Paper Lines — Favorites · 2026

Every game's market favorite, tracked per model · paper · updated Jul 02, 02:03 AM ET

Favorites standings (all 2026) — sorted by ROI

ModelRecordUnitsROI
LOGISTIC blended204-156-17.6u-3.3%
LOGISTIC L30D182-147-26.5u-5.5%
LOGISTIC (baseline)203-165-36.1u-6.6%
CatBoost130-119-41.5u-11.2%
LightGBM171-160-58.9u-12.0%
XGBoost114-110-43.1u-12.9%

Games — 2026-06-16

07-01 06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11
MIA@PHI FAV PHI -167
2026-06-16 · Tue 06:41 PM ET · MIA 2 — PHI 8 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended57%✓+1.00u
TOR@BOS FAV TOR -118
2026-06-16 · Tue 06:45 PM ET · TOR 6 — BOS 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D52%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended57%✓+1.00u
KC@WSH FAV WSH -125
2026-06-16 · Tue 06:46 PM ET · KC 4 — WSH 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC blended51%✓+1.00u
CWS@NYY FAV NYY -142
2026-06-16 · Tue 07:06 PM ET · CWS 2 — NYY 12 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
NYM@CIN FAV NYM -123
2026-06-16 · Tue 07:11 PM ET · NYM 3 — CIN 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC blended53%✗-1.23u
SF@ATL FAV ATL -152
2026-06-16 · Tue 07:16 PM ET · SF 7 — ATL 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost53%✗-1.52u
LOGISTIC (baseline)57%✗-1.52u
LOGISTIC L30D53%✗-1.52u
LOGISTIC blended54%✗-1.52u
XGBoost53%✗-1.52u
CLE@MIL FAV MIL -149
2026-06-16 · Tue 07:41 PM ET · CLE 1 — MIL 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost56%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)53%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D52%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended57%✓+1.00u
LightGBM53%✓+1.00u
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
SD@STL FAV STL -110
2026-06-16 · Tue 07:46 PM ET · SD 2 — STL 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)50%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D56%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended54%✓+1.00u
LightGBM54%✓+1.00u
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
MIN@TEX FAV TEX -140
2026-06-16 · Tue 08:06 PM ET · MIN 12 — TEX 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost52%✗-1.40u
LOGISTIC (baseline)52%✗-1.40u
LOGISTIC L30D54%✗-1.40u
XGBoost53%✗-1.40u
COL@CHC FAV CHC -192
2026-06-16 · Tue 08:06 PM ET · COL 5 — CHC 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost55%✗-1.92u
LOGISTIC (baseline)60%✗-1.92u
LOGISTIC L30D64%✗-1.92u
LOGISTIC blended57%✗-1.92u
LightGBM56%✗-1.92u
XGBoost53%✗-1.92u
DET@HOU FAV HOU -146
2026-06-16 · Tue 08:11 PM ET · DET 2 — HOU 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)55%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D55%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended55%✓+1.00u
LightGBM52%✓+1.00u
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
BAL@SEA FAV SEA -148
2026-06-16 · Tue 09:41 PM ET · BAL 1 — SEA 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost56%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)65%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D58%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended61%✓+1.00u
LightGBM54%✓+1.00u
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
PIT@OAK FAV OAK -123
2026-06-16 · Tue 09:41 PM ET · PIT 6 — OAK 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost55%✗-1.23u
LOGISTIC (baseline)50%✗-1.23u
LOGISTIC L30D51%✗-1.23u
LOGISTIC blended50%✗-1.23u
LightGBM55%✗-1.23u
XGBoost53%✗-1.23u
LAA@ARI FAV ARI -112
2026-06-16 · Tue 09:41 PM ET · LAA 7 — ARI 0 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost50%✗-1.12u
LOGISTIC (baseline)51%✗-1.12u
LightGBM51%✗-1.12u
XGBoost53%✗-1.12u
TB@LAD FAV LAD -147
2026-06-16 · Tue 10:11 PM ET · TB 0 — LAD 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost56%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D55%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended58%✓+1.00u
LightGBM53%✓+1.00u
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
The FAVORITE = the market's lower-priced side; a model is credited when it also favored that side. Staked bet-to-win-1u (a win pays +1u, a loss pays the lay). ROI = net units / units risked. Opening line, PAPER ONLY. Favorites have been a money-loser across every model this year — this page is the receipt.