Paper Lines — Favorites · 2026

Every game's market favorite, tracked per model · paper · updated Jul 02, 02:03 AM ET

Favorites standings (all 2026) — sorted by ROI

ModelRecordUnitsROI
LOGISTIC blended204-156-17.6u-3.3%
LOGISTIC L30D182-147-26.5u-5.5%
LOGISTIC (baseline)203-165-36.1u-6.6%
CatBoost130-119-41.5u-11.2%
LightGBM171-160-58.9u-12.0%
XGBoost114-110-43.1u-12.9%

Games — 2026-06-20

07-01 06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11
CWS@DET FAV DET -141
2026-06-20 · Sat 01:11 PM ET · CWS 1 — DET 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
CIN@NYY FAV NYY -187
2026-06-20 · Sat 01:36 PM ET · CIN 10 — NYY 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
TOR@CHC FAV CHC -124
2026-06-20 · Sat 02:21 PM ET · TOR 8 — CHC 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
SD@TEX FAV TEX -138
2026-06-20 · Sat 04:06 PM ET · SD 6 — TEX 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost56%✗-1.38u
LOGISTIC (baseline)61%✗-1.38u
LOGISTIC L30D54%✗-1.38u
LOGISTIC blended65%✗-1.38u
LightGBM56%✗-1.38u
XGBoost54%✗-1.38u
WSH@TB FAV TB -120
2026-06-20 · Sat 04:11 PM ET · WSH 4 — TB 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost55%✗-1.20u
LOGISTIC (baseline)60%✗-1.20u
LOGISTIC L30D57%✗-1.20u
LOGISTIC blended51%✗-1.20u
LightGBM52%✗-1.20u
XGBoost53%✗-1.20u
SF@MIA FAV MIA -138
2026-06-20 · Sat 04:11 PM ET · SF 3 — MIA 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost55%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D51%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended52%✓+1.00u
LightGBM51%✓+1.00u
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
MIL@ATL FAV ATL -130
2026-06-20 · Sat 04:11 PM ET · MIL 3 — ATL 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)60%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D53%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended57%✓+1.00u
LightGBM53%✓+1.00u
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
NYM@PHI FAV PHI -179
2026-06-20 · Sat 07:16 PM ET · NYM 3 — PHI 15 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost51%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)52%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D50%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended54%✓+1.00u
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
CLE@HOU FAV HOU -140
2026-06-20 · Sat 07:16 PM ET · CLE 8 — HOU 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost54%✗-1.40u
LOGISTIC L30D55%✗-1.40u
LOGISTIC blended59%✗-1.40u
LightGBM51%✗-1.40u
XGBoost53%✗-1.40u
PIT@COL FAV PIT -204
2026-06-20 · Sat 09:11 PM ET · PIT 1 — COL 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost52%✗-2.04u
LOGISTIC (baseline)59%✗-2.04u
LOGISTIC L30D58%✗-2.04u
LOGISTIC blended59%✗-2.04u
LightGBM56%✗-2.04u
LAA@OAK FAV OAK -168
2026-06-20 · Sat 10:06 PM ET · LAA 7 — OAK 0 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC blended55%✗-1.68u
BOS@SEA FAV SEA -124
2026-06-20 · Sat 10:11 PM ET · BOS 5 — SEA 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost53%✗-1.24u
LOGISTIC L30D57%✗-1.24u
LOGISTIC blended59%✗-1.24u
LightGBM52%✗-1.24u
XGBoost53%✗-1.24u
BAL@LAD FAV LAD -244
2026-06-20 · Sat 10:11 PM ET · BAL 3 — LAD 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost54%✗-2.44u
LOGISTIC (baseline)56%✗-2.44u
LOGISTIC L30D52%✗-2.44u
LOGISTIC blended55%✗-2.44u
LightGBM52%✗-2.44u
XGBoost53%✗-2.44u
MIN@ARI FAV ARI -129
2026-06-20 · Sat 10:11 PM ET · MIN 16 — ARI 8 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost52%✗-1.29u
LOGISTIC (baseline)54%✗-1.29u
LOGISTIC L30D51%✗-1.29u
LOGISTIC blended50%✗-1.29u
XGBoost53%✗-1.29u
The FAVORITE = the market's lower-priced side; a model is credited when it also favored that side. Staked bet-to-win-1u (a win pays +1u, a loss pays the lay). ROI = net units / units risked. Opening line, PAPER ONLY. Favorites have been a money-loser across every model this year — this page is the receipt.