Paper Lines — Favorites · 2026

Every game's market favorite, tracked per model · paper · updated Jul 02, 02:03 AM ET

Favorites standings (all 2026) — sorted by ROI

ModelRecordUnitsROI
LOGISTIC blended204-156-17.6u-3.3%
LOGISTIC L30D182-147-26.5u-5.5%
LOGISTIC (baseline)203-165-36.1u-6.6%
CatBoost130-119-41.5u-11.2%
LightGBM171-160-58.9u-12.0%
XGBoost114-110-43.1u-12.9%

Games — 2026-06-18

07-01 06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11
TOR@BOS FAV BOS -111
2026-06-18 · Thu 01:36 PM ET · TOR 4 — BOS 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
CLE@MIL FAV MIL -135
2026-06-18 · Thu 02:11 PM ET · CLE 4 — MIL 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
MIN@TEX FAV MIN -118
2026-06-18 · Thu 02:36 PM ET · MIN 9 — TEX 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
BAL@SEA FAV SEA -154
2026-06-18 · Thu 04:11 PM ET · BAL 0 — SEA 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D59%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended61%✓+1.00u
NYM@PHI FAV PHI -125
2026-06-18 · Thu 06:41 PM ET · NYM 6 — PHI 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
CWS@NYY FAV NYY -154
2026-06-18 · Thu 07:06 PM ET · CWS 5 — NYY 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC blended57%✗-1.54u
STL@KC FAV KC -120
2026-06-18 · Thu 07:41 PM ET · STL 6 — KC 14 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC blended50%✓+1.00u
LAA@OAK FAV OAK -130
2026-06-18 · Thu 09:41 PM ET · LAA 0 — OAK 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC blended51%✓+1.00u
The FAVORITE = the market's lower-priced side; a model is credited when it also favored that side. Staked bet-to-win-1u (a win pays +1u, a loss pays the lay). ROI = net units / units risked. Opening line, PAPER ONLY. Favorites have been a money-loser across every model this year — this page is the receipt.