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First-5 Sim — Bets (7%+ edge vs the opening line)
games where the sim's best-equity F5 pick beats the opening line by ≥7% — the ones we'd bet · Jul 2, 3:07 AM ET
Record — 7%+ edge bets (settled)
+13.58u
7%+ edge bets (28-20, 7P) · ROI +26.1%
0
live bets on the current slate
Our bets — current slate (7%+ edge)
no 7%+ edge bets on the current slate
Every graded 7%+ bet (55)
Date
Game
Bet
Open
Edge
W/L
units
2026-06-30
SF@ARI
ARI
-110
+26.9%
✓
+1.00
2026-06-30
PIT@PHI
PIT
+185
+16.8%
✗
-1.00
2026-06-30
NYM@TOR
NYM
-103
+15.3%
✓
+1.00
2026-06-30
MIN@HOU
HOU
+108
+16.8%
✓
+1.08
2026-06-30
LAA@SEA
LAA
+152
+8.3%
push
+0.00
2026-06-30
DET@NYY
DET
-106
+21.7%
✓
+1.00
2026-06-29
SF@ARI
SF
+110
+16.9%
✗
-1.00
2026-06-29
LAD@OAK
OAK
-130
+12.0%
✗
-1.30
2026-06-29
DET@NYY
DET
+105
+12.4%
✓
+1.05
2026-06-28
WSH@BAL
WSH
+163
+8.8%
✓
+1.63
2026-06-28
LAD@SD
SD
+109
+40.6%
✗
-1.00
2026-06-28
KC@CWS
KC
+112
+42.2%
✓
+1.12
2026-06-28
HOU@DET
HOU
-123
+8.6%
✗
-1.23
2026-06-28
CIN@PIT
CIN
+105
+10.0%
✗
-1.00
2026-06-28
CHC@MIL
MIL
-165
+8.1%
✓
+1.00
2026-06-27
TEX@TOR
TEX
+164
+7.3%
✓
+1.64
2026-06-27
OAK@LAA
OAK
-106
+36.2%
✗
-1.06
2026-06-27
LAD@SD
SD
+178
+46.9%
push
+0.00
2026-06-27
CHC@MIL
CHC
+136
+19.4%
push
+0.00
2026-06-27
ATL@SF
ATL
+120
+11.1%
✗
-1.00
2026-06-26
WSH@BAL
WSH
-109
+13.9%
✗
-1.09
2026-06-26
TEX@TOR
TEX
-131
+8.6%
✓
+1.00
2026-06-26
SEA@CLE
CLE
-123
+38.0%
push
+0.00
2026-06-26
OAK@LAA
OAK
-125
+13.3%
✓
+1.00
2026-06-26
NYY@BOS
BOS
-112
+36.2%
✓
+1.00
2026-06-26
CHC@MIL
CHC
+215
+30.8%
✓
+2.15
2026-06-26
ARI@TB
ARI
+112
+17.4%
✗
-1.00
2026-06-25
SEA@PIT
PIT
+130
+7.7%
✓
+1.30
2026-06-25
OAK@SF
OAK
+115
+42.7%
✓
+1.15
2026-06-24
SEA@PIT
PIT
-123
+9.4%
✓
+1.00
2026-06-24
NYY@DET
DET
-149
+12.5%
push
+0.00
2026-06-23
SEA@PIT
SEA
-130
+7.8%
✗
-1.30
2026-06-23
NYY@DET
NYY
-112
+12.9%
✗
-1.12
2026-06-23
KC@TB
KC
+146
+10.7%
✓
+1.46
2026-06-23
ARI@STL
ARI
-108
+10.0%
push
+0.00
2026-06-22
LAD@MIN
MIN
+110
+30.2%
push
+0.00
2026-06-22
KC@TB
KC
+165
+42.0%
✓
+1.65
2026-06-22
CLE@CWS
CLE
-127
+24.0%
✗
-1.27
2026-06-22
ARI@STL
STL
-154
+20.7%
✓
+1.00
2026-06-21
SF@MIA
MIA
+131
+17.9%
✓
+1.31
2026-06-21
NYM@PHI
NYM
+152
+9.1%
✗
-1.00
2026-06-21
LAA@OAK
OAK
-119
+42.3%
✓
+1.00
2026-06-21
CWS@DET
CWS
-108
+9.9%
✗
-1.08
2026-06-21
BOS@SEA
BOS
+110
+14.7%
✗
-1.00
2026-06-21
BAL@LAD
BAL
+185
+65.6%
✓
+1.85
2026-06-20
SF@MIA
SF
+127
+23.6%
✗
-1.00
2026-06-20
SD@TEX
SD
+117
+17.0%
✓
+1.17
2026-06-20
NYM@PHI
NYM
+162
+19.2%
✗
-1.00
2026-06-20
CLE@HOU
CLE
+120
+22.6%
✓
+1.20
2026-06-20
CIN@NYY
CIN
+142
+48.3%
✓
+1.42
2026-06-20
BAL@LAD
BAL
+184
+19.6%
✓
+1.83
2026-06-19
STL@KC
KC
-108
+9.1%
✓
+1.00
2026-06-19
MIN@ARI
MIN
+138
+34.9%
✗
-1.00
2026-06-19
CLE@HOU
CLE
-105
+11.8%
✓
+1.00
2026-06-19
CIN@NYY
CIN
+202
+27.4%
✗
-1.00
For context — all picks (no edge gate)
+7.79u
every ML pick vs open (52-46) · ROI +6.8%
-13.24u
totals over/under vs open (51-56) · ROI -10.8%
A bet = the sim's best-equity First-5 side (our win% × the OPENING decimal − 1)
clears a 7% edge vs the opening F5 line (Pinnacle/consensus open, locked; DraftKings when no Pinnacle
open). Staking: favorites — bet to win 1 unit (a win pays +1u, a loss costs the lay,
e.g. −1.8u at −180); underdogs — risk 1 unit (a win pays the plus odds,
e.g. +1.30u at +130; a loss costs −1u). An F5 tie is a push; ROI = net units ÷ total
risked. Every pick is a genuine PRE-GAME sim prediction (predicted ≥5 min before first pitch);
leak-safe, paper, no real stake. The sim has no demonstrated betting edge — this is the instrument that
decides whether the 7%-edge bets actually win.