First-5 Sim vs Market · 2026-06-18

updated Jul 2, 3:07 AM ET · per-batter sim vs market · finished 6: total leans 4/6 right, ML leans 3/4 right
📊 Sim track record →

Days

2026-07-03
—
Tomorrow2026-07-02
7g
Today2026-07-01
11g2026-06-30
12g · final2026-06-29
7g · final2026-06-28
11g · final2026-06-27
10g · final2026-06-26
11g · final2026-06-25
8g2026-06-24
9g · final2026-06-23
10g · final2026-06-22
8g · final2026-06-21
9g2026-06-20
13g · final2026-06-19
11g · final2026-06-18
7g2026-06-16
10g · final2026-06-15
7g · final2026-06-14
4g · final2026-05-21
1g · final
CLE @ MILFINAL 1–2 (F5)2:11 PM ET
Our First-5 total3.87
Pinnacle4.0-0.1
TEAMOUR MLBetOnline ML
CLE-118+115
MIL+118-135
Full-game ML (current)CLE +126  ·  MIL -137 Pinnacle
total lean UNDER 4✓F5 ML lean AWAY✗
last sim Jun 18, 2:54 AM ET · 1000 sims
MIN @ TEXFINAL 6–0 (F5)2:36 PM ET
Our First-5 total4.51
Pinnacle4.0+0.5
TEAMOUR MLBetOnline ML
MIN-119-141
TEX+119+120
Full-game ML (current)MIN -118  ·  TEX +108 Pinnacle
total lean OVER 4✓F5 ML lean AWAY✓
last sim Jun 18, 2:56 AM ET · 1000 sims
BAL @ SEAFINAL 0–3 (F5)4:11 PM ET
Our First-5 total4.01
Pinnacle4.0+0.0
TEAMOUR MLBetOnline ML
BAL+141+124
SEA-141-145
Full-game ML (current)BAL +121  ·  SEA -132 Pinnacle
total lean OVER 4✗F5 ML lean HOME✓
last sim Jun 18, 2:04 AM ET · 1000 sims
NYM @ PHIFINAL 3–3 (F5)6:41 PM ET
Our First-5 total3.62
Pinnacle5.5-1.9
TEAMOUR MLBetOnline ML
NYM+108-104
PHI-108-116
Full-game ML (current)NYM +105  ·  PHI -114 Pinnacle
total lean UNDER 5.5✗F5 ML lean HOMEpush
last sim Jun 18, 2:57 AM ET · 1000 sims
CWS @ NYYFINAL 1–1 (F5)7:06 PM ET
Our First-5 total4.65
Pinnacle5.5-0.8
TEAMOUR MLBetOnline ML
CWS-133+137
NYY+133-156
Full-game ML (current)CWS +155  ·  NYY -169 Pinnacle
total lean UNDER 5.5✓F5 ML lean AWAYpush
last sim Jun 18, 2:56 AM ET · 1000 sims
SF @ ATLPROJECTED7:16 PM ET
Our First-5 total4.94
Market—
TEAMOUR MLMKT ML
SF+141—
ATL-141—
last sim Jun 18, 2:17 AM ET · 1000 sims
STL @ KCFINAL 4–11 (F5)7:41 PM ET
Our First-5 total5.12
Pinnacle4.5+0.6
TEAMOUR MLBetOnline ML
STL+170-100
KC-170-120
Full-game ML (current)STL +101  ·  KC -109 Pinnacle
total lean OVER 4.5✓F5 ML lean HOME✓
last sim Jun 18, 6:57 PM ET · 1000 sims
Our First-5 total = sim mean (per-pitch sims; count chosen above, 1000 default — “Re-sim” on a card re-runs just that game). Total = Pinnacle’s First-5 total (Δ = ours − Pinnacle), the sharp line. Moneyline: Pinnacle posts no First-5 moneyline, so the market ML is from one clean book (named in the column header, usually FanDuel) — a single source, not a blend. OUR ML = sim fair moneyline. Away on top, home on bottom; favorite in green. PROJECTED = RotoWire projected lineup; CONFIRMED = official lineup. Finished games show the final First-5 score and whether the sim's total/ML lean was on the right side — descriptive accuracy of a research sim, not a betting record or a demonstrated edge.