Paper Lines — Favorites · 2026

Every game's market favorite, tracked per model · paper · updated Jun 28, 01:47 PM ET

Favorites standings (all 2026) — sorted by ROI

ModelRecordUnitsROI
LOGISTIC blended194-153-23.6u-4.6%
LOGISTIC L30D176-144-28.0u-6.0%
LOGISTIC (baseline)194-160-38.5u-7.3%
LightGBM164-153-56.4u-11.9%
CatBoost119-114-45.6u-13.1%
XGBoost107-105-43.1u-13.6%

Games — 2026-06-07

06-28 06-27 06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11 06-10 06-09 06-08 06-07
BOS@NYY FAV NYY -171
2026-06-07 · Sun 01:35 PM ET · BOS 1 — NYY 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
CWS@PHI FAV PHI -157
2026-06-07 · Sun 01:36 PM ET · CWS 5 — PHI 9 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
PIT@ATL FAV ATL -143
2026-06-07 · Sun 01:36 PM ET · PIT 2 — ATL 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
BAL@TOR FAV TOR -133
2026-06-07 · Sun 01:38 PM ET · BAL 4 — TOR 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
TB@MIA FAV TB -117
2026-06-07 · Sun 01:41 PM ET · TB 1 — MIA 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
SEA@DET FAV SEA -120
2026-06-07 · Sun 01:41 PM ET · SEA 4 — DET 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
KC@MIN FAV KC -110
2026-06-07 · Sun 02:11 PM ET · KC 6 — MIN 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
OAK@HOU FAV OAK -110
2026-06-07 · Sun 02:11 PM ET · OAK 5 — HOU 0 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
CIN@STL FAV STL -131
2026-06-07 · Sun 02:16 PM ET · CIN 3 — STL 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
CLE@TEX FAV TEX -134
2026-06-07 · Sun 02:36 PM ET · CLE 0 — TEX 10 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
MIL@COL FAV MIL -175
2026-06-07 · Sun 03:11 PM ET · MIL 12 — COL 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
WSH@ARI FAV ARI -132
2026-06-07 · Sun 03:16 PM ET · WSH 1 — ARI 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC (baseline)57%✓+1.00u
XGBoost52%✓+1.00u
NYM@SD FAV SD -111
2026-06-07 · Sun 04:11 PM ET · NYM 7 — SD 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost52%✗-1.11u
LOGISTIC (baseline)52%✗-1.11u
XGBoost54%✗-1.11u
LAA@LAD FAV LAD -198
2026-06-07 · Sun 04:11 PM ET · LAA 13 — LAD 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
SF@CHC FAV CHC -116
2026-06-07 · Sun 08:21 PM ET · SF 2 — CHC 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC (baseline)54%✗-1.16u
LightGBM53%✗-1.16u
The FAVORITE = the market's lower-priced side; a model is credited when it also favored that side. Staked bet-to-win-1u (a win pays +1u, a loss pays the lay). ROI = net units / units risked. Opening line, PAPER ONLY. Favorites have been a money-loser across every model this year — this page is the receipt.