Paper Lines — Favorites · 2026

Every game's market favorite, tracked per model · paper · updated Jun 26, 05:34 PM ET

Favorites standings (all 2026) — sorted by ROI

ModelRecordUnitsROI
LOGISTIC (baseline)318-252-51.1u-6.1%
LOGISTIC L30D238-195-39.1u-6.2%
LR3390-310-69.5u-6.6%
LOGISTIC blended258-213-46.2u-6.7%
LightGBM284-232-54.4u-7.1%
LightGBM WF-daily-aug167-131-32.7u-7.2%
LightGBM WF-daily157-127-31.7u-7.4%
LightGBM WF296-239-62.1u-7.6%
CatBoost196-165-41.2u-7.8%
XGBoost175-151-41.3u-8.6%

Games — 2026-06-05

06-26 06-25 06-24 06-23 06-22 06-21 06-20 06-19 06-18 06-17 06-16 06-15 06-14 06-13 06-12 06-11 06-10 06-09 06-08 06-07 06-06 06-05
SF@CHC FAV CHC -164
2026-06-05 · Fri 02:21 PM ET · SF 18 — CHC 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost57%✗-1.64u
LOGISTIC (baseline)53%✗-1.64u
LR354%✗-1.64u
LightGBM WF59%✗-1.64u
XGBoost54%✗-1.64u
CWS@PHI FAV PHI -189
2026-06-05 · Fri 06:41 PM ET · CWS 6 — PHI 8 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D52%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended57%✓+1.00u
SEA@DET FAV SEA -131
2026-06-05 · Fri 06:41 PM ET · SEA 3 — DET 7 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost56%✗-1.31u
LOGISTIC L30D57%✗-1.31u
LOGISTIC blended52%✗-1.31u
LR351%✗-1.31u
LightGBM50%✗-1.31u
BOS@NYY FAV NYY -145
2026-06-05 · Fri 07:06 PM ET · BOS 5 — NYY 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost57%✗-1.45u
LOGISTIC L30D53%✗-1.45u
LOGISTIC blended54%✗-1.45u
LightGBM61%✗-1.45u
XGBoost56%✗-1.45u
BAL@TOR FAV TOR -154
2026-06-05 · Fri 07:08 PM ET · BAL 13 — TOR 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost57%✗-1.54u
LOGISTIC (baseline)59%✗-1.54u
LOGISTIC blended55%✗-1.54u
LR357%✗-1.54u
XGBoost52%✗-1.54u
TB@MIA FAV TB -140
2026-06-05 · Fri 07:11 PM ET · TB 6 — MIA 0 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost52%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended51%✓+1.00u
LightGBM50%✓+1.00u
LightGBM WF64%✓+1.00u
XGBoost52%✓+1.00u
PIT@ATL FAV ATL -140
2026-06-05 · Fri 07:16 PM ET · PIT 3 — ATL 6 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost53%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)51%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D51%✓+1.00u
LR351%✓+1.00u
OAK@HOU FAV OAK -113
2026-06-05 · Fri 08:11 PM ET · OAK 1 — HOU 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D52%✗-1.13u
CLE@TEX FAV CLE -142
2026-06-05 · Fri 08:16 PM ET · CLE 2 — TEX 3 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost50%✗-1.42u
LOGISTIC L30D51%✗-1.42u
LOGISTIC blended52%✗-1.42u
LightGBM52%✗-1.42u
LightGBM WF60%✗-1.42u
CIN@STL FAV STL -134
2026-06-05 · Fri 08:16 PM ET · CIN 3 — STL 10 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost53%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)51%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D51%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended53%✓+1.00u
LR352%✓+1.00u
XGBoost51%✓+1.00u
KC@MIN FAV MIN -115
2026-06-05 · Fri 08:16 PM ET · KC 3 — MIN 5 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
CatBoost55%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC (baseline)54%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D53%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended57%✓+1.00u
LR354%✓+1.00u
LightGBM WF63%✓+1.00u
XGBoost55%✓+1.00u
MIL@COL FAV MIL -150
2026-06-05 · Fri 08:41 PM ET · MIL 9 — COL 7 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC (baseline)50%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC L30D52%✓+1.00u
LOGISTIC blended56%✓+1.00u
LR352%✓+1.00u
LightGBM52%✓+1.00u
LightGBM WF53%✓+1.00u
XGBoost51%✓+1.00u
NYM@SD FAV SD -128
2026-06-05 · Fri 09:41 PM ET · NYM 5 — SD 0 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC L30D56%✗-1.28u
LOGISTIC blended55%✗-1.28u
WSH@ARI FAV ARI -132
2026-06-05 · Fri 09:41 PM ET · WSH 14 — ARI 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
LOGISTIC blended51%✗-1.32u
LAA@LAD FAV LAD -189
2026-06-05 · Fri 10:11 PM ET · LAA 0 — LAD 1 · Final
Model on favWin%W/LUnits
XGBoost53%✓+1.00u
The FAVORITE = the market's lower-priced side; a model is credited when it also favored that side. Staked bet-to-win-1u (a win pays +1u, a loss pays the lay). ROI = net units / units risked. Opening line, PAPER ONLY. Favorites have been a money-loser across every model this year — this page is the receipt.