First-5 Sim vs Market

CIN @ MILPROJECTED2:11 PM ET

Our First-5 total3.13

Market—

TEAMOUR MLMKT ML

CIN-132—

MIL+132—

Full-game ML (current)CIN +169 · MIL -189 Pinnacle

last sim Jul 2, 12:48 AM ET · 1000 sims

MIA @ COLPROJECTED3:11 PM ET

Our First-5 total4.25

Market—

TEAMOUR MLMKT ML

MIA-134—

COL+134—

Full-game ML (current)MIA -120 · COL +109 BetOnline

last sim Jul 2, 1:53 AM ET · 1000 sims

CWS @ CLEPROJECTED6:41 PM ET

Our First-5 total4.68

Market—

TEAMOUR MLMKT ML

CWS-161—

CLE+161—

Full-game ML (current)CWS -116 · CLE +105 Pinnacle

last sim Jul 2, 12:49 AM ET · 1000 sims

STL @ ATLPROJECTED7:16 PM ET

Our First-5 total4.32

Market—

TEAMOUR MLMKT ML

STL+109—

ATL-109—

Full-game ML (current)STL +102 · ATL -112 BetOnline

last sim Jul 2, 12:47 AM ET · 1000 sims

TB @ KCPROJECTED7:41 PM ET

Our First-5 total4.23

Market—

TEAMOUR MLMKT ML

TB-176—

KC+176—

Full-game ML (current)TB -116 · KC +105 BetOnline

last sim Jul 2, 12:47 AM ET · 1000 sims

DET @ TEXPROJECTED8:06 PM ET

Our First-5 total3.74

Market—

TEAMOUR MLMKT ML

DET+103—

TEX-103—

Full-game ML (current)DET +113 · TEX -125 Pinnacle

last sim Jul 2, 12:48 AM ET · 1000 sims

LAA @ SEAPROJECTED9:41 PM ET

Our First-5 total3.92

Market—

TEAMOUR MLMKT ML

LAA+136—

SEA-136—

Full-game ML (current)LAA +178 · SEA -200 Pinnacle

last sim Jul 2, 12:48 AM ET · 1000 sims

Our First-5 total = sim mean (per-pitch sims; count chosen above, 1000 default — “Re-sim” on a card re-runs just that game). Total = Pinnacle’s First-5 total (Δ = ours − Pinnacle), the sharp line. Moneyline: Pinnacle posts no First-5 moneyline, so the market ML is from one clean book (named in the column header, usually FanDuel) — a single source, not a blend. OUR ML = sim fair moneyline. Away on top, home on bottom; favorite in green. PROJECTED = RotoWire projected lineup; CONFIRMED = official lineup. Finished games show the final First-5 score and whether the sim's total/ML lean was on the right side — descriptive accuracy of a research sim, not a betting record or a demonstrated edge.

First-5 Sim vs Market · 2026-07-02 · Today

Days