First-5 Sim vs Market · 2026-06-25

updated Jul 2, 3:07 AM ET · per-batter sim vs market · finished 7: total leans 5/7 right, ML leans 1/5 right
📊 Sim track record →

Days

2026-07-03
—
Tomorrow2026-07-02
7g
Today2026-07-01
11g2026-06-30
12g · final2026-06-29
7g · final2026-06-28
11g · final2026-06-27
10g · final2026-06-26
11g · final2026-06-25
8g2026-06-24
9g · final2026-06-23
10g · final2026-06-22
8g · final2026-06-21
9g2026-06-20
13g · final2026-06-19
11g · final2026-06-18
7g2026-06-16
10g · final2026-06-15
7g · final2026-06-14
4g · final2026-05-21
1g · final
SEA @ PITFINAL 1–3 (F5)12:36 PM ET
Our First-5 total3.90
Pinnacle4.5-0.6
TEAMOUR MLBetOnline ML
SEA-114-161
PIT+114+140
Full-game ML (current)SEA -139  ·  PIT +126 Pinnacle
total lean UNDER 4.5✓F5 ML lean AWAY✗
last sim Jun 25, 2:18 AM ET · 1000 sims
OAK @ SFFINAL 2–1 (F5)3:46 PM ET
Our First-5 total4.70
Pinnacle4.5+0.2
TEAMOUR MLBetOnline ML
OAK-198+125
SF+198-145
Full-game ML (current)OAK +121  ·  SF -132 Pinnacle
total lean OVER 4.5✗F5 ML lean AWAY✓
last sim Jun 25, 2:20 AM ET · 1000 sims
HOU @ DETFINAL 0–0 (F5)6:41 PM ET
Our First-5 total4.29
Pinnacle5.0-0.7
TEAMOUR MLBetOnline ML
HOU+104+101
DET-104-120
Full-game ML (current)HOU +102  ·  DET -111 Pinnacle
total lean UNDER 5✓F5 ML lean HOMEpush
last sim Jun 25, 2:17 AM ET · 1000 sims
PHI @ WSHFINAL 0–5 (F5)6:46 PM ET
Our First-5 total3.72
Pinnacle4.0-0.3
TEAMOUR MLBetOnline ML
PHI-150-172
WSH+150+151
Full-game ML (current)PHI -164  ·  WSH +150 Pinnacle
total lean UNDER 4✗F5 ML lean AWAY✗
last sim Jun 25, 2:18 AM ET · 1000 sims
TEX @ TORFINAL 6–3 (F5)7:08 PM ET
Our First-5 total4.42
Pinnacle4.0+0.4
TEAMOUR MLBetOnline ML
TEX+118+117
TOR-118-137
Full-game ML (current)TEX +126  ·  TOR -137 Pinnacle
total lean OVER 4✓F5 ML lean HOME✗
last sim Jun 25, 2:21 AM ET · 1000 sims
CHC @ NYMFINAL 0–0 (F5)7:11 PM ET
Our First-5 total3.29
Pinnacle4.5-1.2
TEAMOUR MLBetOnline ML
CHC+114-112
NYM-114-108
Full-game ML (current)CHC -108  ·  NYM -102 Pinnacle
total lean UNDER 4.5✓F5 ML lean HOMEpush
last sim Jun 25, 2:21 AM ET · 1000 sims
NYY @ BOSFINAL 2–4 (F5)7:11 PM ET
Our First-5 total4.21
Pinnacle4.0+0.2
TEAMOUR MLBetOnline ML
NYY-119-156
BOS+119+136
Full-game ML (current)NYY -135  ·  BOS +125 Pinnacle
total lean OVER 4✓F5 ML lean AWAY✗
last sim Jun 25, 2:18 AM ET · 1000 sims
ARI @ STLPROJECTED7:46 PM ET
Our First-5 total4.41
Market—
TEAMOUR MLMKT ML
ARI-117—
STL+117—
last sim Jun 25, 2:18 AM ET · 1000 sims
Our First-5 total = sim mean (per-pitch sims; count chosen above, 1000 default — “Re-sim” on a card re-runs just that game). Total = Pinnacle’s First-5 total (Δ = ours − Pinnacle), the sharp line. Moneyline: Pinnacle posts no First-5 moneyline, so the market ML is from one clean book (named in the column header, usually FanDuel) — a single source, not a blend. OUR ML = sim fair moneyline. Away on top, home on bottom; favorite in green. PROJECTED = RotoWire projected lineup; CONFIRMED = official lineup. Finished games show the final First-5 score and whether the sim's total/ML lean was on the right side — descriptive accuracy of a research sim, not a betting record or a demonstrated edge.