Paper Lines — Favorites · 2026

Every game's market favorite, tracked per model · paper · updated Jul 02, 02:03 AM ET

Favorites standings (all 2026) — sorted by ROI

ModelRecordUnitsROI
LOGISTIC blended204-156-17.6u-3.3%
LOGISTIC L30D182-147-26.5u-5.5%
LOGISTIC (baseline)203-165-36.1u-6.6%
CatBoost130-119-41.5u-11.2%
LightGBM171-160-58.9u-12.0%
XGBoost114-110-43.1u-12.9%

Games — 2026-06-21

07-01 06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11
CIN@NYY FAV NYY -127
2026-06-21 · Sun 01:36 PM ET · CIN 4 — NYY 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
MIL@ATL FAV ATL -137
2026-06-21 · Sun 01:36 PM ET · MIL 9 — ATL 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
WSH@TB FAV TB -142
2026-06-21 · Sun 01:41 PM ET · WSH 3 — TB 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
SF@MIA FAV SF -142
2026-06-21 · Sun 01:41 PM ET · SF 1 — MIA 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
CWS@DET FAV DET -115
2026-06-21 · Sun 01:41 PM ET · CWS 4 — DET 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
STL@KC FAV STL -120
2026-06-21 · Sun 02:11 PM ET · STL 12 — KC 10 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
CLE@HOU FAV HOU -132
2026-06-21 · Sun 02:11 PM ET · CLE 1 — HOU 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
SD@TEX FAV TEX -146
2026-06-21 · Sun 02:36 PM ET · SD 3 — TEX 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
PIT@COL FAV PIT -145
2026-06-21 · Sun 03:11 PM ET · PIT 8 — COL 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D55%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended52%✓+1.00u
MIN@ARI FAV ARI -127
2026-06-21 · Sun 03:16 PM ET · MIN 4 — ARI 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
LAA@OAK FAV OAK -128
2026-06-21 · Sun 04:06 PM ET · LAA 9 — OAK 7 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LightGBM51%✗-1.28u
XGBoost53%✗-1.28u
BOS@SEA FAV SEA -142
2026-06-21 · Sun 04:11 PM ET · BOS 1 — SEA 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost59%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)63%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D58%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended58%✓+1.00u
LightGBM55%✓+1.00u
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
BAL@LAD FAV LAD -213
2026-06-21 · Sun 04:11 PM ET · BAL 12 — LAD 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost59%✗-2.13u
LOGISTIC (baseline)62%✗-2.13u
LOGISTIC L30D53%✗-2.13u
LOGISTIC blended62%✗-2.13u
LightGBM54%✗-2.13u
XGBoost53%✗-2.13u
NYM@PHI FAV PHI -194
2026-06-21 · Sun 07:21 PM ET · NYM 2 — PHI 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost57%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)59%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D53%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended62%✓+1.00u
LightGBM55%✓+1.00u
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
The FAVORITE = the market's lower-priced side; a model is credited when it also favored that side. Staked bet-to-win-1u (a win pays +1u, a loss pays the lay). ROI = net units / units risked. Opening line, PAPER ONLY. Favorites have been a money-loser across every model this year — this page is the receipt.