Paper Lines — Favorites · 2026

Every game's market favorite, tracked per model · paper · updated Jun 26, 05:34 PM ET

Favorites standings (all 2026) — sorted by ROI

ModelRecordUnitsROI
LOGISTIC (baseline)318-252-51.1u-6.1%
LOGISTIC L30D238-195-39.1u-6.2%
LR3390-310-69.5u-6.6%
LOGISTIC blended258-213-46.2u-6.7%
LightGBM284-232-54.4u-7.1%
LightGBM WF-daily-aug167-131-32.7u-7.2%
LightGBM WF-daily157-127-31.7u-7.4%
LightGBM WF296-239-62.1u-7.6%
CatBoost196-165-41.2u-7.8%
XGBoost175-151-41.3u-8.6%

Games — 2026-06-06

06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11 06-10 06-09 06-08 06-07 06-06 06-05
SEA@DET FAV SEA -135
2026-06-06 · Sat 01:11 PM ET · SEA 4 — DET 0 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost52%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D52%✓+1.00u
KC@MIN FAV MIN -147
2026-06-06 · Sat 02:10 PM ET · KC 3 — MIN 2 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost61%✗-1.47u
LOGISTIC (baseline)54%✗-1.47u
LOGISTIC L30D59%✗-1.47u
LOGISTIC blended61%✗-1.47u
LR354%✗-1.47u
LightGBM56%✗-1.47u
LightGBM WF53%✗-1.47u
XGBoost55%✗-1.47u
CIN@STL FAV STL -127
2026-06-06 · Sat 02:16 PM ET · CIN 5 — STL 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost55%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)50%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D55%✓+1.00u
XGBoost52%✓+1.00u
SF@CHC FAV CHC -141
2026-06-06 · Sat 02:21 PM ET · SF 2 — CHC 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost57%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)56%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended57%✓+1.00u
LR357%✓+1.00u
LightGBM WF61%✓+1.00u
XGBoost56%✓+1.00u
BAL@TOR FAV BAL -108
2026-06-06 · Sat 03:08 PM ET · BAL 4 — TOR 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost52%✗-1.08u
LOGISTIC blended51%✗-1.08u
LightGBM53%✗-1.08u
LightGBM WF55%✗-1.08u
CWS@PHI FAV PHI -127
2026-06-06 · Sat 04:06 PM ET · CWS 6 — PHI 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
no model backs the favorite
TB@MIA FAV TB -147
2026-06-06 · Sat 04:11 PM ET · TB 3 — MIA 4 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D51%✗-1.47u
OAK@HOU FAV HOU -111
2026-06-06 · Sat 04:11 PM ET · OAK 2 — HOU 13 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D53%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended53%✓+1.00u
PIT@ATL FAV ATL -115
2026-06-06 · Sat 04:11 PM ET · PIT 3 — ATL 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost50%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)53%✓+1.00u
LR353%✓+1.00u
XGBoost52%✓+1.00u
WSH@ARI FAV ARI -161
2026-06-06 · Sat 04:11 PM ET · WSH 6 — ARI 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC (baseline)52%✗-1.61u
LightGBM53%✗-1.61u
XGBoost51%✗-1.61u
CLE@TEX FAV TEX -110
2026-06-06 · Sat 07:36 PM ET · CLE 6 — TEX 0 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost56%✗-1.10u
LOGISTIC (baseline)54%✗-1.10u
LOGISTIC L30D54%✗-1.10u
LOGISTIC blended54%✗-1.10u
LR354%✗-1.10u
LightGBM53%✗-1.10u
LightGBM WF55%✗-1.10u
XGBoost52%✗-1.10u
MIL@COL FAV MIL -244
2026-06-06 · Sat 09:10 PM ET · MIL 7 — COL 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost52%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)57%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D58%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended63%✓+1.00u
LR361%✓+1.00u
LightGBM55%✓+1.00u
LightGBM WF57%✓+1.00u
XGBoost51%✓+1.00u
NYM@SD FAV NYM -121
2026-06-06 · Sat 10:11 PM ET · NYM 2 — SD 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost51%✗-1.21u
LOGISTIC blended53%✗-1.21u
LightGBM50%✗-1.21u
LightGBM WF66%✗-1.21u
LAA@LAD FAV LAD -328
2026-06-06 · Sat 10:11 PM ET · LAA 2 — LAD 9 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost68%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)64%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D58%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended65%✓+1.00u
LR364%✓+1.00u
LightGBM61%✓+1.00u
LightGBM WF75%✓+1.00u
XGBoost60%✓+1.00u
The FAVORITE = the market's lower-priced side; a model is credited when it also favored that side. Staked bet-to-win-1u (a win pays +1u, a loss pays the lay). ROI = net units / units risked. Opening line, PAPER ONLY. Favorites have been a money-loser across every model this year — this page is the receipt.