Paper Lines — Favorites · 2026

Every game's market favorite, tracked per model · paper · updated Jun 29, 11:31 PM ET

Favorites standings (all 2026) — sorted by ROI

ModelRecordUnitsROI
LOGISTIC blended196-153-21.6u-4.2%
LOGISTIC L30D177-144-27.0u-5.8%
LOGISTIC (baseline)195-162-40.2u-7.6%
LightGBM166-155-57.1u-12.0%
CatBoost121-114-43.6u-12.4%
XGBoost108-105-42.1u-13.2%

Games — 2026-06-08

06-29 06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11 06-10 06-09 06-08
SEA@BAL FAV SEA -129
2026-06-08 · Mon 06:36 PM ET · SEA 6 — BAL 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D53%+1.00u
BOS@TB FAV BOS -115
2026-06-08 · Mon 06:41 PM ET · BOS 1 — TB 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LightGBM50%-1.15u
NYY@CLE FAV CLE -115
2026-06-08 · Mon 06:41 PM ET · NYY 7 — CLE 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost57%-1.15u
LOGISTIC (baseline)55%-1.15u
LOGISTIC L30D54%-1.15u
LOGISTIC blended50%-1.15u
LightGBM53%-1.15u
XGBoost58%-1.15u
PHI@TOR FAV PHI -179
2026-06-08 · Mon 07:08 PM ET · PHI 5 — TOR 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost55%+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)52%+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended54%+1.00u
LightGBM50%+1.00u
HOU@LAA FAV HOU -120
2026-06-08 · Mon 09:39 PM ET · HOU 5 — LAA 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
CIN@SD FAV SD -135
2026-06-08 · Mon 09:41 PM ET · CIN 2 — SD 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D51%+1.00u
WSH@SF FAV SF -175
2026-06-08 · Mon 09:46 PM ET · WSH 4 — SF 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost60%-1.75u
LOGISTIC (baseline)62%-1.75u
LOGISTIC L30D58%-1.75u
LOGISTIC blended60%-1.75u
LightGBM56%-1.75u
XGBoost58%-1.75u
MIL@OAK FAV MIL -150
2026-06-08 · Mon 10:06 PM ET · MIL 15 — OAK 14 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
The FAVORITE = the market's lower-priced side; a model is credited when it also favored that side. Staked bet-to-win-1u (a win pays +1u, a loss pays the lay). ROI = net units / units risked. Opening line, PAPER ONLY. Favorites have been a money-loser across every model this year — this page is the receipt.