB FAV TB -142
2026-06-25 · Thu 12:11 PM ET · KC 2 — TB 13 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
SEA@PIT FAV SEA -140
2026-06-25 · Thu 12:36 PM ET · SEA 1 — PIT 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
OAK@SF FAV SF -132
2026-06-25 · Thu 03:46 PM ET · OAK 9 — SF 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost57%✗-1.32u
LOGISTIC (baseline)54%✗-1.32u
LOGISTIC L30D55%✗-1.32u
LOGISTIC blended56%✗-1.32u
LightGBM52%✗-1.32u
XGBoost53%✗-1.32u
HOU@DET FAV DET -120
2026-06-25 · Thu 06:41 PM ET · HOU 2 — DET 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D54%✗-1.20u
LOGISTIC blended54%✗-1.20u
PHI@WSH FAV PHI -182
2026-06-25 · Thu 06:46 PM ET · PHI 10 — WSH 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC (baseline)55%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended51%✓+1.00u
LightGBM50%✓+1.00u
TEX@TOR FAV TOR -149
2026-06-25 · Thu 07:08 PM ET · TEX 6 — TOR 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost52%✗-1.49u
LOGISTIC (baseline)53%✗-1.49u
LOGISTIC L30D61%✗-1.49u
LOGISTIC blended51%✗-1.49u
LightGBM53%✗-1.49u
XGBoost53%✗-1.49u
CHC@NYM FAV NYM -114
2026-06-25 · Thu 07:11 PM ET · CHC 4 — NYM 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost53%✗-1.14u
LOGISTIC (baseline)57%✗-1.14u
LOGISTIC L30D54%✗-1.14u
LOGISTIC blended52%✗-1.14u
LightGBM52%✗-1.14u
XGBoost52%✗-1.14u
NYY@BOS FAV NYY -156
2026-06-25 · Thu 07:11 PM ET · NYY 3 — BOS 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D54%✗-1.56u
LOGISTIC blended56%✗-1.56u
The FAVORITE = the market's lower-priced side; a model is credited when it also favored that side. Staked bet-to-win-1u (a win pays +1u, a loss pays the lay). ROI = net units / units risked. Opening line, PAPER ONLY. Favorites have been a money-loser across every model this year — this page is the receipt.