Paper Lines — Favorites · 2026

Every game's market favorite, tracked per model · paper · updated Jul 02, 02:03 AM ET

Favorites standings (all 2026) — sorted by ROI

ModelRecordUnitsROI
LOGISTIC blended204-156-17.6u-3.3%
LOGISTIC L30D182-147-26.5u-5.5%
LOGISTIC (baseline)203-165-36.1u-6.6%
CatBoost130-119-41.5u-11.2%
LightGBM171-160-58.9u-12.0%
XGBoost114-110-43.1u-12.9%

Games — 2026-06-17

07-01 06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11
NYM@CIN FAV NYM -127
2026-06-17 · Wed 12:41 PM ET · NYM 9 — CIN 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
KC@WSH FAV WSH -120
2026-06-17 · Wed 01:06 PM ET · KC 6 — WSH 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
MIA@PHI FAV PHI -115
2026-06-17 · Wed 01:06 PM ET · MIA 12 — PHI 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
SF@ATL FAV ATL -142
2026-06-17 · Wed 02:05 PM ET · SF 7 — ATL 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
DET@HOU FAV DET -110
2026-06-17 · Wed 02:11 PM ET · DET 2 — HOU 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
SD@STL FAV STL -122
2026-06-17 · Wed 02:16 PM ET · SD 6 — STL 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
TB@LAD FAV LAD -185
2026-06-17 · Wed 03:11 PM ET · TB 4 — LAD 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D53%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended65%✓+1.00u
LAA@ARI FAV ARI -164
2026-06-17 · Wed 03:41 PM ET · LAA 1 — ARI 8 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D51%✓+1.00u
TOR@BOS FAV BOS -123
2026-06-17 · Wed 06:46 PM ET · TOR 3 — BOS 0 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC blended52%✗-1.23u
CWS@NYY FAV NYY -169
2026-06-17 · Wed 07:06 PM ET · CWS 5 — NYY 10 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended61%✓+1.00u
CLE@MIL FAV MIL -122
2026-06-17 · Wed 07:41 PM ET · CLE 4 — MIL 9 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D55%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended57%✓+1.00u
LightGBM52%✓+1.00u
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
COL@CHC FAV CHC -183
2026-06-17 · Wed 08:06 PM ET · COL 6 — CHC 8 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D62%✓+1.00u
BAL@SEA FAV SEA -143
2026-06-17 · Wed 09:41 PM ET · BAL 5 — SEA 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost52%✗-1.43u
LOGISTIC (baseline)52%✗-1.43u
LOGISTIC L30D61%✗-1.43u
LOGISTIC blended59%✗-1.43u
LightGBM52%✗-1.43u
XGBoost53%✗-1.43u
PIT@OAK FAV PIT -120
2026-06-17 · Wed 09:41 PM ET · PIT 12 — OAK 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC (baseline)51%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D55%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended58%✓+1.00u
The FAVORITE = the market's lower-priced side; a model is credited when it also favored that side. Staked bet-to-win-1u (a win pays +1u, a loss pays the lay). ROI = net units / units risked. Opening line, PAPER ONLY. Favorites have been a money-loser across every model this year — this page is the receipt.