↻ Refresh in progress — pulling new lines & re-running predictions… this page updates automatically when it finishes.
Side-by-side comparison of where each surface lands today. Diagnostic only — no betting decisions made here.
Game cards · who picked what
One card per game (chronological by start time). Each card shows market Open / Current + ensemble Fair (raw) + Fair (calibrated) for both sides, which of the 4 surfaces (Alibi · Flyer · Today's Best · Side Model) picked each side, plus a per-model breakdown table inside the card (sidemodel format) showing each production ML model's pick, Open / Current, Fair (raw), Fair (calibrated), and Edge in cents vs the current market.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals
1:16 PM ET
Pittsburgh Pirates (away)
St. Louis Cardinals (home)
| Model / Source | Pick | Open / Current | Fair (raw) | Fair (calibrated) | Edge |
|---|
| ml_logit_baseline * | STL (home) | +110 / +104 | -109 | -106 | -13c |
| ml_lgbm | STL (home) | +110 / +104 | +101 | +102 | -2c |
| ml_xgb | STL (home) | +110 / +104 | -131 | +103 | -34c |
| ml_catboost | STL (home) | +110 / +104 | +105 | +133 | +0c |
| ml_logit_blended | STL (home) | +110 / +104 | +109 | -106 | +4c |
| ml_logit_all_l30d | — | — / — | — | — | — |
| Alibi | STL (home) | +110 / +104 | -109 | — | -13c |
| Flyer | STL (home) | +110 / +104 | — | — | — |
| Today's Picks | STL (home) | +110 / +104 | -106 | — | -9c |
| Side Model | STL (home) | +110 / +104 | -104 | +105 | -8c |
4 sources only| Side | Open | Current | Alibi | Flyer | Today's Picks | Side Model | Cons |
|---|
| PIT (away) | -120 | -114 | | | | | — |
|---|
| STL (home) | +110 | +104 | BET -109 (+3.2pp) | BET STL -109 | BET -106 (+2.4pp) | BET -104 (+2.0pp) | 4of4 +1.9pp |
|---|
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
6:41 PM ET
Atlanta Braves (away)
Miami Marlins (home)
| Model / Source | Pick | Open / Current | Fair (raw) | Fair (calibrated) | Edge |
|---|
| ml_logit_baseline * | MIA (home) | +122 / +122 | -107 | -106 | -29c |
| ml_lgbm | MIA (home) | +122 / +122 | -127 | -114 | -48c |
| ml_xgb | MIA (home) | +122 / +122 | -100 | +103 | -22c |
| ml_catboost | MIA (home) | +122 / +122 | -114 | +100 | -36c |
| ml_logit_blended | MIA (home) | +122 / +122 | +105 | -106 | -17c |
| ml_logit_all_l30d | — | — / — | — | — | — |
| Alibi | MIA (home) | +122 / +122 | -107 | — | -29c |
| Flyer | MIA (home) | +122 / +122 | — | — | — |
| Today's Picks | MIA (home) | +122 / +122 | -107 | — | -28c |
| Side Model | MIA (home) | +122 / +122 | -108 | -104 | -30c |
4 sources only| Side | Open | Current | Alibi | Flyer | Today's Picks | Side Model | Cons |
|---|
| ATL (away) | -135 | -132 | | | | | — |
|---|
| MIA (home) | +122 | +122 | BET -107 (+6.7pp) | BET MIA -107 | BET -107 (+6.6pp) | BET -108 (+7.0pp) | 4of4 +5.1pp |
|---|
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
9:41 PM ET
Colorado Rockies (away)
Arizona Diamondbacks (home)
| Model / Source | Pick | Open / Current | Fair (raw) | Fair (calibrated) | Edge |
|---|
| ml_logit_baseline * | COL (away) | +170 / +186 | +145 | +106 | -40c |
| ml_lgbm | COL (away) | +170 / +186 | +129 | +114 | -57c |
| ml_xgb | COL (away) | +170 / +186 | +141 | -103 | -44c |
| ml_catboost | COL (away) | +170 / +186 | +162 | +100 | -23c |
| ml_logit_blended | COL (away) | +170 / +186 | +152 | +141 | -33c |
| ml_logit_all_l30d | — | — / — | — | — | — |
| Alibi | COL (away) | +170 / +186 | +145 | — | -40c |
| Flyer | COL (away) | +170 / +186 | — | — | — |
| Today's Picks | COL (away) | +170 / +186 | +140 | — | -45c |
| Side Model | COL (away) | +170 / +186 | +145 | +111 | -40c |
4 sources only| Side | Open | Current | Alibi | Flyer | Today's Picks | Side Model | Cons |
|---|
| COL (away) | +170 | +186 | BET +145 (+5.8pp) | BET COL +145 | BET +140 (+6.6pp) | BET +145 (+5.8pp) | 4of4 +4.6pp |
|---|
| ARI (home) | -189 | -204 | | | | | — |
|---|
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
4:06 PM ET
New York Mets (away)
Washington Nationals (home)
| Model / Source | Pick | Open / Current | Fair (raw) | Fair (calibrated) | Edge |
|---|
| ml_logit_baseline * | NYM (away) | -109 / -103 | -104 | +100 | -1c |
| ml_lgbm | WSH (home) | -101 / -105 | +101 | +102 | +6c |
| ml_xgb | WSH (home) | -101 / -105 | -116 | +103 | -10c |
| ml_catboost | WSH (home) | -101 / -105 | -174 | +100 | -69c |
| ml_logit_blended | WSH (home) | -101 / -105 | -132 | -141 | -26c |
| ml_logit_all_l30d | — | — / — | — | — | — |
| Alibi | — | — / — | — | — | — |
| Flyer | WSH (home) | -101 / -105 | — | — | — |
| Today's Picks | WSH (home) | -101 / -105 | -115 | — | -9c |
| Side Model | WSH (home) | -101 / -105 | -120 | -106 | -14c |
4 sources only| Side | Open | Current | Alibi | Flyer | Today's Picks | Side Model | Cons |
|---|
| NYM (away) | -109 | -103 | BET -104 (+0.3pp) | | | | 1of4 +0.3pp |
|---|
| WSH (home) | -101 | -105 | | BET WSH +104 | BET -115 (+2.1pp) | BET -120 (+3.2pp) | 3of4 +1.8pp |
|---|
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
7:05 PM ET
Toronto Blue Jays (away)
New York Yankees (home)
| Model / Source | Pick | Open / Current | Fair (raw) | Fair (calibrated) | Edge |
|---|
| ml_logit_baseline * | TOR (away) | +130 / +126 | +120 | +106 | -5c |
| ml_lgbm | NYY (home) | -141 / -137 | -153 | -152 | -16c |
| ml_xgb | NYY (home) | -141 / -137 | -146 | +103 | -8c |
| ml_catboost | NYY (home) | -141 / -137 | -164 | +100 | -26c |
| ml_logit_blended | TOR (away) | +130 / +126 | +133 | +141 | +6c |
| ml_logit_all_l30d | — | — / — | — | — | — |
| Alibi | TOR (away) | +130 / +126 | +120 | — | -5c |
| Flyer | NYY (home) | -141 / -137 | — | — | — |
| Today's Picks | NYY (home) | -141 / -137 | -144 | — | -6c |
| Side Model | TOR (away) | +130 / +126 | +142 | +117 | +16c |
4 sources only| Side | Open | Current | Alibi | Flyer | Today's Picks | Side Model | Cons |
|---|
| TOR (away) | +130 | +126 | BET +120 (+1.2pp) | | | | 1of4 +1.2pp |
|---|
| NYY (home) | -141 | -137 | | BET NYY -120 | BET -144 (+1.1pp) | BET -142 (+0.9pp) | 3of4 +0.7pp |
|---|
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers
1:11 PM ET
Cleveland Guardians (away)
Detroit Tigers (home)
| Model / Source | Pick | Open / Current | Fair (raw) | Fair (calibrated) | Edge |
|---|
| ml_logit_baseline * | DET (home) | -112 / -116 | -107 | -106 | +9c |
| ml_lgbm | CLE (away) | +101 / +107 | -101 | -102 | -8c |
| ml_xgb | CLE (away) | +101 / +107 | -101 | -103 | -8c |
| ml_catboost | CLE (away) | +101 / +107 | +102 | -133 | -4c |
| ml_logit_blended | DET (home) | -112 / -116 | -109 | -106 | +7c |
| ml_logit_all_l30d | — | — / — | — | — | — |
| Alibi | — | — / — | — | — | — |
| Flyer | — | — / — | — | — | — |
| Today's Picks | CLE (away) | +101 / +107 | +102 | — | -4c |
| Side Model | CLE (away) | +101 / +107 | +103 | -105 | -3c |
4 sources only| Side | Open | Current | Alibi | Flyer | Today's Picks | Side Model | Cons |
|---|
| CLE (away) | +101 | +107 | | | BET +102 (+1.2pp) | BET +103 (+0.9pp) | 2of4 +1.0pp |
|---|
| DET (home) | -112 | -116 | | | | | — |
|---|
Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels
9:39 PM ET
Athletics (away)
Los Angeles Angels (home)
| Model / Source | Pick | Open / Current | Fair (raw) | Fair (calibrated) | Edge |
|---|
| ml_logit_baseline * | LAA (home) | -110 / -116 | -117 | -106 | +0c |
| ml_lgbm | OAK (away) | +100 / +107 | -102 | -102 | -9c |
| ml_xgb | LAA (home) | -110 / -116 | -107 | +103 | +9c |
| ml_catboost | OAK (away) | +100 / +107 | -118 | -160 | -24c |
| ml_logit_blended | OAK (away) | +100 / +107 | +101 | +106 | -5c |
| ml_logit_all_l30d | — | — / — | — | — | — |
| Alibi | LAA (home) | -110 / -116 | -117 | — | +0c |
| Flyer | — | — / — | — | — | — |
| Today's Picks | OAK (away) | +100 / +107 | +102 | — | -5c |
| Side Model | OAK (away) | +100 / +107 | +101 | -108 | -5c |
4 sources only| Side | Open | Current | Alibi | Flyer | Today's Picks | Side Model | Cons |
|---|
| OAK (away) | +100 | +107 | | | BET +102 (+1.2pp) | BET +101 (+1.4pp) | 2of4 +1.3pp |
|---|
| LAA (home) | -110 | -116 | BET -117 (+0.2pp) | | | | 1of4 +0.2pp |
|---|