Paper Lines — Favorites · 2026

Every game's market favorite, tracked per model · paper · updated Jul 02, 02:03 AM ET

Favorites standings (all 2026) — sorted by ROI

ModelRecordUnitsROI
LOGISTIC blended204-156-17.6u-3.3%
LOGISTIC L30D182-147-26.5u-5.5%
LOGISTIC (baseline)203-165-36.1u-6.6%
CatBoost130-119-41.5u-11.2%
LightGBM171-160-58.9u-12.0%
XGBoost114-110-43.1u-12.9%

Games — 2026-06-27

07-01 06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11
HOU@DET FAV DET -126
2026-06-27 · Sat 01:11 PM ET · HOU 8 — DET 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
NYY@BOS FAV NYY -125
2026-06-27 · Sat 01:11 PM ET · NYY 1 — BOS 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
TEX@TOR FAV TOR -175
2026-06-27 · Sat 03:08 PM ET · TEX 7 — TOR 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
CIN@PIT FAV CIN -115
2026-06-27 · Sat 04:06 PM ET · CIN 9 — PIT 7 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC blended55%✓+1.00u
PHI@NYM FAV NYM -138
2026-06-27 · Sat 04:11 PM ET · PHI 2 — NYM 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D52%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended50%✓+1.00u
KC@CWS FAV CWS -144
2026-06-27 · Sat 04:11 PM ET · KC 1 — CWS 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D55%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended59%✓+1.00u
ARI@TB FAV TB -175
2026-06-27 · Sat 06:11 PM ET · ARI 2 — TB 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D62%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended61%✓+1.00u
WSH@BAL FAV BAL -120
2026-06-27 · Sat 07:06 PM ET · WSH 4 — BAL 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D62%✗-1.20u
LOGISTIC blended52%✗-1.20u
COL@MIN FAV MIN -142
2026-06-27 · Sat 07:11 PM ET · COL 8 — MIN 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D58%✗-1.42u
LOGISTIC blended51%✗-1.42u
CHC@MIL FAV MIL -164
2026-06-27 · Sat 07:11 PM ET · CHC 8 — MIL 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost58%✗-1.64u
LOGISTIC (baseline)50%✗-1.64u
LOGISTIC L30D54%✗-1.64u
LOGISTIC blended55%✗-1.64u
LightGBM54%✗-1.64u
XGBoost52%✗-1.64u
SEA@CLE FAV SEA -144
2026-06-27 · Sat 07:11 PM ET · SEA 3 — CLE 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost52%✗-1.44u
LOGISTIC (baseline)55%✗-1.44u
LOGISTIC L30D53%✗-1.44u
LightGBM51%✗-1.44u
MIA@STL FAV STL -142
2026-06-27 · Sat 07:16 PM ET · MIA 5 — STL 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost53%✗-1.42u
LOGISTIC L30D54%✗-1.42u
LOGISTIC blended51%✗-1.42u
LightGBM52%✗-1.42u
XGBoost53%✗-1.42u
LAD@SD FAV LAD -198
2026-06-27 · Sat 08:41 PM ET · LAD 15 — SD 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost53%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)55%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended58%✓+1.00u
LightGBM53%✓+1.00u
ATL@SF FAV SF -130
2026-06-27 · Sat 09:06 PM ET · ATL 0 — SF 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost58%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended64%✓+1.00u
LightGBM54%✓+1.00u
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
OAK@LAA FAV LAA -115
2026-06-27 · Sat 09:39 PM ET · OAK 2 — LAA 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost53%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)52%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D55%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended56%✓+1.00u
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
The FAVORITE = the market's lower-priced side; a model is credited when it also favored that side. Staked bet-to-win-1u (a win pays +1u, a loss pays the lay). ROI = net units / units risked. Opening line, PAPER ONLY. Favorites have been a money-loser across every model this year — this page is the receipt.