Paper Lines — Favorites · 2026

Every game's market favorite, tracked per model · paper · updated Jul 02, 02:03 AM ET

Favorites standings (all 2026) — sorted by ROI

ModelRecordUnitsROI
LOGISTIC blended204-156-17.6u-3.3%
LOGISTIC L30D182-147-26.5u-5.5%
LOGISTIC (baseline)203-165-36.1u-6.6%
CatBoost130-119-41.5u-11.2%
LightGBM171-160-58.9u-12.0%
XGBoost114-110-43.1u-12.9%

Games — 2026-06-14

07-01 06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11
MIA@PIT FAV PIT -163
2026-06-14 · Sun 12:16 PM ET · MIA 4 — PIT 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
SEA@WSH FAV SEA -144
2026-06-14 · Sun 01:36 PM ET · SEA 1 — WSH 10 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
SD@BAL FAV BAL -128
2026-06-14 · Sun 01:36 PM ET · SD 5 — BAL 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
NYY@TOR FAV NYY -125
2026-06-14 · Sun 01:38 PM ET · NYY 8 — TOR 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
ATL@NYM FAV NYM -115
2026-06-14 · Sun 01:41 PM ET · ATL 1 — NYM 8 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
ARI@CIN FAV ARI -111
2026-06-14 · Sun 01:41 PM ET · ARI 5 — CIN 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
STL@MIN FAV MIN -115
2026-06-14 · Sun 02:11 PM ET · STL 4 — MIN 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
PHI@MIL FAV PHI -115
2026-06-14 · Sun 02:11 PM ET · PHI 0 — MIL 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
HOU@KC FAV KC -116
2026-06-14 · Sun 02:11 PM ET · HOU 0 — KC 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
LAD@CWS FAV LAD -189
2026-06-14 · Sun 02:11 PM ET · LAD 4 — CWS 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
COL@OAK FAV OAK -179
2026-06-14 · Sun 03:06 PM ET · COL 23 — OAK 9 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
CHC@SF FAV SF -141
2026-06-14 · Sun 03:11 PM ET · CHC 1 — SF 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
TB@LAA FAV TB -119
2026-06-14 · Sun 04:08 PM ET · TB 8 — LAA 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D55%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended50%✓+1.00u
TEX@BOS FAV BOS -110
2026-06-14 · Sun 07:21 PM ET · TEX 6 — BOS 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost52%✗-1.10u
LOGISTIC (baseline)57%✗-1.10u
LOGISTIC L30D56%✗-1.10u
LOGISTIC blended50%✗-1.10u
LightGBM51%✗-1.10u
XGBoost52%✗-1.10u
The FAVORITE = the market's lower-priced side; a model is credited when it also favored that side. Staked bet-to-win-1u (a win pays +1u, a loss pays the lay). ROI = net units / units risked. Opening line, PAPER ONLY. Favorites have been a money-loser across every model this year — this page is the receipt.