Paper Lines — Favorites · 2026

Every game's market favorite, tracked per model · paper · updated Jul 02, 02:03 AM ET

Favorites standings (all 2026) — sorted by ROI

ModelRecordUnitsROI
LOGISTIC blended204-156-17.6u-3.3%
LOGISTIC L30D182-147-26.5u-5.5%
LOGISTIC (baseline)203-165-36.1u-6.6%
CatBoost130-119-41.5u-11.2%
LightGBM171-160-58.9u-12.0%
XGBoost114-110-43.1u-12.9%

Games — 2026-06-23

07-01 06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11
HOU@TOR FAV TOR -140
2026-06-23 · Tue 04:08 PM ET · HOU 9 — TOR 7 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D53%✗-1.40u
LOGISTIC blended57%✗-1.40u
KC@TB FAV TB -189
2026-06-23 · Tue 06:41 PM ET · KC 12 — TB 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC blended52%✗-1.89u
SEA@PIT FAV SEA -119
2026-06-23 · Tue 06:41 PM ET · SEA 3 — PIT 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
TEX@MIA FAV MIA -154
2026-06-23 · Tue 06:41 PM ET · TEX 4 — MIA 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost55%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)56%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D62%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended57%✓+1.00u
LightGBM53%✓+1.00u
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
NYY@DET FAV NYY -114
2026-06-23 · Tue 06:41 PM ET · NYY 4 — DET 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC (baseline)50%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D51%✓+1.00u
PHI@WSH FAV PHI -165
2026-06-23 · Tue 06:46 PM ET · PHI 14 — WSH 9 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC (baseline)52%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D51%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended57%✓+1.00u
LightGBM50%✓+1.00u
CHC@NYM FAV NYM -142
2026-06-23 · Tue 07:11 PM ET · CHC 9 — NYM 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC (baseline)52%✗-1.42u
LOGISTIC L30D57%✗-1.42u
LOGISTIC blended50%✗-1.42u
XGBoost53%✗-1.42u
MIL@CIN FAV MIL -120
2026-06-23 · Tue 07:11 PM ET · MIL 2 — CIN 0 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
LAD@MIN FAV LAD -135
2026-06-23 · Tue 07:41 PM ET · LAD 12 — MIN 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D52%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended56%✓+1.00u
CLE@CWS FAV CLE -114
2026-06-23 · Tue 07:41 PM ET · CLE 1 — CWS 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
ARI@STL FAV STL -111
2026-06-23 · Tue 07:46 PM ET · ARI 4 — STL 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost57%✗-1.11u
LOGISTIC (baseline)54%✗-1.11u
LOGISTIC L30D57%✗-1.11u
LOGISTIC blended57%✗-1.11u
LightGBM55%✗-1.11u
XGBoost53%✗-1.11u
BOS@COL FAV BOS -163
2026-06-23 · Tue 08:41 PM ET · BOS 5 — COL 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D60%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended58%✓+1.00u
BAL@LAA FAV BAL -159
2026-06-23 · Tue 09:39 PM ET · BAL 1 — LAA 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC (baseline)51%✗-1.59u
LightGBM50%✗-1.59u
ATL@SD FAV ATL -110
2026-06-23 · Tue 09:40 PM ET · ATL 6 — SD 7 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
OAK@SF FAV SF -122
2026-06-23 · Tue 09:46 PM ET · OAK 1 — SF 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)59%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D66%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended64%✓+1.00u
LightGBM53%✓+1.00u
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
The FAVORITE = the market's lower-priced side; a model is credited when it also favored that side. Staked bet-to-win-1u (a win pays +1u, a loss pays the lay). ROI = net units / units risked. Opening line, PAPER ONLY. Favorites have been a money-loser across every model this year — this page is the receipt.