Paper Lines — Favorites · 2026

Every game's market favorite, tracked per model · paper · updated Jul 02, 02:03 AM ET

Favorites standings (all 2026) — sorted by ROI

ModelRecordUnitsROI
LOGISTIC blended204-156-17.6u-3.3%
LOGISTIC L30D182-147-26.5u-5.5%
LOGISTIC (baseline)203-165-36.1u-6.6%
CatBoost130-119-41.5u-11.2%
LightGBM171-160-58.9u-12.0%
XGBoost114-110-43.1u-12.9%

Games — 2026-06-28

07-01 06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11
CIN@PIT FAV PIT -133
2026-06-28 · Sun 01:36 PM ET · CIN 4 — PIT 9 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
WSH@BAL FAV BAL -190
2026-06-28 · Sun 01:36 PM ET · WSH 6 — BAL 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
TEX@TOR FAV TOR -130
2026-06-28 · Sun 01:38 PM ET · TEX 3 — TOR 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
ARI@TB FAV TB -189
2026-06-28 · Sun 01:41 PM ET · ARI 1 — TB 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
PHI@NYM FAV PHI -149
2026-06-28 · Sun 01:41 PM ET · PHI 5 — NYM 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
HOU@DET FAV HOU -130
2026-06-28 · Sun 01:41 PM ET · HOU 7 — DET 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
SEA@CLE FAV CLE -110
2026-06-28 · Sun 01:41 PM ET · SEA 5 — CLE 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
COL@MIN FAV MIN -152
2026-06-28 · Sun 02:10 PM ET · COL 2 — MIN 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
CHC@MIL FAV MIL -220
2026-06-28 · Sun 02:11 PM ET · CHC 4 — MIL 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
KC@CWS FAV CWS -135
2026-06-28 · Sun 02:11 PM ET · KC 5 — CWS 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
MIA@STL FAV STL -126
2026-06-28 · Sun 02:16 PM ET · MIA 1 — STL 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
OAK@LAA FAV OAK -119
2026-06-28 · Sun 03:16 PM ET · OAK 1 — LAA 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC (baseline)54%✗-1.19u
LightGBM53%✗-1.19u
ATL@SF FAV ATL -152
2026-06-28 · Sun 04:06 PM ET · ATL 2 — SF 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC (baseline)52%✗-1.52u
LightGBM50%✗-1.52u
LAD@SD FAV LAD -144
2026-06-28 · Sun 04:11 PM ET · LAD 4 — SD 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost53%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)52%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended51%✓+1.00u
LightGBM54%✓+1.00u
NYY@BOS FAV BOS -121
2026-06-28 · Sun 07:21 PM ET · NYY 4 — BOS 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost52%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D50%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended55%✓+1.00u
LightGBM50%✓+1.00u
XGBoost52%✓+1.00u
The FAVORITE = the market's lower-priced side; a model is credited when it also favored that side. Staked bet-to-win-1u (a win pays +1u, a loss pays the lay). ROI = net units / units risked. Opening line, PAPER ONLY. Favorites have been a money-loser across every model this year — this page is the receipt.