Paper Lines — Favorites · 2026

Every game's market favorite, tracked per model · paper · updated Jul 02, 02:03 AM ET

Favorites standings (all 2026) — sorted by ROI

ModelRecordUnitsROI
LOGISTIC blended204-156-17.6u-3.3%
LOGISTIC L30D182-147-26.5u-5.5%
LOGISTIC (baseline)203-165-36.1u-6.6%
CatBoost130-119-41.5u-11.2%
LightGBM171-160-58.9u-12.0%
XGBoost114-110-43.1u-12.9%

Games — 2026-06-13

07-01 06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11
STL@MIN FAV MIN -110
2026-06-13 · Sat 02:11 PM ET · STL 9 — MIN 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
NYY@TOR FAV NYY -128
2026-06-13 · Sat 03:08 PM ET · NYY 3 — TOR 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
SEA@WSH FAV WSH -110
2026-06-13 · Sat 04:05 PM ET · SEA 3 — WSH 8 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC blended56%✓+1.00u
XGBoost52%✓+1.00u
MIA@PIT FAV PIT -131
2026-06-13 · Sat 04:06 PM ET · MIA 2 — PIT 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost55%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D55%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended51%✓+1.00u
LightGBM56%✓+1.00u
XGBoost52%✓+1.00u
SD@BAL FAV BAL -130
2026-06-13 · Sat 04:06 PM ET · SD 9 — BAL 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D53%✗-1.30u
LOGISTIC blended61%✗-1.30u
ATL@NYM FAV NYM -111
2026-06-13 · Sat 04:10 PM ET · ATL 3 — NYM 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost53%✗-1.11u
LOGISTIC (baseline)58%✗-1.11u
LOGISTIC L30D52%✗-1.11u
LOGISTIC blended64%✗-1.11u
XGBoost52%✗-1.11u
LAD@CWS FAV LAD -198
2026-06-13 · Sat 04:10 PM ET · LAD 7 — CWS 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC (baseline)51%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended52%✓+1.00u
DET@CLE FAV DET -147
2026-06-13 · Sat 04:11 PM ET · DET 1 — CLE 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC blended60%✗-1.47u
LightGBM54%✗-1.47u
ARI@CIN FAV ARI -133
2026-06-13 · Sat 04:11 PM ET · ARI 1 — CIN 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D51%✗-1.33u
LOGISTIC blended52%✗-1.33u
TEX@BOS FAV BOS -118
2026-06-13 · Sat 04:11 PM ET · TEX 3 — BOS 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost50%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)51%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D57%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended50%✓+1.00u
XGBoost52%✓+1.00u
PHI@MIL FAV MIL -138
2026-06-13 · Sat 07:11 PM ET · PHI 9 — MIL 8 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D52%✗-1.38u
LOGISTIC blended52%✗-1.38u
HOU@KC FAV KC -127
2026-06-13 · Sat 07:11 PM ET · HOU 8 — KC 7 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost52%✗-1.27u
LOGISTIC (baseline)54%✗-1.27u
XGBoost52%✗-1.27u
CHC@SF FAV CHC -125
2026-06-13 · Sat 10:06 PM ET · CHC 6 — SF 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
COL@OAK FAV OAK -168
2026-06-13 · Sat 10:06 PM ET · COL 5 — OAK 7 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost52%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D61%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended52%✓+1.00u
LightGBM54%✓+1.00u
XGBoost52%✓+1.00u
TB@LAA FAV TB -111
2026-06-13 · Sat 10:08 PM ET · TB 0 — LAA 8 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost50%✗-1.11u
LOGISTIC (baseline)52%✗-1.11u
LOGISTIC L30D54%✗-1.11u
LOGISTIC blended53%✗-1.11u
LightGBM52%✗-1.11u
The FAVORITE = the market's lower-priced side; a model is credited when it also favored that side. Staked bet-to-win-1u (a win pays +1u, a loss pays the lay). ROI = net units / units risked. Opening line, PAPER ONLY. Favorites have been a money-loser across every model this year — this page is the receipt.