First-5 Sim vs Market · 2026-06-21

updated Jul 2, 3:07 AM ET · per-batter sim vs market · finished 8: total leans 6/8 right, ML leans 5/8 right
📊 Sim track record →

Days

2026-07-03
—
Tomorrow2026-07-02
7g
Today2026-07-01
11g2026-06-30
12g · final2026-06-29
7g · final2026-06-28
11g · final2026-06-27
10g · final2026-06-26
11g · final2026-06-25
8g2026-06-24
9g · final2026-06-23
10g · final2026-06-22
8g · final2026-06-21
9g2026-06-20
13g · final2026-06-19
11g · final2026-06-18
7g2026-06-16
10g · final2026-06-15
7g · final2026-06-14
4g · final2026-05-21
1g · final
WSH @ TBFINAL 2–1 (F5)1:41 PM ET
Our First-5 total4.49
Pinnacle4.5-0.0
TEAMOUR MLBetOnline ML
WSH+112-105
TB-112-115
Full-game ML (current)WSH +120  ·  TB -130 Pinnacle
total lean UNDER 4.5✓F5 ML lean HOME✗
last sim Jun 21, 2:22 AM ET · 1000 sims
SF @ MIAFINAL 1–2 (F5)1:41 PM ET
Our First-5 total4.02
Pinnacle4.5-0.5
TEAMOUR MLBetOnline ML
SF+104-164
MIA-104+145
Full-game ML (current)SF -139  ·  MIA +127 Pinnacle
total lean UNDER 4.5✓F5 ML lean HOME✓
last sim Jun 21, 2:23 AM ET · 1000 sims
CWS @ DETFINAL 0–1 (F5)1:41 PM ET
Our First-5 total4.22
Pinnacle4.5-0.3
TEAMOUR MLBetOnline ML
CWS-132-106
DET+132-114
Full-game ML (current)CWS +103  ·  DET -111 Pinnacle
total lean UNDER 4.5✓F5 ML lean AWAY✗
last sim Jun 21, 2:21 AM ET · 1000 sims
CLE @ HOUFINAL 1–2 (F5)2:11 PM ET
Our First-5 total4.37
Pinnacle4.5-0.1
TEAMOUR MLBetOnline ML
CLE+142+110
HOU-142-130
Full-game ML (current)CLE +118  ·  HOU -127 Pinnacle
total lean UNDER 4.5✓F5 ML lean HOME✓
last sim Jun 21, 2:21 AM ET · 1000 sims
TOR @ CHCPROJECTED2:21 PM ET
Our First-5 total3.92
Market—
TEAMOUR MLMKT ML
TOR-111—
CHC+111—
last sim Jun 21, 2:23 AM ET · 1000 sims
LAA @ OAKFINAL 4–5 (F5)4:06 PM ET
Our First-5 total3.76
Pinnacle4.5-0.7
TEAMOUR MLBetOnline ML
LAA+341-100
OAK-341-120
Full-game ML (current)LAA +119  ·  OAK -128 Pinnacle
total lean UNDER 4.5✗F5 ML lean HOME✓
last sim Jun 21, 2:34 AM ET · 1000 sims
BOS @ SEAFINAL 1–2 (F5)4:11 PM ET
Our First-5 total3.50
Pinnacle3.5-0.0
TEAMOUR MLBetOnline ML
BOS-120+110
SEA+120-130
Full-game ML (current)BOS +109  ·  SEA -118 Pinnacle
total lean UNDER 3.5✓F5 ML lean AWAY✗
last sim Jun 21, 2:21 AM ET · 1000 sims
BAL @ LADFINAL 6–1 (F5)4:11 PM ET
Our First-5 total5.17
Pinnacle5.0+0.2
TEAMOUR MLBetOnline ML
BAL-139+189
LAD+139-227
Full-game ML (current)BAL +206  ·  LAD -227 Pinnacle
total lean OVER 5✓F5 ML lean AWAY✓
last sim Jun 21, 2:21 AM ET · 1000 sims
NYM @ PHIFINAL 1–6 (F5)7:21 PM ET
Our First-5 total3.15
Pinnacle4.5-1.3
TEAMOUR MLBetOnline ML
NYM+131+170
PHI-131-196
Full-game ML (current)NYM +152  ·  PHI -167 Pinnacle
total lean UNDER 4.5✗F5 ML lean HOME✓
last sim Jun 21, 2:23 AM ET · 1000 sims
Our First-5 total = sim mean (per-pitch sims; count chosen above, 1000 default — “Re-sim” on a card re-runs just that game). Total = Pinnacle’s First-5 total (Δ = ours − Pinnacle), the sharp line. Moneyline: Pinnacle posts no First-5 moneyline, so the market ML is from one clean book (named in the column header, usually FanDuel) — a single source, not a blend. OUR ML = sim fair moneyline. Away on top, home on bottom; favorite in green. PROJECTED = RotoWire projected lineup; CONFIRMED = official lineup. Finished games show the final First-5 score and whether the sim's total/ML lean was on the right side — descriptive accuracy of a research sim, not a betting record or a demonstrated edge.