Paper Lines — Favorites · 2026

Every game's market favorite, tracked per model · paper · updated Jul 02, 02:03 AM ET

Favorites standings (all 2026) — sorted by ROI

ModelRecordUnitsROI
LOGISTIC blended204-156-17.6u-3.3%
LOGISTIC L30D182-147-26.5u-5.5%
LOGISTIC (baseline)203-165-36.1u-6.6%
CatBoost130-119-41.5u-11.2%
LightGBM171-160-58.9u-12.0%
XGBoost114-110-43.1u-12.9%

Games — 2026-06-12

07-01 06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11
MIA@PIT FAV PIT -142
2026-06-12 · Fri 06:41 PM ET · MIA 8 — PIT 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D60%✗-1.42u
LOGISTIC blended60%✗-1.42u
SEA@WSH FAV SEA -143
2026-06-12 · Fri 06:46 PM ET · SEA 10 — WSH 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D52%✓+1.00u
SD@BAL FAV BAL -140
2026-06-12 · Fri 07:06 PM ET · SD 3 — BAL 7 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D56%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended60%✓+1.00u
DET@CLE FAV CLE -109
2026-06-12 · Fri 07:11 PM ET · DET 2 — CLE 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D54%✓+1.00u
TEX@BOS FAV BOS -132
2026-06-12 · Fri 07:11 PM ET · TEX 1 — BOS 10 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D56%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended56%✓+1.00u
ATL@NYM FAV NYM -109
2026-06-12 · Fri 07:15 PM ET · ATL 5 — NYM 7 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D51%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended58%✓+1.00u
ARI@CIN FAV ARI -110
2026-06-12 · Fri 07:16 PM ET · ARI 5 — CIN 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
NYY@TOR FAV TOR -109
2026-06-12 · Fri 07:37 PM ET · NYY 5 — TOR 8 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost51%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)56%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D52%✓+1.00u
XGBoost52%✓+1.00u
PHI@MIL FAV MIL -247
2026-06-12 · Fri 07:41 PM ET · PHI 0 — MIL 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost53%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)58%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D58%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended63%✓+1.00u
LightGBM58%✓+1.00u
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
LAD@CWS FAV LAD -135
2026-06-12 · Fri 07:41 PM ET · LAD 2 — CWS 8 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D51%✗-1.35u
STL@MIN FAV MIN -135
2026-06-12 · Fri 08:11 PM ET · STL 8 — MIN 9 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost51%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)57%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D59%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended57%✓+1.00u
LightGBM55%✓+1.00u
XGBoost52%✓+1.00u
HOU@KC FAV HOU -119
2026-06-12 · Fri 08:11 PM ET · HOU 10 — KC 8 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D52%✓+1.00u
TB@LAA FAV TB -177
2026-06-12 · Fri 09:39 PM ET · TB 3 — LAA 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D53%✗-1.77u
COL@OAK FAV OAK -179
2026-06-12 · Fri 10:06 PM ET · COL 4 — OAK 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D62%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended53%✓+1.00u
CHC@SF FAV SF -110
2026-06-12 · Fri 10:16 PM ET · CHC 5 — SF 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost52%✗-1.10u
LOGISTIC (baseline)59%✗-1.10u
LOGISTIC L30D59%✗-1.10u
LOGISTIC blended66%✗-1.10u
LightGBM58%✗-1.10u
XGBoost52%✗-1.10u
The FAVORITE = the market's lower-priced side; a model is credited when it also favored that side. Staked bet-to-win-1u (a win pays +1u, a loss pays the lay). ROI = net units / units risked. Opening line, PAPER ONLY. Favorites have been a money-loser across every model this year — this page is the receipt.