Paper Lines — Favorites · 2026

Every game's market favorite, tracked per model · paper · updated Jul 02, 02:03 AM ET

Favorites standings (all 2026) — sorted by ROI

ModelRecordUnitsROI
LOGISTIC blended204-156-17.6u-3.3%
LOGISTIC L30D182-147-26.5u-5.5%
LOGISTIC (baseline)203-165-36.1u-6.6%
CatBoost130-119-41.5u-11.2%
LightGBM171-160-58.9u-12.0%
XGBoost114-110-43.1u-12.9%

Games — 2026-06-15

07-01 06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11
MIA@PHI FAV PHI -198
2026-06-15 · Mon 06:41 PM ET · MIA 0 — PHI 7 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)60%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D51%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended58%✓+1.00u
LightGBM52%✓+1.00u
XGBoost52%✓+1.00u
KC@WSH FAV WSH -132
2026-06-15 · Mon 06:46 PM ET · KC 3 — WSH 7 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)56%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended56%✓+1.00u
LightGBM51%✓+1.00u
XGBoost52%✓+1.00u
NYM@CIN FAV CIN -135
2026-06-15 · Mon 07:11 PM ET · NYM 0 — CIN 12 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)62%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D56%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended58%✓+1.00u
LightGBM52%✓+1.00u
XGBoost52%✓+1.00u
SD@STL FAV STL -148
2026-06-15 · Mon 07:46 PM ET · SD 0 — STL 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost55%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D60%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended61%✓+1.00u
LightGBM54%✓+1.00u
XGBoost52%✓+1.00u
MIN@TEX FAV TEX -165
2026-06-15 · Mon 08:06 PM ET · MIN 4 — TEX 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D60%✗-1.65u
LOGISTIC blended61%✗-1.65u
COL@CHC FAV CHC -206
2026-06-15 · Mon 08:06 PM ET · COL 4 — CHC 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost52%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D63%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended55%✓+1.00u
LightGBM50%✓+1.00u
XGBoost52%✓+1.00u
DET@HOU FAV HOU -136
2026-06-15 · Mon 08:11 PM ET · DET 9 — HOU 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost53%✗-1.36u
LOGISTIC (baseline)57%✗-1.36u
LOGISTIC L30D59%✗-1.36u
LOGISTIC blended59%✗-1.36u
LightGBM51%✗-1.36u
XGBoost52%✗-1.36u
PIT@OAK FAV OAK -126
2026-06-15 · Mon 09:41 PM ET · PIT 2 — OAK 11 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D58%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended54%✓+1.00u
LAA@ARI FAV ARI -132
2026-06-15 · Mon 09:41 PM ET · LAA 3 — ARI 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D57%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended54%✓+1.00u
TB@LAD FAV LAD -161
2026-06-15 · Mon 10:11 PM ET · TB 3 — LAD 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost55%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)56%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D55%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended58%✓+1.00u
LightGBM53%✓+1.00u
XGBoost52%✓+1.00u
The FAVORITE = the market's lower-priced side; a model is credited when it also favored that side. Staked bet-to-win-1u (a win pays +1u, a loss pays the lay). ROI = net units / units risked. Opening line, PAPER ONLY. Favorites have been a money-loser across every model this year — this page is the receipt.