Paper Lines — Favorites · 2026

Every game's market favorite, tracked per model · paper · updated Jul 02, 02:03 AM ET

Favorites standings (all 2026) — sorted by ROI

ModelRecordUnitsROI
LOGISTIC blended204-156-17.6u-3.3%
LOGISTIC L30D182-147-26.5u-5.5%
LOGISTIC (baseline)203-165-36.1u-6.6%
CatBoost130-119-41.5u-11.2%
LightGBM171-160-58.9u-12.0%
XGBoost114-110-43.1u-12.9%

Games — 2026-06-24

07-01 06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11
TEX@MIA FAV TEX -123
2026-06-24 · Wed 12:11 PM ET · TEX 2 — MIA 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
CLE@CWS FAV CLE -125
2026-06-24 · Wed 02:11 PM ET · CLE 4 — CWS 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
BOS@COL FAV BOS -169
2026-06-24 · Wed 03:11 PM ET · BOS 6 — COL 8 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D55%✗-1.69u
LOGISTIC blended51%✗-1.69u
BAL@LAA FAV LAA -122
2026-06-24 · Wed 04:08 PM ET · BAL 6 — LAA 7 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D58%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended56%✓+1.00u
KC@TB FAV TB -145
2026-06-24 · Wed 06:41 PM ET · KC 3 — TB 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)59%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended56%✓+1.00u
LightGBM54%✓+1.00u
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
SEA@PIT FAV PIT -114
2026-06-24 · Wed 06:41 PM ET · SEA 1 — PIT 11 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended54%✓+1.00u
LightGBM52%✓+1.00u
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
NYY@DET FAV DET -142
2026-06-24 · Wed 06:41 PM ET · NYY 4 — DET 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost54%✗-1.42u
LOGISTIC (baseline)62%✗-1.42u
LOGISTIC L30D52%✗-1.42u
LOGISTIC blended62%✗-1.42u
LightGBM53%✗-1.42u
XGBoost53%✗-1.42u
PHI@WSH FAV PHI -131
2026-06-24 · Wed 06:46 PM ET · PHI 5 — WSH 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC (baseline)54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended53%✓+1.00u
HOU@TOR FAV TOR -154
2026-06-24 · Wed 07:08 PM ET · HOU 3 — TOR 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost54%✗-1.54u
LOGISTIC (baseline)54%✗-1.54u
LOGISTIC blended51%✗-1.54u
LightGBM53%✗-1.54u
XGBoost53%✗-1.54u
CHC@NYM FAV CHC -110
2026-06-24 · Wed 07:11 PM ET · CHC 10 — NYM 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
MIL@CIN FAV MIL -141
2026-06-24 · Wed 07:11 PM ET · MIL 6 — CIN 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC blended51%✓+1.00u
LAD@MIN FAV LAD -180
2026-06-24 · Wed 07:41 PM ET · LAD 4 — MIN 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC blended51%✓+1.00u
ARI@STL FAV STL -118
2026-06-24 · Wed 07:46 PM ET · ARI 9 — STL 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D65%✗-1.18u
LOGISTIC blended62%✗-1.18u
ATL@SD FAV ATL -126
2026-06-24 · Wed 08:41 PM ET · ATL 2 — SD 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
OAK@SF FAV OAK -126
2026-06-24 · Wed 09:46 PM ET · OAK 1 — SF 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
The FAVORITE = the market's lower-priced side; a model is credited when it also favored that side. Staked bet-to-win-1u (a win pays +1u, a loss pays the lay). ROI = net units / units risked. Opening line, PAPER ONLY. Favorites have been a money-loser across every model this year — this page is the receipt.