Paper Lines — Favorites · 2026

Every game's market favorite, tracked per model · paper · updated Jul 02, 02:03 AM ET

Favorites standings (all 2026) — sorted by ROI

ModelRecordUnitsROI
LOGISTIC blended204-156-17.6u-3.3%
LOGISTIC L30D182-147-26.5u-5.5%
LOGISTIC (baseline)203-165-36.1u-6.6%
CatBoost130-119-41.5u-11.2%
LightGBM171-160-58.9u-12.0%
XGBoost114-110-43.1u-12.9%

Games — 2026-06-19

07-01 06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11
TOR@CHC FAV CHC -118
2026-06-19 · Fri 02:21 PM ET · TOR 2 — CHC 16 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
CWS@DET FAV DET -225
2026-06-19 · Fri 06:41 PM ET · CWS 3 — DET 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost55%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)61%✓+1.00u
LightGBM54%✓+1.00u
XGBoost52%✓+1.00u
CIN@NYY FAV NYY -256
2026-06-19 · Fri 07:06 PM ET · CIN 0 — NYY 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
WSH@TB FAV TB -120
2026-06-19 · Fri 07:11 PM ET · WSH 2 — TB 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost57%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)60%✓+1.00u
LightGBM54%✓+1.00u
XGBoost52%✓+1.00u
SF@MIA FAV MIA -130
2026-06-19 · Fri 07:11 PM ET · SF 3 — MIA 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost52%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)55%✓+1.00u
XGBoost52%✓+1.00u
MIL@ATL FAV MIL -165
2026-06-19 · Fri 07:16 PM ET · MIL 2 — ATL 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost50%✗-1.65u
LOGISTIC (baseline)51%✗-1.65u
LightGBM52%✗-1.65u
SD@TEX FAV TEX -154
2026-06-19 · Fri 08:06 PM ET · SD 7 — TEX 9 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
CLE@HOU FAV HOU -115
2026-06-19 · Fri 08:11 PM ET · CLE 3 — HOU 9 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
STL@KC FAV STL -119
2026-06-19 · Fri 08:16 PM ET · STL 5 — KC 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
PIT@COL FAV PIT -132
2026-06-19 · Fri 08:41 PM ET · PIT 3 — COL 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
LAA@OAK FAV OAK -163
2026-06-19 · Fri 09:41 PM ET · LAA 11 — OAK 12 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
MIN@ARI FAV ARI -161
2026-06-19 · Fri 09:46 PM ET · MIN 5 — ARI 9 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
BOS@SEA FAV SEA -130
2026-06-19 · Fri 10:11 PM ET · BOS 6 — SEA 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
BAL@LAD FAV LAD -189
2026-06-19 · Fri 10:11 PM ET · BAL 5 — LAD 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
The FAVORITE = the market's lower-priced side; a model is credited when it also favored that side. Staked bet-to-win-1u (a win pays +1u, a loss pays the lay). ROI = net units / units risked. Opening line, PAPER ONLY. Favorites have been a money-loser across every model this year — this page is the receipt.