Paper Lines — Favorites · 2026

Every game's market favorite, tracked per model · paper · updated Jul 02, 02:03 AM ET

Favorites standings (all 2026) — sorted by ROI

ModelRecordUnitsROI
LOGISTIC blended204-156-17.6u-3.3%
LOGISTIC L30D182-147-26.5u-5.5%
LOGISTIC (baseline)203-165-36.1u-6.6%
CatBoost130-119-41.5u-11.2%
LightGBM171-160-58.9u-12.0%
XGBoost114-110-43.1u-12.9%

Games — 2026-06-29

07-01 06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11
CWS@BAL FAV BAL -131
2026-06-29 · Mon 06:36 PM ET · CWS 8 — BAL 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC (baseline)51%✗-1.31u
XGBoost53%✗-1.31u
PIT@PHI FAV PHI -113
2026-06-29 · Mon 06:41 PM ET · PIT 11 — PHI 7 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
DET@NYY FAV NYY -142
2026-06-29 · Mon 07:06 PM ET · DET 7 — NYY 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
NYM@TOR FAV TOR -121
2026-06-29 · Mon 07:08 PM ET · NYM 1 — TOR 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost52%✓+1.00u
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
TEX@CLE FAV CLE -135
2026-06-29 · Mon 07:11 PM ET · TEX 6 — CLE 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
WSH@BOS FAV BOS -189
2026-06-29 · Mon 07:11 PM ET · WSH 3 — BOS 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost56%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)53%✓+1.00u
LightGBM53%✓+1.00u
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
CIN@MIL FAV MIL -153
2026-06-29 · Mon 07:41 PM ET · CIN 3 — MIL 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
SD@CHC FAV CHC -154
2026-06-29 · Mon 08:06 PM ET · SD 2 — CHC 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
MIN@HOU FAV HOU -132
2026-06-29 · Mon 08:11 PM ET · MIN 5 — HOU 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
MIA@COL FAV MIA -126
2026-06-29 · Mon 08:41 PM ET · MIA 10 — COL 7 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
LAA@SEA FAV SEA -222
2026-06-29 · Mon 09:41 PM ET · LAA 2 — SEA 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
LAD@OAK FAV LAD -120
2026-06-29 · Mon 09:41 PM ET · LAD 9 — OAK 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
SF@ARI FAV ARI -134
2026-06-29 · Mon 09:41 PM ET · SF 4 — ARI 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
The FAVORITE = the market's lower-priced side; a model is credited when it also favored that side. Staked bet-to-win-1u (a win pays +1u, a loss pays the lay). ROI = net units / units risked. Opening line, PAPER ONLY. Favorites have been a money-loser across every model this year — this page is the receipt.