Paper Lines — Favorites · 2026

Every game's market favorite, tracked per model · paper · updated Jul 02, 02:03 AM ET

Favorites standings (all 2026) — sorted by ROI

ModelRecordUnitsROI
LOGISTIC blended204-156-17.6u-3.3%
LOGISTIC L30D182-147-26.5u-5.5%
LOGISTIC (baseline)203-165-36.1u-6.6%
CatBoost130-119-41.5u-11.2%
LightGBM171-160-58.9u-12.0%
XGBoost114-110-43.1u-12.9%

Games — 2026-06-26

07-01 06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11
CIN@PIT FAV PIT -215
2026-06-26 · Fri 06:41 PM ET · CIN 6 — PIT 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost57%✗-2.15u
LOGISTIC (baseline)58%✗-2.15u
LOGISTIC L30D62%✗-2.15u
LOGISTIC blended63%✗-2.15u
LightGBM58%✗-2.15u
XGBoost53%✗-2.15u
HOU@DET FAV DET -115
2026-06-26 · Fri 06:41 PM ET · HOU 0 — DET 8 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost52%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D53%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended56%✓+1.00u
LightGBM50%✓+1.00u
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
WSH@BAL FAV BAL -141
2026-06-26 · Fri 07:06 PM ET · WSH 1 — BAL 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost55%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)57%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D60%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended59%✓+1.00u
LightGBM54%✓+1.00u
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
TEX@TOR FAV TEX -112
2026-06-26 · Fri 07:08 PM ET · TEX 5 — TOR 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC blended56%✓+1.00u
ARI@TB FAV TB -138
2026-06-26 · Fri 07:10 PM ET · ARI 1 — TB 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)51%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D59%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended54%✓+1.00u
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
PHI@NYM FAV PHI -159
2026-06-26 · Fri 07:11 PM ET · PHI 2 — NYM 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC blended58%✓+1.00u
SEA@CLE FAV CLE -112
2026-06-26 · Fri 07:11 PM ET · SEA 3 — CLE 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost53%✗-1.12u
LOGISTIC (baseline)56%✗-1.12u
LightGBM53%✗-1.12u
XGBoost53%✗-1.12u
NYY@BOS FAV NYY -116
2026-06-26 · Fri 07:11 PM ET · NYY 1 — BOS 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D51%✗-1.16u
KC@CWS FAV CWS -133
2026-06-26 · Fri 07:41 PM ET · KC 1 — CWS 22 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D51%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended55%✓+1.00u
CHC@MIL FAV MIL -267
2026-06-26 · Fri 07:46 PM ET · CHC 2 — MIL 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended59%✓+1.00u
COL@MIN FAV MIN -163
2026-06-26 · Fri 08:11 PM ET · COL 8 — MIN 9 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D62%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended55%✓+1.00u
MIA@STL FAV STL -120
2026-06-26 · Fri 08:15 PM ET · MIA 4 — STL 0 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D53%✗-1.20u
LOGISTIC blended53%✗-1.20u
OAK@LAA FAV OAK -123
2026-06-26 · Fri 09:39 PM ET · OAK 9 — LAA 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D51%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended55%✓+1.00u
LAD@SD FAV LAD -149
2026-06-26 · Fri 09:46 PM ET · LAD 1 — SD 7 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
ATL@SF FAV ATL -119
2026-06-26 · Fri 10:16 PM ET · ATL 3 — SF 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
The FAVORITE = the market's lower-priced side; a model is credited when it also favored that side. Staked bet-to-win-1u (a win pays +1u, a loss pays the lay). ROI = net units / units risked. Opening line, PAPER ONLY. Favorites have been a money-loser across every model this year — this page is the receipt.