Paper Lines — Favorites · 2026

Every game's market favorite, tracked per model · paper · updated Jul 02, 02:03 AM ET

Favorites standings (all 2026) — sorted by ROI

ModelRecordUnitsROI
LOGISTIC blended204-156-17.6u-3.3%
LOGISTIC L30D182-147-26.5u-5.5%
LOGISTIC (baseline)203-165-36.1u-6.6%
CatBoost130-119-41.5u-11.2%
LightGBM171-160-58.9u-12.0%
XGBoost114-110-43.1u-12.9%

Games — 2026-06-22

07-01 06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11
NYY@DET FAV NYY -126
2026-06-22 · Mon 06:11 PM ET · NYY 3 — DET 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
KC@TB FAV TB -174
2026-06-22 · Mon 06:41 PM ET · KC 2 — TB 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost53%✗-1.74u
LOGISTIC (baseline)56%✗-1.74u
LOGISTIC blended53%✗-1.74u
LightGBM53%✗-1.74u
XGBoost54%✗-1.74u
TEX@MIA FAV MIA -121
2026-06-22 · Mon 06:41 PM ET · TEX 4 — MIA 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost53%✗-1.21u
LOGISTIC (baseline)52%✗-1.21u
LOGISTIC L30D60%✗-1.21u
LOGISTIC blended51%✗-1.21u
LightGBM53%✗-1.21u
XGBoost53%✗-1.21u
PHI@WSH FAV WSH -116
2026-06-22 · Mon 06:46 PM ET · PHI 1 — WSH 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D52%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended54%✓+1.00u
HOU@TOR FAV TOR -128
2026-06-22 · Mon 07:08 PM ET · HOU 2 — TOR 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost53%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)53%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended54%✓+1.00u
LightGBM53%✓+1.00u
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
MIL@CIN FAV MIL -174
2026-06-22 · Mon 07:11 PM ET · MIL 2 — CIN 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC (baseline)50%✓+1.00u
LAD@MIN FAV LAD -154
2026-06-22 · Mon 07:41 PM ET · LAD 2 — MIN 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
CLE@CWS FAV CLE -115
2026-06-22 · Mon 07:41 PM ET · CLE 5 — CWS 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
ARI@STL FAV STL -142
2026-06-22 · Mon 07:46 PM ET · ARI 2 — STL 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D57%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended54%✓+1.00u
LightGBM53%✓+1.00u
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
BOS@COL FAV BOS -124
2026-06-22 · Mon 08:41 PM ET · BOS 2 — COL 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D53%✗-1.24u
BAL@LAA FAV BAL -161
2026-06-22 · Mon 09:39 PM ET · BAL 6 — LAA 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost50%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)58%✓+1.00u
LightGBM51%✓+1.00u
ATL@SD FAV SD -109
2026-06-22 · Mon 10:10 PM ET · ATL 0 — SD 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost55%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D52%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended59%✓+1.00u
LightGBM52%✓+1.00u
XGBoost54%✓+1.00u
The FAVORITE = the market's lower-priced side; a model is credited when it also favored that side. Staked bet-to-win-1u (a win pays +1u, a loss pays the lay). ROI = net units / units risked. Opening line, PAPER ONLY. Favorites have been a money-loser across every model this year — this page is the receipt.