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Paper Lines — Favorites · 2026
Every game's market favorite, tracked per model · paper · updated Jul 02, 02:03 AM ET
Favorites standings (all 2026) — sorted by ROI
Model Record Units ROI LOGISTIC blended 204-156 -17.6u -3.3% LOGISTIC L30D 182-147 -26.5u -5.5% LOGISTIC (baseline) 203-165 -36.1u -6.6% CatBoost 130-119 -41.5u -11.2% LightGBM 171-160 -58.9u -12.0% XGBoost 114-110 -43.1u -12.9%
Games — 2026-07-01
CWS@BAL FAV BAL -135
2026-07-01 · Wed 12:36 PM ET · pregame
Model on fav Win% W/L Units no model backs the favorite
TEX@CLE FAV CLE -110
2026-07-01 · Wed 01:11 PM ET · pregame
Model on fav Win% W/L Units no model backs the favorite
WSH@BOS FAV BOS -147
2026-07-01 · Wed 01:36 PM ET · pregame
Model on fav Win% W/L Units no model backs the favorite
DET@NYY FAV NYY -144
2026-07-01 · Wed 01:36 PM ET · pregame
Model on fav Win% W/L Units no model backs the favorite
SD@CHC FAV CHC -128
2026-07-01 · Wed 02:21 PM ET · pregame
Model on fav Win% W/L Units no model backs the favorite
NYM@TOR FAV NYM -115
2026-07-01 · Wed 03:08 PM ET · pregame
Model on fav Win% W/L Units LOGISTIC (baseline) 51% · —
PIT@PHI FAV PHI -137
2026-07-01 · Wed 06:41 PM ET · pregame
Model on fav Win% W/L Units CatBoost 52% · — LOGISTIC blended 53% · — LightGBM 51% · — XGBoost 53% · —
STL@ATL FAV ATL -129
2026-07-01 · Wed 07:16 PM ET · pregame
Model on fav Win% W/L Units XGBoost 52% · —
TB@KC FAV TB -138
2026-07-01 · Wed 07:41 PM ET · pregame
Model on fav Win% W/L Units no model backs the favorite
MIN@HOU FAV HOU -123
2026-07-01 · Wed 08:11 PM ET · pregame
Model on fav Win% W/L Units LOGISTIC L30D 50% · —
CIN@MIL FAV MIL -160
2026-07-01 · Wed 08:11 PM ET · pregame
Model on fav Win% W/L Units LOGISTIC L30D 53% · — LOGISTIC blended 56% · —
MIA@COL FAV MIA -157
2026-07-01 · Wed 08:41 PM ET · pregame
Model on fav Win% W/L Units CatBoost 52% · — LOGISTIC (baseline) 54% · — LOGISTIC L30D 54% · — LOGISTIC blended 53% · — LightGBM 52% · —
SF@ARI FAV ARI -118
2026-07-01 · Wed 09:41 PM ET · pregame
Model on fav Win% W/L Units LOGISTIC (baseline) 50% · — LOGISTIC L30D 52% · — LOGISTIC blended 52% · — XGBoost 52% · —
LAD@OAK FAV LAD -187
2026-07-01 · Wed 09:41 PM ET · pregame
Model on fav Win% W/L Units CatBoost 51% · — LOGISTIC (baseline) 55% · —
The FAVORITE = the market's lower-priced side; a model is credited when it also favored that side. Staked bet-to-win-1u (a win pays +1u, a loss pays the lay). ROI = net units / units risked. Opening line, PAPER ONLY. Favorites have been a money-loser across every model this year — this page is the receipt.