Paper Lines — Favorites · 2026

Every game's market favorite, tracked per model · paper · updated Jul 01, 12:46 PM ET

Favorites standings (all 2026) — sorted by ROI

ModelRecordUnitsROI
LOGISTIC blended204-156-17.6u-3.3%
LOGISTIC L30D182-147-26.5u-5.5%
LOGISTIC (baseline)203-165-36.1u-6.6%
CatBoost130-119-41.5u-11.2%
LightGBM171-160-58.9u-12.0%
XGBoost114-110-43.1u-12.9%

Games — 2026-06-10

07-01 06-30 06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11 06-10
BOS@TB FAV TB -144
2026-06-10 · Wed 01:11 PM ET · BOS 5 — TB 7 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
NYY@CLE FAV CLE -116
2026-06-10 · Wed 01:11 PM ET · NYY 8 — CLE 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
WSH@SF FAV SF -120
2026-06-10 · Wed 03:46 PM ET · WSH 10 — SF 11 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
CIN@SD FAV SD -161
2026-06-10 · Wed 04:11 PM ET · CIN 4 — SD 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
SEA@BAL FAV SEA -125
2026-06-10 · Wed 06:36 PM ET · SEA 2 — BAL 7 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost51%✗-1.25u
LOGISTIC (baseline)53%✗-1.25u
LightGBM51%✗-1.25u
LAD@PIT FAV LAD -189
2026-06-10 · Wed 06:41 PM ET · LAD 8 — PIT 9 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
MIN@DET FAV DET -169
2026-06-10 · Wed 06:41 PM ET · MIN 6 — DET 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
PHI@TOR FAV PHI -142
2026-06-10 · Wed 07:08 PM ET · PHI 7 — TOR 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
STL@NYM FAV NYM -135
2026-06-10 · Wed 07:11 PM ET · STL 9 — NYM 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
TEX@KC FAV TEX -116
2026-06-10 · Wed 07:41 PM ET · TEX 6 — KC 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
ATL@CWS FAV ATL -154
2026-06-10 · Wed 07:41 PM ET · ATL 1 — CWS 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
CHC@COL FAV CHC -164
2026-06-10 · Wed 08:41 PM ET · CHC 2 — COL 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
MIL@OAK FAV MIL -113
2026-06-10 · Wed 09:06 PM ET · MIL 3 — OAK 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
HOU@LAA FAV LAA -121
2026-06-10 · Wed 09:39 PM ET · HOU 2 — LAA 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D60%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended57%✓+1.00u
The FAVORITE = the market's lower-priced side; a model is credited when it also favored that side. Staked bet-to-win-1u (a win pays +1u, a loss pays the lay). ROI = net units / units risked. Opening line, PAPER ONLY. Favorites have been a money-loser across every model this year — this page is the receipt.