Paper Lines — Favorites · 2026

Every game's market favorite, tracked per model · paper · updated Jul 02, 02:03 AM ET

Favorites standings (all 2026) — sorted by ROI

ModelRecordUnitsROI
LOGISTIC blended204-156-17.6u-3.3%
LOGISTIC L30D182-147-26.5u-5.5%
LOGISTIC (baseline)203-165-36.1u-6.6%
CatBoost130-119-41.5u-11.2%
LightGBM171-160-58.9u-12.0%
XGBoost114-110-43.1u-12.9%

Games — 2026-06-30

07-01 06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11
CWS@BAL FAV BAL -142
2026-06-30 · Tue 06:36 PM ET · CWS 9 — BAL 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC blended56%✗-1.42u
PIT@PHI FAV PHI -200
2026-06-30 · Tue 06:41 PM ET · PIT 0 — PHI 8 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost52%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)53%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D51%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended56%✓+1.00u
LightGBM51%✓+1.00u
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
TEX@CLE FAV TEX -109
2026-06-30 · Tue 06:41 PM ET · TEX 4 — CLE 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)52%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended52%✓+1.00u
DET@NYY FAV NYY -144
2026-06-30 · Tue 07:06 PM ET · DET 9 — NYY 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost52%✗-1.44u
LOGISTIC L30D51%✗-1.44u
LightGBM51%✗-1.44u
XGBoost53%✗-1.44u
NYM@TOR FAV TOR -125
2026-06-30 · Tue 07:08 PM ET · NYM 3 — TOR 0 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost50%✗-1.25u
LightGBM51%✗-1.25u
XGBoost53%✗-1.25u
WSH@BOS FAV BOS -140
2026-06-30 · Tue 07:11 PM ET · WSH 8 — BOS 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost55%✗-1.40u
LOGISTIC (baseline)58%✗-1.40u
LOGISTIC L30D61%✗-1.40u
LOGISTIC blended53%✗-1.40u
LightGBM53%✗-1.40u
XGBoost53%✗-1.40u
STL@ATL FAV ATL -159
2026-06-30 · Tue 07:16 PM ET · STL 5 — ATL 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost51%✗-1.59u
LOGISTIC L30D50%✗-1.59u
LightGBM51%✗-1.59u
XGBoost53%✗-1.59u
CIN@MIL FAV MIL -175
2026-06-30 · Tue 07:41 PM ET · CIN 2 — MIL 7 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D60%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended60%✓+1.00u
TB@KC FAV TB -119
2026-06-30 · Tue 07:41 PM ET · TB 10 — KC 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost51%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended51%✓+1.00u
LightGBM51%✓+1.00u
SD@CHC FAV CHC -154
2026-06-30 · Tue 08:06 PM ET · SD 7 — CHC 9 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost60%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)52%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D53%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended58%✓+1.00u
LightGBM55%✓+1.00u
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
MIN@HOU FAV MIN -116
2026-06-30 · Tue 08:11 PM ET · MIN 4 — HOU 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost57%✗-1.16u
LOGISTIC (baseline)53%✗-1.16u
LOGISTIC blended54%✗-1.16u
LightGBM51%✗-1.16u
MIA@COL FAV MIA -147
2026-06-30 · Tue 08:41 PM ET · MIA 14 — COL 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost55%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)57%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D52%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended53%✓+1.00u
LAD@OAK FAV LAD -144
2026-06-30 · Tue 09:40 PM ET · LAD 9 — OAK 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost51%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)53%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended56%✓+1.00u
SF@ARI FAV ARI -109
2026-06-30 · Tue 09:40 PM ET · SF 2 — ARI 8 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
LAA@SEA FAV SEA -164
2026-06-30 · Tue 09:41 PM ET · LAA 3 — SEA 8 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost56%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D55%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended60%✓+1.00u
LightGBM54%✓+1.00u
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
The FAVORITE = the market's lower-priced side; a model is credited when it also favored that side. Staked bet-to-win-1u (a win pays +1u, a loss pays the lay). ROI = net units / units risked. Opening line, PAPER ONLY. Favorites have been a money-loser across every model this year — this page is the receipt.